YingYang is correct there are several war game reports from the pentagon that show China would win. Chinas coastal based missile batteries are the critical component for the US navy’s stand off distance.
Any US carrier within five hundred miles of Chinas coast is definitely at risk.
Here is one that highlights this. I don’t agree with it completely.
As tensions rise in the Pacific, the U.S. military is intensifying war games to counter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Could America and its allies stop a surprise attack?
www.19fortyfive.com
Here is the thing about missile attacks on carrier strike groups. No one truly know how successful they would be. It’s never been attempted before. The carrier anti missile screen has never been tested before in a massed attack. Simulators and professional assessments are all over the board. Regarding how successful a US carrier strike group could be protected from a massed missile battery strike from Chinese assets in a war.
China would suffer hugh losses trying to occupy Taiwan. The US and allies (if any would suffer such high losses in a sea and air battle to defend Taiwan) in a protracted effort by China to seize Taiwan. Chinas manpower means little unless they can safely land them on Taiwan and then keep them supplied. Chinas is building a new class of amphibious floating piers ships. But only five are planned I believe. Troop transport ships will have big targets on them like US carriers.
Then you have all the international public outrage and angst when cost of the conflict starts getting reported.
Loss of a US aircraft carrier and up to 5000 casualties - 10 or 15000 dead Chinese solders when troop ships start sinking.
No one can really predict how the total war senario plays out.
I’ve said capability wise the US has the military ability to block it. Will the public support those kinds of losses. There all just hypothetical numbers at this point. That’s a 50/50 bet at best.
One can be outraged that we wouldn’t but that not real life.
The best way is to fight this war is to prevent it from starting. With that the US Japan Australia and ROK must demonstrate enough capacity and will to make it extremely costly.
Wanna do it in one fail swoop? Covertly aid Taiwan with a nuclear deterrent.
It’s the bloodiest nose that can be delivered to China to deter them ever trying to start with.
Wail and moan about proliferation. There are already enough bombs and lunatics with them to create a bad day for everyone. So let all the bullies on the block know that your once weak neighbors have a significant deterrent.
Regrettably proliferation is going to happen anyway. So equip your friends as our adversaries have done with the two crazy guys at either end of the block (iran and n Korea)
In the end as some have mentioned a nuclear exchange is going to happen in the end irregardless.