🗣️ | Middle East War | Full Scale War Still Seems Imminent as Deterrence Erodes & Brinkmanship Intensifies | ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

[Gaijin]

Iran has been kidnapping and murdering Americans since 1979.

We can go all the way back to 1956 if you like

 

[RiffRaff]

Will the democrats force a withdrawal when they gain power and allow iran to get the bomb? You know they are going to go for it after being bombed.

You're exactly right. And which party bombed them? At lease Democrats want to at least *attempt* diplomacy before starting another land war in Asia. And let's say Iran either already has or will soon have a working bomb. They know what will happen to them if they attempt to use it against anyone. Plus, they have no real reliable delivery system that can 100% defeat Israeli defenses. Don't get me wrong; no nation run by theocracy should ever have a nuclear weapon. But Iran pursuing the bomb is like a dog chasing a car. They won't know what to with it if they catch it.

I find it ironic that the dems seem to want to continue spending blood and treasure on the Ukraine, russia war but not on the iran war.
Why is that?

Because we have a written agreement, signed by the United States, pledging to "guarantee Ukraine's borders" as they existed in 1994. Russia signed that agreement as well. I'm really getting tired of reminding people about that. I'll also point out that Dems didn't do a damn thing when Russia invaded Crimea, which is shameful. America gave her word to Ukraine, and then broke that promise.

 

[Peter Griffin]

That was an interesting podcast, and I agree with most of it. What I don't agree with is the so called "Rules of War or the Morel Highground" he talked about. That is a good way to get troops killed especially when you have an enemy dressed as civilians or using civilians as human shields. Just look at the history of warfare through the ages. If you're going to send troops into combat worried about the "Rules of War or Morel Highground" don't send them at all. This idea of sending American men and women into combat with one hand tied behind their back has got to stop. War is a dirty messy business! IMO

He was pointing out the importance of establishing a proper ROE to partake in COIN operations AFTER the conventional fight is done. I agree with you, in a total conventional war ROE will largely go out the window for both sides, but when you are dealing with a force that has embedded itself within the civilian population for decades, you have to make it a priority to minimize CIVCAS when one of your main stated goals in said COIN ops is to dispel the unconventional influence that the IRGC holds on not only ordinary citizens in Iran, but on the greater public sentiment at large in regards to a potential expansion of the conflict. These tit for tat strikes on IRGC assets and Sepah forces are good on paper, but do little to sway the true outcome of our stated intent unless we use those strategies in tandem with a proper ROE and force multiplied defensive forces to pinpoint the pressure points of the IRGC and the Iranian economy at large. War is as messy as you let it be in an era of autonomous targeting and highly precise stand-off munitions, however we do not have to continue to fight like we did in Korea/Vietnam.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I know war is just politics by another name, but let's try to keep the vitriol down. Remember our rule against talking politics.

 

[william]

You're exactly right. And which party bombed them? At lease Democrats want to at least *attempt* diplomacy before starting another land war in Asia. I think the current administration looks like fools they have been "attempting" diplomacy so hard. You know "TACO" and all that. And let's say Iran either already has or will soon have a working bomb. They know what will happen to them if they attempt to use it against anyone. Plus, they have no real reliable delivery system that can 100% defeat Israeli defenses. How do we know they haven't had help with that. If I were to do it, I would do about three waves of ballistic missiles to overwhelm air defense and then sneak a low flying cruise missile in under the radar. Don't get me wrong; no nation run by theocracy should ever have a nuclear weapon. I agree. But Iran pursuing the bomb is like a dog chasing a car. They won't know what to with it if they catch it. I hope you're right. I think we know what Isreal will do if they attempt or heaven forbid succeed in using one. Not so sure about the US.


Because we have a written agreement, signed by the United States, pledging to "guarantee Ukraine's borders" That agreement could very well lead to WWIII if the US and Europe enforce it. The biggest mistake Ukraine ever did was agree to it. I attribute it to the appeasement of hitler before WWII. as they existed in 1994. Russia signed that agreement as well. I'm really getting tired of reminding people about that. I'll also point out that Dems didn't do a damn thing when Russia invaded Crimea, which is shameful. America gave her word to Ukraine and then broke that promise. Without American and European support Ukraine would collapse in short order today. The mistake was russia not facing a steal wall when they were building up for the invasion and I won't talk politics about who was in power when that all went down.

 

[william]

He was pointing out the importance of establishing a proper ROE to partake in COIN operations AFTER the conventional fight is done. The US should not be involved to a great extent in COIN operations after the fight is won. That should be the Iranian people's job with the US and yes UN overseers, mainly as administrators. Fight, win and get the combat troops out then you don't have to worry about ROE after. Let the bureaucrats oversee the Iranian government and pay the Iranian police and general military. I agree with you, in a total conventional war ROE will largely go out the window for both sides, but when you are dealing with a force that has embedded itself within the civilian population for decades, you have to make it a priority to minimize CIVCAS when one of your main stated goals in said COIN ops is to dispel the unconventional influence that the IRGC holds on not only ordinary citizens in Iran, but on the greater public sentiment at large in regards to a potential expansion of the conflict. These tit for tat strikes on IRGC assets and Sepah forces are good on paper, but do little to sway the true outcome of our stated intent unless we use those strategies in tandem with a proper ROE and force multiplied defensive forces to pinpoint the pressure points of the IRGC and the Iranian economy at large. War is as messy as you let it be in an era of autonomous targeting and highly precise stand-off munitions, however we do not have to continue to fight like we did in Korea/Vietnam.

 

[willrod1989]

Has anyone been seeing what's been being posted all over Twitter/X? There is nonstop talk of major military action after the US midterms, and the date November 17th keeps getting mentioned. I don't fully take a lot of stock in rumors, but I think it's interesting that it's starting to blow up the feeds.

 

[Publius]

You're exactly right. And which party bombed them? At lease Democrats want to at least *attempt* diplomacy before starting another land war in Asia. And let's say Iran either already has or will soon have a working bomb. They know what will happen to them if they attempt to use it against anyone. Plus, they have no real reliable delivery system that can 100% defeat Israeli defenses. Don't get me wrong; no nation run by theocracy should ever have a nuclear weapon. But Iran pursuing the bomb is like a dog chasing a car. They won't know what to with it if they catch it.


Because we have a written agreement, signed by the United States, pledging to "guarantee Ukraine's borders" as they existed in 1994. Russia signed that agreement as well. I'm really getting tired of reminding people about that. I'll also point out that Dems didn't do a damn thing when Russia invaded Crimea, which is shameful. America gave her word to Ukraine, and then broke that promise.

Mostly agree but two thoughts.
When considering the assorted long term acts of violence Iran has perpetrated towards the US directly and through proxies. Is it unreasonable to conclude we’ve been in a low grade state of war with Iran for several decades.
Have we forgotten Iranian contributions to IED bombings in Iraq?

Second thing how many people realize that the JCPOA agreement signed in 2015 with limits on enrichment Iranian enrichment expired on Oct 18th 2025?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) at a Glance | Arms Control Association

www.armscontrol.org

Sanctions were lifted and we were back to a weak and unverified inspection process.

In 2021 Iran had already started putting restrictions on inspections that where agreed to in the JCPOC 2015 doc.

Iran, IAEA Reach Monitoring Agreement | Arms Control Association

www.armscontrol.org

I’m not saying doing what we did with bombings were the right step.

But there were already signs were not going to honor inspection by IAeA. And in Oct 2025 there were going to be free to start enrichment again.

So our deciding to go after Iran wasn’t being made in a vacuum.
It’s just something to consider

 

[Publius]

Has anyone been seeing what's been being posted all over Twitter/X? There is nonstop talk of major military action after the US midterms, and the date November 17th keeps getting mentioned. I don't fully take a lot of stock in rumors, but I think it's interesting that it's starting to blow up the feeds.

And potentially domestic protest and violence as well.