🗣️ | UA-NATO/RU | Crisis Environment | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

[Snowfall]

The question is though: which is true?

Simple, both. They use the combination as information warfare, so they can stir up trouble and make people anxious, but then say “no we never actually said that” even though everyone with a brain knows that’s exactly what they were implying.

 

[DrMantisToboggan]

A NATO official said on Sunday Russia is stepping up hybrid acts in Europe, but that at this time the alliance sees no imminent threat of ‌attack.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...ficial-says-2026-08-30/?utm_source=reddit.com
Click to expand...

Translated from German
Explosive devices have been found near a power plant in Brandenburg. There is no longer any danger.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094765269210063116

This is starting to get worrying (even more so on top of everything else). I wonder how much longer it’s going to be until things go from hybrid warfare to just….warfare. Can Russia even deny what they’re doing anymore with Germany scheduled to call them out? I feel that once they do, both counties are put on a path to escalation

 

[william]

wrong thread

 

[peterould]

This is starting to get worrying (even more so on top of everything else). I wonder how much longer it’s going to be until things go from hybrid warfare to just….warfare. Can Russia even deny what they’re doing anymore with Germany scheduled to call them out? I feel that once they do, both counties are put on a path to escalation

Dusting off my copy of Red Storm Rising....

 

[Snowfall]

This is starting to get worrying (even more so on top of everything else). I wonder how much longer it’s going to be until things go from hybrid warfare to just….warfare. Can Russia even deny what they’re doing anymore with Germany scheduled to call them out? I feel that once they do, both counties are put on a path to escalation

Germany will lump just about everything under hybrid warfare because it has no desire to escalate. The fact the Russians are acting the way they do, is a sign they feel the pressure. The last thing NATO wants to do, is give the Russians an easy win at home. So Germany will respond with sanctions, and giving weapons to Ukraine because that’s what’s actually hurting Russia.

 

[GBS61]

Dusting off my copy of Red Storm Rising....

In a modern-day Red Storm, a strictly bilateral confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact would no longer make sense. The fragmentation of the current world order would force the rewriting of fluid, opportunistic, and asymmetrical alliances. Here is the most realistic geopolitical configuration for a contemporary conflict:

1. The Axis of Disruption: The Expanded Eurasian Alliance. Russia could not stand up to NATO alone. It would rely on a network of states sharing a common interest: challenging Western hegemony. China as an “Ambiguous Partner”: Unlike the Warsaw Pact, where Moscow led everything, China would be the economic and technological giant of the alliance. To avoid total sanctions, Beijing would not officially engage in fighting in Europe. Behind the scenes, it would supply Russia with electronic chips, fuel, satellite imagery, and drone technology. Furthermore, China would use this opportunity to increase pressure on Taiwan or in the South China Sea, forcing the United States to divide its fleet between the Atlantic and Pacific.

Iran and North Korea as Arsenals: These two nations would act as massive industrial suppliers for Russia. Iran would saturate the conflict with swarms of low-cost drones and short-range ballistic missiles, while North Korea would empty its stockpiles of millions of artillery shells and heavy missiles to supply the European front. The Belarus-Africa Axis: Belarus would serve as a military outpost and missile launch base, while mercenary networks (successors to Wagner) would destabilize Western supplies of raw materials in Africa (the Sahel) to open indirect secondary fronts.

2. A Fragmented and Enlarged NATO: Faced with this threat, the Atlantic Alliance would exhibit new internal dynamics: The Pivot of the Eastern Bloc (The Front Line Alliance): Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states would no longer be buffer zones, but the true military engines of the European response. Poland would possess one of the most powerful conventional armies in Europe, and Finland would contribute its unique expertise in cyberwarfare and total resilience. The Dilemma of the Southern and Western Flanks: Tensions would arise within NATO. Some Western or Southern European countries (such as Turkey or Hungary) would attempt to mediate or restrict the use of their airspace, initially paralyzing political decision-making in Brussels, just as the Maskirovka ruse did in the original book. 3. The Rise of the Neutral “Global South”: The conflict would not divide the entire world into two clear camps. A third force would emerge through its refusal to choose. India and Brazil as Economic Arbiters: These powers would refuse to implement Western sanctions. India would continue to buy Russian oil and trade with the West, becoming the financial hub allowing both sides to maintain secret channels of communication. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia: Masters of energy prices, they would refuse to increase their production to help the West, provoking the global oil and economic shock necessary for Russia to weaken European democracies from within.

 

[Snowfall]

This is starting to get worrying (even more so on top of everything else). I wonder how much longer it’s going to be until things go from hybrid warfare to just….warfare. Can Russia even deny what they’re doing anymore with Germany scheduled to call them out? I feel that once they do, both counties are put on a path to escalation

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094862291095417234

Here’s your case and point of my previous comment

 

[Snowfall]

The Pivot of the Eastern Bloc (The Front Line Alliance): Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states would no longer be buffer zones, but the true military engines of the European response. Poland would possess one of the most powerful conventional armies in Europe, and Finland would contribute its unique expertise in cyberwarfare and total resilience.

This is an excellent write up. I think a lot of people severely underestimate how much the idea of conflict on the eastern flank has changed with the introduction of Sweden and Finland into NATO and the massive military build of Poland. It has, in my opinion, turned the Suwalki gap into a much more defendable position for NATO.

 

[GBS61]

G20 Photo Boycott Erupts Over Russia’s Return

The surprise guest at the G20 summit was Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. His unexpected presence at the meeting of finance ministers in Asheville, North Carolina, sparked significant tensions with European representatives.

The context of his visit
American invitation: Usually treated as persona non grata since the invasion of Ukraine, Anton Siluanov was invited by the administration of Donald Trump, who held the G20 presidency.

Strategic discussions: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with him privately to present the 28-point American peace plan aimed at ending the Ukrainian conflict.

Washington's justification: The White House stated that it was "not afraid to talk to the people who matter" in order to stop the bloodshed.

The European Union's Anger
Disturbing Signal:

European leaders, notably German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, strongly condemned this rapprochement, calling the situation extremely disturbing.

Exclusion from the Photo: As a sign of protest, the European bloc demanded and obtained that the Russian minister be excluded from the traditional summit photo. The official photo was ultimately taken discreetly, away from the press.

 

[GBS61]

I haven't found much in the American media about this news.

I asked the artificial intelligence this question:

Its answer:
It's perfectly normal that you haven't found many details in the major American media outlets, because the U.S. Treasury Department deliberately blocked and barred several major American business media outlets from accessing this G20 summit in Asheville.

This unprecedented restriction explains the limited media coverage across the Atlantic through three key elements:

1. Major media outlets excluded from the summit

Targeted organizations: Accredited journalists from leading organizations such as The New York Times, Bloomberg News, and The Wall Street Journal were denied access to the meetings by the Trump administration.

An unprecedented decision: Observers and press unions emphasize that the simultaneous exclusion of such institutions is a historic first for a U.S. government organizing an international summit.

Newsroom reactions: The New York Times officially denounced a "blatant attempt to evade public control" and a direct attack on press freedom.

NBC News obtained details from anonymous sources close to the European delegations, confirming that tensions had risen between the two ministers.

The US is doing exactly the same thing as Russia with the media.

 

[GBS61]

The secret and unexpected meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Asheville, North Carolina, focused on the Trump administration's 28-point peace plan regarding the war in Ukraine.

This draft document, prepared without prior consultation with Kyiv or its European allies, incorporates the core of Moscow's maximalist demands.

The Main Points of the 28 Points
Although the full and detailed text of each point has not been fully ratified or implemented (and has since evolved during talks with Kyiv), the fundamental aspects of this Russian-American plan revolve around the following themes:

Sovereignty and Non-Aggression:

Reaffirmation of Ukraine's sovereignty (point 1). Conclusion of a comprehensive non-aggression pact between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe (point 2).

Territorial concessions:
De facto recognition of Crimea as Russian.
Complete transfer of the Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) to Russia, including areas still under the control of the Ukrainian army.

Security and military status:

Definitive renunciation by Ukraine of its NATO membership. Absolute prohibition on the stationing of NATO troops or foreign forces on Ukrainian soil.
Drastic capping of the size of the Ukrainian army (proposed at a maximum of 600,000 troops).

International economy and geopolitics:

Gradual lifting of certain sanctions and potential reintegration of Russia into a broader framework (the G8, through Moscow's reintegration into the G7).

Provisions concerning the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and freedom of commercial transit in the Black Sea

Reactions and tensions at the G20

European anger: The surprise summons of Russian Foreign Minister Anton Siluanov to this G20 summit and the discreet discussion of this plan have provoked strong irritation among European partners (particularly Germany), who see it as a unilateral attempt to normalize relations with Moscow.

Ottawa's unease: Canada, through its Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, expressed deep unease regarding this American move, while confirming its commitment to maintaining a united front with Europe in support of Ukraine.

Kyiv's opposition: Ukraine asserted that it had not been involved or informed beforehand of this new behind-the-scenes diplomatic offensive, reiterating that no definitive territorial cession could be accepted without its sovereign approval.

 

[RiffRaff]

Safe isn't the word. "Safer", maybe.

I would take it one step further and call him "less dangerous" rather than indicate safety is any part of the equation with him.

 

[william]

This is an excellent write up. I think a lot of people severely underestimate how much the idea of conflict on the eastern flank has changed with the introduction of Sweden and Finland into NATO and the massive military build of Poland. It has, in my opinion, turned the Suwalki gap into a much more defendable position for NATO.

Years ago, during the height of the cold war I had a friend who was in the Army, stationed in Germany, and he told me Russian tanks coming through that gap would be like "shooting fish in a barrol."

 

[william]

G20 Photo Boycott Erupts Over Russia’s Return

The surprise guest at the G20 summit was Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. His unexpected presence at the meeting of finance ministers in Asheville, North Carolina, sparked significant tensions with European representatives.

The context of his visit
American invitation: Usually treated as persona non grata since the invasion of Ukraine, Anton Siluanov was invited by the administration of Donald Trump, who held the G20 presidency.

Strategic discussions: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with him privately to present the 28-point American peace plan aimed at ending the Ukrainian conflict.

Washington's justification: The White House stated that it was "not afraid to talk to the people who matter" in order to stop the bloodshed.

The European Union's Anger
Disturbing Signal:

European leaders, notably German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, strongly condemned this rapprochement, calling the situation extremely disturbing.

Exclusion from the Photo: As a sign of protest, the European bloc demanded and obtained that the Russian minister be excluded from the traditional summit photo. The official photo was ultimately taken discreetly, away from the press.

Yeah, this caught me by surprise also. I don't think russia should have been invited while they are firing missiles and drones into Ukraine. If they want to be a member of the G20 or G8 again, GET OUT OF UKRAINE!

 

[william]

What's old is new again.

Armed with nothing but an assault rifle in an open cockpit, Ukrainian gunners are hunting Russian drones from Soviet-era Yak-52 propeller planes. Three low-cost aircraft donated by a Dutch NGO are now patrolling the Odesa region, and crews say they can shoot down multiple Iranian-designed Shahed drones in a single flight.

Western ingenuity! Love it!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2095093984137822526

 

[peterould]

Years ago, during the height of the cold war I had a friend who was in the Army, stationed in Germany, and he told me Russian tanks coming through that gap would be like "shooting fish in a barrol."

Er, the Suwalki Gap was deep inside the Iron Curtain.

Are you talking about the Fulda Gap?