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April-May/2025 | India-Pakistan -Kashmir | Terror Attack Fallout | Discussions

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Operational Theater Update For Those Just Joining Us:

Status: Escalation / Imminent Military Activity

Key Indicators:
  • India has placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance a near certain casus belli from Pakistan’s strategic perspective.
  • Formal suspensions of diplomatic and trade ties have been declared. Border crossings like Wagah are sealed. Indian diplomatic staff is being expelled.
  • ❗️Indian armed forces have cancelled leave and mobilized across multiple sectors. High level reviews and war councils are ongoing at LOC adjacent commands.
  • ❗️Multiple skirmishes along the LoC occurred within a short time frame at multiple points not routine and a sign of either probing or misfire under pressure.
  • Indian leadership, particularly Modi, has taken on Churchillian/FDR wartime tones in speech, signaling non-reversible posture.
  • Civilian sentiment within India is strongly pro war, potentially insulating the government from anti war political pressure.
  • ❗️Pakistani leadership is increasingly hawkish and showing signs of parity posturing, including warnings of full force response.
  • ❗️No international mediation is underway, as confirmed by Pakistan's Foreign Minister major anomaly.
  • ❗️Pakistani leadership family is leaving the country.
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Assessment of Strategic Posture (Global):
  • United States: Stretched thin, still reactionary, prioritizing Iran but showing minimal appetite for Indo-Pak mediation under Trump.
  • China: Silent possibly opportunistic. Watching both fronts.
  • Russia: No significant movement, very likely distracted by Ukraine and internal strain.

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Threat Outlook & Triage:
  • ❗️Military retaliation by India is inevitable; the only variable is scale.
  • ❗️Kinetic phase will likely begin with surgical air or missile strikes.
  • ❗️Escalation chain is fragile border skirmishes could rapidly spiral if nationalistic fervor is high and both sides are dug in politically.
  • Nuclear risk: Moderate but rising. Still dependent on depth and tempo of India's retaliation and Pakistan's doctrinal response under perceived existential threat.
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Conclusion:
This is now an overlapping multi theater (Iran/Indo-Pak) pre war environment with low mediation and high public tolerance for escalation. Indo-Pak situation is already in motion. Iran front may ignite still.
 
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DarkNoon said:
⚠️WARNING SIGN⚠️
Families of Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir, DG ISPR Lt Gen Asim Malik and CJCSC General Sahir Shamshad Mirza have left Pakistan and moved to UK and New Jersey.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1915895688942260457
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This is particularly worrying. It is Pakistan's Army General that effectively has the decision-making power, not the prime minister. Top Pakistani military leadership sending their families abroad is very ominous.
 
7gtz said:
This is particularly worrying. It is Pakistan's Army General that effectively has the decision-making power, not the prime minister. Top Pakistani military leadership sending their families abroad is very ominous.
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Very much keeping an eye out if any other important figures' relatives leave.

Hopefully I catch it or someone does. The information sphere is getting flooded with a lot of noise. It's becoming harder and harder to cut through the mess; fake news, hate speech against both sides, and honestly, some of the most ridiculous conspiracies I've heard yet.
 
DarkNoon said:
Very much keeping an eye out if any other important figures' relatives leave.

Hopefully I catch it or someone does. The information sphere is getting flooded with a lot of noise. It's becoming harder and harder to cut through the mess; fake news, hate speech against both sides, and honestly, some of the most ridiculous conspiracies I've heard yet.
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The hatred ingrained in both sides against each other is flowing freely ;)
 
DarkNoon said:
🔥
Slogans of 'Jai Shri Ram' and 'Down with Pakistan' were raised on the steps of Jaipur's Jama Masjid!

BJP MLA Balmukund Acharya had arrived with a crowd, the mosque committee released a video.
Video:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1916087777218773468

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Video:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1916093611784970711

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Navnirman Hindu Rakshak Foundation burnt an effigy of terrorism in protest against the terrorist attack on Hindu tourists in #Pahalgam and handed over a memorandum to the honorable Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to the Sub-District Magistrate, Nizamabad.
Video:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1916084060226470008
Indias population appears foaming at mouth to attack Pakistan...
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Aligns with what I have been seeing and picking up too. People want war.
 
This is in itself a very powerful argument as to why Iran should never get nuclear weapons. Pakistan harbours terrorists and uses their nuclear arsenal to deter any action against them, effectively giving the terrorists a nuclear umbrella. Iran would, without a doubt, be very similar.

In both cases, terror-enabling regimes condemn their populations and the country's land to war to cling to power.
 
DarkNoon said:
Pakistan is considering legal and international escalation after India announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, and is forming an expert team to explore diplomatic steps while reaffirming its water rights under the 1960 treaty.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1916113310723805336
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Diplomacy is dead.

Staff Edit: Let's please keep personal opinions regarding who is responsible for the current tensions out of analysis threads. Neither India nor Pakistan can claim 100% innocence in how they have dealt with each other. DWS does not take sides.
 
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DarkNoon said:
This advisory is also applicable on social media.

Wherever part of India you live, if there is army movement around you or army troops are seen coming and going somewhere, then give your mobile some rest.

Use only the photo videos released from the official account of the army.

It should not happen that in the pursuit of TRP and making reels, you end up harming the country.
View attachment 7146

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Out of respect to India and their fight against the terrorist filth, I will no longer be posting first-hand local videos of army assets on the move. I am sure terrorists "dressed up" in uniform, much like Iran, would find that information highly valuable since Pakistan does not have real-time intelligence like most of the developed world.

I cannot make anyone do anything. But I ask as a favor everyone refrain from posting such hyperspecific information regarding hyperspecific location of Indian assets.
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You are losing any objectivity if you ask the members to censor Indian movements but not Pakistan. We have not picked sides officially.

Unofficially Pakistan and India has been back and forth forth for years. There was no reason for India to aggregate or hold in abeyance its water treaties with Pakistan other than to issue a threat which if realized will surely lead to a major war.

This existential threat wasn’t even issued with a threat to turn over the living bodies of the terrorist supporters or some such demands.

Pakistan deserves a comeuppance in the form sof punitive strikes, but India clearly wants, or is willing to risk, a war.

A war with a nuclear power over 26 people seems absurd. Proportionality is a thing.

Now IMO: Good luck India! Get those bastards.

My2¢ YMMV
 
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Torch said:
You are losing any objectivity if you ask the members to censor Indian movements but not Pakistan. We have not picked sides officially.

Unofficially Pakistan and India has been back and forth forth for years. There was no reason for India to aggregate or hold it a bands its water treaties with Pakistan other than to issue a threat which if realized will surely lead to a major war.

This existential threat wasn’t even issued with a threat to turn over the living bodies of the terrorist supporters or some such demands.

Pakistan deserves a comeuppance in the for of punitive strikes, but India clearly wants, or is willing to risk, a war.

A war with a nuclear power over 26 people seems absurd. Proportionality is a thing.

Now IMO: Good luck India! Get those bastards.

My2¢ YMMV
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There was a request to not post about US military movement too, with respect to Iran. No hyperspecific Ukrainian military positions are posted here either.

Your post would have held true if this was a standalone scenario. The problem is, a proportionate response is of no gain. Wait another few years, and there will be another terror attack. The Pakistani military & intelligence apparatus that harbours terrorism is completely unaffected by the destruction of a few terror camps along the border, or by any action short of war. Also, this attack targeted civilians, not military personnel like other recent attacks.

The goal here is to ensure this never happens again. A long-term solution, not a short-term one, until the next attack. There is no threshold number of people to be killed by a terror attack to justify military action.

When faced with a nuclear power, giving in will only embolden them.
 
Gargolu said:
and what four wars was that? cause your being vague on details again.
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Not going into details on basic history is not "being vague." I'm going to recommend you spend a little time bringing yourself up to speed on the history of India and Pakistan from 1945 onward.
 
7gtz said:
There was a request to not post about US military movement too, with respect to Iran. No hyperspecific Ukrainian military positions are posted here either.

Your post would have held true if this was a standalone scenario. The problem is, a proportionate response is of no gain. Wait another few years, and there will be another terror attack. The Pakistani military & intelligence apparatus that harbours terrorism is completely unaffected by the destruction of a few terror camps along the border, or by any action short of war. Also, this attack targeted civilians, not military personnel like other recent attacks.

The goal here is to ensure this never happens again. A long-term solution, not a short-term one, until the next attack. There is no threshold number of people to be killed by a terror attack to justify military action.

When faced with a nuclear power, giving in will only embolden them.
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DWS has an obligation to not post US military movements due to a request by the US government. Other than that, if it's publicly available information, it's free game to post and discuss.

We will delete any post containing classified or non-public information.
 
RiffRaff said:
DWS has an obligation to not post US military movements due to a request by the US government. Other than that, if it's publicly available information, it's free game to post and discuss.

We will delete any post containing classified or non-public information.
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Understood I wasn't aware of that. Thank you for clarifying
 
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