New Middle East War Thread - Reports & Discussion Unless The Crisis Escalates

[Torch]

The USA is entering a pivotal period—you know why! This war will not continue beyond January 2027; under the current administration, many will try to save their political careers. The people have spoken!

That is not a fact. The “war” may very well continue. Trump is still the President and the Commander in Chief. The president does not get his powers through a coalition like a Prime minister. Only new law making will be effected. Now the Congress could (IMO will) impeach Trump. With the Senate locked up the opposition may remove him too. But all that does not mean the war ends. JD Vance could continue it. Thats as far down the civics rabbit hole we are going.

A hostile Congress and a President at War is a normal way of life and business in US history. Rarely are we united. (Now IMO, you are correct the war is effectively over. But do not state opinions here as facts)

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

The US pulling out of the Iran war will have lasting, potentially devastating consequences.

I am not going to suggest a course of action. That is beyond what The DEFCON Warning System does.

I am simply saying that if the US loses the US/Iran war, the potential for Iran to get a nuclear weapon increases.

 

[GBS61]

But do not state opinions here as facts)

No, my opinions are not facts; the only fact is that the Republicans got absolutely thrashed. I didn’t want to write that, but your comments often goad me into being more snarky.

 

[GBS61]

I am simply saying that if the US loses the US/Iran war, the potential for Iran to get a nuclear weapon increases.

I don’t see how the U.S. could defeat Iran; if it were possible, it would have been done already. The world will have no choice but to accept a nuclear-armed Iran, just as it has with North Korea. If I suggest a timeframe—say, until January 2027—to defeat Iran, it is because Congress would refuse to provide the necessary funding. It may well fall to the next president to resolve this. Trump never had a coherent strategy, and he certainly doesn’t have one today.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I don’t see how the U.S. could defeat Iran; if it were possible, it would have been done already.

I disagree. The US is perfectly capable of completely stopping Iran. But the political reality prevented it from doing so.

This has been true of the last several wars the US has been involved in.

Trump never had a coherent strategy, and he certainly doesn’t have one today.

It does seem to waiver.

 

[william]

No, my opinions are not facts; the only fact is that the Republicans got absolutely thrashed. I didn’t want to write that, but your comments often goad me into being more snarky.

Does this mean we're NOT going to get a shiny new battleship?

 

[GBS61]

I disagree. The US is perfectly capable of completely stopping Iran. But the political reality prevented it from doing so.

This has been true of the last several wars the US has been involved in.


It does seem to waiver.

Yes, with soldiers on the ground.
I just finished listening to Trump;
he keeps repeating the same thing. In my view, defeating Iran is not something that’s going to happen anytime soon.

 

[william]

Iran threatens Trump after midterm loss​

Iran has threatened to use “new weapons” against the US if Donald Trump decides to “betray” voters and launch strikes.

Tehran issued the warning after a humiliating defeat for the US president in the midterm elections, claiming the result as a vindication of Iranian resistance.

“If the US government betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a nightmare.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) went further, declaring that the midterm “disaster” for the Republican Party was the direct result of “America’s heavy defeat in the war it started against Iran”.

“If America or the Zionists take any action, Iran will respond differently than before, using a new doctrine and new conventional weapons technology,” said Hamidreza Moghaddamfar, an adviser to the IRGC’s commander in chief.

Should Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain allow their territory to be used for attacks, he added, “Iran’s strikes will go further” than the US bases. He said the assassination of Iranian officials or commanders would draw “surprising responses”.

Iran, Mr Moghaddamfar said, had “set aside the principles of symmetry and proportionality a long time ago”, and would retaliate “beyond any geographical limits”.

“The US sees the end of its hegemony as distant; we see it as near,” he added.

On Wednesday, Iranians poured into the streets across the country to mark Nov 4, known in Iran as the National Day of Fighting Global Arrogance, or Students’ Day.

It coincides with the anniversary of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, when more than 50 American diplomats and citizens were held captive by militants in Tehran’s US embassy.

Crowds chanted “Death to America”, as they do every year, but this time against the backdrop of an on-and-off war and an election that Tehran had cast as a victory.

After months of insisting it had bloodied a superpower, Iran can now point to a concrete political cost inflicted on Mr Trump at home and claim, however selectively, that US voters have ratified its narrative of the war.

MSN

 

[GBS61]

Does this mean we're NOT going to get a shiny new battleship?

It depends—on whether or not it’s useful. But I’m not the one who decides.

 

[Torch]

Mid terms almost always (always afaik) result in the party holding power getting beaten, usually solidly.

This however isn’t a solid beating, it was a thorough shellacking of the 2nd order. Rarely does the electorate render such decisive decisions.

Trump Republicans came in on a landslide and they are leaving in a tidal wave.

I doubt anyone will have the political will to pursue Iran unless they do something inordinately stupid.

Iran’s killing or wounding 10,000 of us doesn’t seem to pissed anyone off so I don’t know what else would.

 

[Torch]

Does this mean we're NOT going to get a shiny new battleship?

That was the funniest one liner I can remember here! Im still laughing (though there may be tears too)

“No battleship for you!”

 

[RiffRaff]

Iran state television and news media have broadcast a PSA to the public on surviving a nuclear strike:

This version has English translation. I have seen the original.

Other sources:

Iranian TV broadcasts chilling warning video on how to survive a nuclear strike

An eight-minute civil defence video has been aired, giving instructions to citizens on how to avoid the flash and decontaminate before sheltering.

metro.co.uk

Iran Broadcasts Nuclear Attack Survival Rules As Netanyahu-Trump ‘Pickax’ Strike Claim Sparks Panic

Iranian state television is broadcasting civil-defence instructions explaining how civilians should respond to a nuclear explosion and radioactive fallout, as extraordinary claims about a possible US nuclear option against Iran fuel anxiety in Tehran. The broadcasts come amid Tucker Carlson’s...

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Iran state television and news media have broadcast a PSA to the public on surviving a nuclear strike

I wonder how much this is propaganda and how much is what they actually believe.

We can tell by watching what the government actually does beyond propaganda videos.

 

[GBS61]

I wonder how much this is propaganda and how much is what they actually believe.

Tucker Carlson’s statement has made its way around the world,

Nowadays, fake news travels faster than missiles.

 

[RiffRaff]

I wonder how much this is propaganda and how much is what they actually believe.

We can tell by watching what the government actually does beyond propaganda videos.

What is the Iranian government actually doing beyond propaganda videos?

 

[Gaijin]

The US pulling out of the Iran war will have lasting, potentially devastating consequences.

I am not going to suggest a course of action. That is beyond what The DEFCON Warning System does.

I am simply saying that if the US loses the US/Iran war, the potential for Iran to get a nuclear weapon increases.

The US has already lost there war. There is no path to winning.

 

[willrod1989]

The US has already lost there war. There is no path to winning.

Exactly. The only two ways to "win" would be a ground invasion (which would be a pyrrhic victory at best) or the use of nuclear weapons. I'm reading into Trump's statements to finish Iran "quickly" as implying the use of nuclear weapons.

 

[GBS61]

Exactly. The only two ways to "win" would be a ground invasion (which would be a pyrrhic victory at best) or the use of nuclear weapons. I'm reading into Trump's statements to finish Iran "quickly" as implying the use of nuclear weapons.

Nuclear energy—no, it must not be:

disastrous geopolitical consequences, radiation, and a major escalation in the Middle East.

 

[RiffRaff]

Nuclear energy—no, it must not be:

disastrous geopolitical consequences, radiation, and a major escalation in the Middle East.

Everything you said is accurate, regardless of where a nuclear weapon is used. Why, then, do we even have nuclear weapons? That's a philosophical question, not a strategic one. For over half a century, everyone tried to convince themselves that nuclear weapons were a "deterrent weapon," designed only to prevent an enemy from using them first. Except, they weren't. Too many war scenarios based on a massive Soviet invasion of Europe using conventional forces resulted in a NATO first-use of nuclear weapons because it was assumed NATO could not defeat the Soviet Union conventionally. That doesn't meet the definition of a deterrent weapon. So "deterrence" was a lie.

Now, in the 21st century, we're no longer even trying to convince ourselves they are a deterrence. We're referring to them as offensive weapons, gambling that the use of a small tactical nuclear weapon will not escalate into a strategic exchange. That's a very dangerous game to play.

I've said this before and I'll say it again: The odds of a nuclear weapon being used in combat are 100% over a long enough timeline. As long as they exist, someone will eventually use one. The only questions are who, where, and when?

 

[willrod1989]

Iraq implements emergency response plans and deploys nuclear radiation monitoring systems along its border with Iran.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2118445786157756894