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🗣️US-Israel (&) Iran-Lebanon | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

DarkNoon

DarkNoon

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I’m devastated because I thought this was the decisive moment, and it wasn’t. This was the final nail in Americas coffin it made itself.

I have nothing else to say. 💦👐
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Do we have any information on what the peace deal contains?

Also note that it isn't being signed until the 19th. Lots can happen between now and then. And afterwards.
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I think it’s gonna be awhile before we find out. Neither side is going to tell the whole truth right now, but I can’t imagine the U.S. signing a deal that doesn’t involve at least the strait being opened and some sort of deal on nukes.
 
Let me get this straight. Israel is not party to the agreement, but a hard condition for Iran has been thus far that Israel stop striking Lebanon. The US and Lebanon are parties - which directly indicates that it is still a relevant term or Lebanon would not be involved - but the US is not the one striking Lebanon. Yes?

This agreement is going to be toilet paper

 
Snowfall said:
and some sort of deal on nukes.
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My concern is that the deal will be "we'll discuss it later". Meaning...nothing.

Winnitude said:
Let me get this straight. Israel is not party to the agreement, but a hard condition for Iran has been thus far that Israel stop striking Lebanon.
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This would be an extreme betrayal of Israel.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
This would be an extreme betrayal of Israel.
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I edited my post to source where I read the related info. I am not sure what you mean, whether it would be a betrayal on Israel's part of they continued strikes and sabotaged the deal or if it would be a betrayal on the US part to push them into a deal that requires them to stop fighting in Lebanon, but Israeli strikes on lebanon have reactivated fighting in this conflict already once and it has been publicly one of Iran's demands that they end. So it raises the concern, if Israel isn't party to this agreement, then it may be empty. Israel continues their operations in Lebanon, Iran continues bombing targets.

I guess we will see if its still a term later on, but Lebanon being a party to the agreement tells me it must be.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Once we get the actual details of the real agreement, The DEFCON Warning System will be analysing it.
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Of course. I'm not asking you to analyze it here immediately, this is my analysis/2c based on the current reports as other members post theirs in these threads all the time. Edited to include the article I read as I realized the rhetorical Yes? reads like a question without it
 
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Winnitude said:
I edited my post to source where I read the related info. I am not sure what you mean, whether it would be a betrayal on Israel's part of they continued strikes and sabotaged the deal or if it would be a betrayal on the US part to push them into a deal that requires them to stop fighting in Lebanon, but Israeli strikes on lebanon have reactivated fighting in this conflict already once and it has been publicly one of Iran's demands that they end. So it raises the concern, if Israel isn't party to this agreement, then it may be empty. Israel continues their operations in Lebanon, Iran continues bombing targets.

I guess we will see if its still a term later on, but Lebanon being a party to the agreement tells me it must be.
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It's Hezbollah, acting on behalf of Iran, that's reactivated the fighting in Lebanon. Israel has been striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon in response to their strikes FROM Lebanon into civilian areas within Israel. Unless the Lebanese government actually reins in Hezbollah in then Israel will keep responding tit-for-tat on Lebanese soil.
 
Librarylady said:
It's Hezbollah, acting on behalf of Iran, that's reactivated the fighting in Lebanon. Israel has been striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon in response to their strikes FROM Lebanon into civilian areas within Israel. Unless the Lebanese government actually reins in Hezbollah in then Israel will keep responding tit-for-tat on Lebanese soil.
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Yeap! At least as far as this past week goes. It is implied the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is included in the memorandum. It’s reported that Iran funding of proxy conflicts is to end as well. This would include Iranian support of Hezbollah. Which obviously Hezbollah leadership will not be happy with just as some of the IRGC won’t want to see a normalization of relations between Iran and Israel

Here’s the problem, terrorist leadership is almost always committed to a continuation of violence. It’s they’re way of life after all. What is a long term terrorist leader to do if peace breaks out.

Hezbollah was formed in 1982 by Shia Clerics. As a point of comparison Hamas was formed in June 2007. So Hezbollah will be much harder to root out than Hamas was.

I don’t believe the Lebanon’s gov alone is able to suppress Hezbollah. And as it appears Israel is not going to quit striking Hezbollah targets in retaliation for Hezbollah missile attacks into northern Israel.

So this is going to be a stumbling block for an end to hostilities. Which is likely why Trump called out Netanyahu for the latest round of air strikes in Beirut.

So what can be inferred today is the active negotiations continue, there remains a lot of stumbling blocks. So we are just going to have to wait and see.
 
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