🗣️ | UA-NATO/RU | Crisis Environment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[DEFCON Warning System]

Look at the movement towards deterrence in 2022 when the west actively knew the Russians were debating it, there’s zero of that movement taking place today.

I am reading things differently.

No one in Russia was seriously contemplating using nukes in 2022.

Today, Russia is starting to contemplate it. Not enough to have a Durma debate. But in corridors and offices, yes.

 

[Snowfall]

I am reading things differently.

No one in Russia was seriously contemplating using nukes in 2022.

Today, Russia is starting to contemplate it. Not enough to have a Durma debate. But in corridors and offices, yes.

In 2022 Russian generals were actively discussing the scenarios in which they would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. I remember a video from this site that concerned me so much that I still remember it, where you stated that western leaders placed the odds of Russian nuclear use in the double digits, and I 100% agreed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html

As compared to today where western leaders discuss numerous other scenarios, but routinely outright deny the risk of Putin using nukes rather than stating “we hope he won’t” like they were in fall of 2022.

Are there still scenarios where Putin could and would reach for nukes over the war in Ukraine? Absolutely, looking at Crimea for sure. But I really don’t think we’re anywhere near them, and I certainly don’t think we’re anywhere close to as dangerous of a situation as 2022 was.

 

[Publius]

Tactical nuke use first. Absolutely the US first to use or israel. Definitely not your so called enemies.

To claim that Russia would not launch a first strike lacks credulity given the repeated threats made by officials in and out of government in Russia during the first 21/2 years of the war.

It also goes against their revised nuclear doctrine released in 2021. You know that “escalate to deescalate”.

I am not saying the US or another would not also consider launching a first strike. Like say China.

The problem with saying Israel or DPRK would initiate a first strike is problematic.
Not because neither might not consider it.
But what would be the conditions that provoked either to resort to a first strike.
A massive chemical attack on Israel very will might instigate a nuclear response.
But especially with Israel if they launched a strike on Tehran. The political out cry EVEN in the US would be overwhelming.


Nuclear war is more likely to be stumbled into, than strategically planned. And in that regard any nuclear state is a candidate for slipping on the sidewalk and jerking the trigger.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

In 2022 Russian generals were actively discussing the scenarios in which they would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

What Generals discuss is irrelevant. It is what the politicians discuss.

I remember a video from this site that concerned me so much that I still remember it, where you stated that western leaders placed the odds of Russian nuclear use in the double digits, and I 100% agreed.

I don't ever remember saying that unless we were quoting someone else.

but routinely outright deny the risk of Putin using nukes

There are three possibilities:

1. They truly believe Russia won't
2. Their head is in the sand
3. They are trying to keep the panic at the low sweat stage

 

[Publius]

I am reading things differently.

No one in Russia was seriously contemplating using nukes in 2022.

Today, Russia is starting to contemplate it. Not enough to have a Durma debate. But in corridors and offices, yes.

What about their revised nuclear doctrine released in 21 or 22.
Formalized by Putin in 24.

I still regard this as largely bluster. But the escalate to de-escalate when the government In Moscow is at risk. Isn’t this pretty much the door to justify a nuclear first strike.