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Afghanistan

Milley says civil war 'likely' in Afghanistan:​

thehill.com

Milley says civil war ‘likely’ in Afghanistan

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said he believed it was “likely” that conditions for a future civil war could develop in Afghanistan following the U.S. …
thehill.com thehill.com

Do not agree with Miley. Taliban about to unveil their new president and government.

Squashed any chance of a real rebellion and already getting much recognition from world powers.

There is a reason why I labeled the thead "Islamic Emirate" of Afghanistan. It's pretty much over. The US built a country for the Taliban to claim and stick to legitimacy on the world stage.

May not of been intended but that is the end result. The Taliban in control of a nation legitimately with no one to really oppose them. One can only imagine what that will lead to. Most concerning is the resources the Taliban have in the land and how eager China & Russia are to make friends, it is not a coincidence.
 
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DarkNoon said:
Most concerning is the resources the Taliban have in the land and how eager China & Russia are to make friends, it is not a coincidence.
Click to expand...
Yes I know a lot of nations and the Afghans themselves have tried. But technology has changed & biggest factor politics have changed.

I am sure the Taliban wouldn't mind CCP to send their own slave labour work force to mine these minerals and build the infrastructure to distribute.

If the CCP has trouble with the locals they kill them all. Why not, the Taliban won't care once those rare minerals start coming out of the ground.

Bottom line you can bet your bottom dollar Taliban will and have to outsource the work to another nation to pull off such a feat. Likly a ioint venture of CCP & Russia investment. IF successful poses a big threat to the west.
 
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DarkNoon said:

Milley says civil war 'likely' in Afghanistan:​

thehill.com

Milley says civil war ‘likely’ in Afghanistan

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said he believed it was “likely” that conditions for a future civil war could develop in Afghanistan following the U.S. …
thehill.com thehill.com

Do not agree with Miley. Taliban about to unveil their new president and government.

Squashed any chance of a real rebellion and already getting much recognition from world powers.

There is a reason why I labeled the thead "Islamic Emirate" of Afghanistan. It's pretty much over. The US built a country for the Taliban to claim and stick to legitimacy on the world stage.

May not of been intended but that is the end result. The Taliban in control of a nation legitimately with no one to really oppose them. One can only imagine what that will lead to. Most concerning is the resources the Taliban have in the land and how eager China & Russia are to make friends, it is not a coincidence.
Click to expand...
Agreed, just a generic article that is saying about only America, leaving Afghanistan which would later act like a spherical horse in a vacuum. (a statement that is based on ignorance of the rest of the world around Afghanistan and U.S.)

To me, Taliban seems pretty solid, because of the agreements they have build even before establishing their government, which means their partners has trust and sense of stability in them: for now as the biggest figures we have China - economical powerhouse, also they will aid them in establishing governing model based on their own experiense; Turkey - self-proclaimed rising leader of the Islamic world; and Pakistan - a nuclear state that will become their pillar, and will reform their military and financial sectors. Today, they already sent the head of Pakistani intelligence services to start cooperation.
Russia will try to play a good face with them for a while, despite that the Taliban are heavily condemned by it's people and recognized by it's High Court as forbidden organisation to work with by any means, they will never become long-time friends with Taliban. Taliban (and most importantly, the people outside of Afghan that sympathize with them) sees Russia as a prey, victim, an enemy. So, the enormous amount of very dangerous equipment that US conveniently "abandoned" there has it's clear purpose.

We don't talk about thousands of small arms - you may give guns to a crowd but they will still remain a crowd. We are talking about something, that will make them dangerous, organised, highly mobile, responsive, capable fighting force - communications and control systems. On summary pics of left behind equipment they are followed by the picture of small portable walkie-talkie, but in reality these are mostly kits of "L3Falcon Harris" family which is currently, most likely, the best communication system in the world, that includes various kinds of devices - starting from portable radios (ex AN/PRC 152), finishing with dedicated MHQ vehicles (ex. based on M1117 ASV). Captured trophies nov gives the Taliban opportunities to transmit voice, video, georeferencing, laser-designation and fire-adjustment on targets and so on... Many countries (Croatia, Ukraine) are spending a lot of money on equipment like these, and even now they don't have that amount of comms goods that were gifted to Taliban. MoD of Russia Shoigu said that Taliban has become a better equipped force, than Ukraine is, and i incline to agree.
This list of goods shows, that this equipment, as well as weapons, NVG's and vehicles has been received not in chaotic numbers, but in adequate proportions to equip squads and platoons with communications, night vision devices, light vehicles to make them effective mobile attack-force. For now, Taliban faces two major problems - first is inability to properly use them, but they will overcome that in a year or two with Turkish and Pakistani guidance and support. Second, is that they lack any anti-air systems. Aside of that, they are ready to continue their crusade north - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, pressure on Kazakhstan and their end goal - Russia.
I think, that U.S. can stay calm and sleep soundly, as long as they stay far away from this place. The only real concern will appear, when all of this eventually will lead to downfall of Russia and acquisition of it's enormous nuclear arsenal into wrong hands.
. 1630874384429.png

After all, counter-terrorism campaign of U.S. has most likely ended. Some are stating it wasn't a failure, but in my opinion it definitely is, and by it i mean not the recent events, but the overall state of accomplishments of it's goals throughout it's duration, and for that we can take the example of events that took place 5-6 years ago.
First of all, remember how it started? Attacks of 9/11, U.S. intervention in Afghanistan to remove a terrorist state and take heads of Al-Qaeda, U.S. compiled a list of about 300 names to be eliminated - Al-Qaeda terrorists, and others associated with them. Then U.S. came in Iraq and it went so on. What happened way later afterwards, i find nothing but absurd: What once was a campaign to get rid of the terrorism and ~300 names of bad guys to kill, eventually rose into enormous, fully functioning radical Islamic State, that had to be taken down by intervention of the Russian Federation in Syria.
I may sound cynical, but questions of the U.S. citizens in shape of "what we were doing all this time" should have been raised a long time ago, i see that this war on terrorism has deemed a failure before today, when the world realised that it is.
As a result of the America struggle against terrorism we got a radical Islamic State, which, fortunately, was neutralized due to efforts of the world community.

And now we have this mess on our hands.
 
Resistance leader tells Taliban door open for talks:
The leader of the Afghan resistance group waging an intense battle against the Taliban in the Panjshir Valley has said he is open to enter peace talks.

Ahmad Massoud said he supported a plan, put forward by religious clerics, for a negotiated settlement, and called on the Taliban to end their offensive.

Earlier, reports suggested the Taliban had rapidly gained ground in Panjshir. The province, north of the capital Kabul, is the most prominent example of resistance to Taliban rule.
Click to expand...
www.bbc.com

Afghanistan: Resistance leader says open to peace talks with Taliban

The leader says he backs a plan to end the fighting in Panjshir Valley, an anti-Taliban stronghold.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
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Citizen-21 said:
Agreed, just a generic article that is saying about only America, leaving Afghanistan which would later act like a spherical horse in a vacuum. (a statement that is based on ignorance of the rest of the world around Afghanistan and U.S.)

To me, Taliban seems pretty solid, because of the agreements they have build even before establishing their government, which means their partners has trust and sense of stability in them: for now as the biggest figures we have China - economical powerhouse, also they will aid them in establishing governing model based on their own experiense; Turkey - self-proclaimed rising leader of the Islamic world; and Pakistan - a nuclear state that will become their pillar, and will reform their military and financial sectors. Today, they already sent the head of Pakistani intelligence services to start cooperation.
Russia will try to play a good face with them for a while, despite that the Taliban are heavily condemned by it's people and recognized by it's High Court as forbidden organisation to work with by any means, they will never become long-time friends with Taliban. Taliban (and most importantly, the people outside of Afghan that sympathize with them) sees Russia as a prey, victim, an enemy. So, the enormous amount of very dangerous equipment that US conveniently "abandoned" there has it's clear purpose.

We don't talk about thousands of small arms - you may give guns to a crowd but they will still remain a crowd. We are talking about something, that will make them dangerous, organised, highly mobile, responsive, capable fighting force - communications and control systems. On summary pics of left behind equipment they are followed by the picture of small portable walkie-talkie, but in reality these are mostly kits of "L3Falcon Harris" family which is currently, most likely, the best communication system in the world, that includes various kinds of devices - starting from portable radios (ex AN/PRC 152), finishing with dedicated MHQ vehicles (ex. based on M1117 ASV). Captured trophies nov gives the Taliban opportunities to transmit voice, video, georeferencing, laser-designation and fire-adjustment on targets and so on... Many countries (Croatia, Ukraine) are spending a lot of money on equipment like these, and even now they don't have that amount of comms goods that were gifted to Taliban. MoD of Russia Shoigu said that Taliban has become a better equipped force, than Ukraine is, and i incline to agree.
This list of goods shows, that this equipment, as well as weapons, NVG's and vehicles has been received not in chaotic numbers, but in adequate proportions to equip squads and platoons with communications, night vision devices, light vehicles to make them effective mobile attack-force. For now, Taliban faces two major problems - first is inability to properly use them, but they will overcome that in a year or two with Turkish and Pakistani guidance and support. Second, is that they lack any anti-air systems. Aside of that, they are ready to continue their crusade north - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, pressure on Kazakhstan and their end goal - Russia.
I think, that U.S. can stay calm and sleep soundly, as long as they stay far away from this place. The only real concern will appear, when all of this eventually will lead to downfall of Russia and acquisition of it's enormous nuclear arsenal into wrong hands.
. View attachment 1241

After all, counter-terrorism campaign of U.S. has most likely ended. Some are stating it wasn't a failure, but in my opinion it definitely is, and by it i mean not the recent events, but the overall state of accomplishments of it's goals throughout it's duration, and for that we can take the example of events that took place 5-6 years ago.
First of all, remember how it started? Attacks of 9/11, U.S. intervention in Afghanistan to remove a terrorist state and take heads of Al-Qaeda, U.S. compiled a list of about 300 names to be eliminated - Al-Qaeda terrorists, and others associated with them. Then U.S. came in Iraq and it went so on. What happened way later afterwards, i find nothing but absurd: What once was a campaign to get rid of the terrorism and ~300 names of bad guys to kill, eventually rose into enormous, fully functioning radical Islamic State, that had to be taken down by intervention of the Russian Federation in Syria.
I may sound cynical, but questions of the U.S. citizens in shape of "what we were doing all this time" should have been raised a long time ago, i see that this war on terrorism has deemed a failure before today, when the world realised that it is.
As a result of the America struggle against terrorism we got a radical Islamic State, which, fortunately, was neutralized due to efforts of the world community.

And now we have this mess on our hands.
Click to expand...
The lesson to be learned from the last twenty years is this.
no more boots on the ground or nation building. Treat major terrorist attacks like what they are.
Want to choke the Taliban out. Irradiate the mountain passes leading to Pakistan. Yes I’m being flippant and no nuking SE Afghanistan isn’t a solution. But there must be a better way forward.
I know maybe we hold the state sponsors of terrorist accountable but make no pretense of nation building or democratization afterwards. If their bombed into the 19th century then leave them in the 19th century.
we should have been buying Afghan opium on a massive scale and carpet bombing Chinese Iranian and Pakistan cities with free opium for the last twenty years.
In the 17th century it was considered immoral to fight a battle in any way other than lining up brightly colored soldiers and taking turns shooting at each other.
The church tried to stigmatize the cross bow because it was so effective at impaling shinny knights on horses.
America needs to decide if they want to be an empire builder or simply a nation never to be messed with.
Creating emerging markets and democracies is not in our constitution.
 
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UN will maintain aid to Afghanistan, Taliban says after meeting:
A Taliban spokesperson on Sunday said the U.N. promised continued aid to the Afghan people during a meeting held in Kabul, Reuters reported.

Senior Taliban officials including Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the head of the organization's political office, met with the U.N.'s Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths on Sunday.

"The UN delegation promised continuation of humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people, saying he would call for further assistance to Afghanistan during the coming meeting of donor countries," Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen tweeted.
Click to expand...
thehill.com

UN will maintain aid to Afghanistan, Taliban says after meeting

A Taliban spokesperson on Sunday said the U.N. promised continued aid to the Afghan people during a meeting held in Kabul, Reuters reported.Senior Taliban officials including Mullah Abdul…
thehill.com thehill.com
 
Feels simple if you're China and Russia. Nothing Afghanistan does can make them an actual military threat to you, but chaos in Afghanistan offers limitless possibilities for all sorts of minor irritants to entrench themselves. If the Taliban can impose order, long live the Taliban.
 
'We sleep hungry': Taliban victory brings economy to brink of collapse:
www.trtworld.com

'We sleep hungry': Taliban victory brings economy to brink of collapse

With a sinking currency and rising inflation, economic hardship is emerging as the biggest challenge to the Taliban's rule.
www.trtworld.com www.trtworld.com

Afghanistan’s looming economic catastrophe:​

www.afghanistan-analysts.org

Afghanistan's looming economic catastrophe: What next for the Taleban and the donors?

When the Taleban captured Kabul, it ruptured Afghanistan’s relationship with the international community. The problems now facing its aid-dependent economy and new Taleban rulers are rapidly piling up. Adding to the damage already wrought by conflict, pandemic and drought, foreign aid is now...
www.afghanistan-analysts.org www.afghanistan-analysts.org

Western powers abandon Afghan economy to fate:

Archyworldys - archyworldys.com

archyworldys.com
www.archyworldys.com

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan facing a looming economic banking & food collapse crisis. Economic aid for I.E.A is and will be indefinitely locked out to the Taliban except for some UN funding which is only 1% of the cash flow I.E.A needs to survive.

Estimates I have read the world has cut off more than 20++ billion in cash reserves. 9 billion alone is being withheld by America. I.E.A cannot survive without international aid funding for development & sustainability.

[ I.E.A = Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan ]
 
Taliban announce new caretaker government:
The new interim government is made up of hardliners, led by a militant wanted by the US.
www.cnn.com

Taliban name ex-Guantanamo detainees and wanted man to new caretaker government | CNN

The Taliban on Tuesday announced the formation of a hardline interim government for Afghanistan, filling top posts with veterans of the militant group who oversaw the 20-year fight against the US-led military coalition.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 
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White House asked if it will recognize new Taliban government in Afghanistan:
The White House on Tuesday said there is "no rush" to recognize the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan, saying that recognition from the U.S. will be "dependent" on their actions, as the group announced the formation of its new government.



Taliban unveil interim government after claiming Panjshir:
The Taliban said the declaration of the interim government is not final, saying all the appointments are in an acting capacity.

 
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