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DEFCON 3 | Europe Crisis | Feburary 2022

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What this means is that the submarines haven't all been scrambled to sea yet, which would be a sign of an imminent nuclear strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498293467746816000

What the seems to indicate is that Putins order to increase strategic readiness hasn't resulted in a large shift in the Russians strategic force posture. That's somewhat relieving, it's also relieving that other nations don't seem to be following suit.
 
Splinters said:
What this means is that the submarines haven't all been scrambled to sea yet, which would be a sign of an imminent nuclear strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498293467746816000
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At the moment what we’re looking at is Russia playing it’s hand to get the very best from this situation as humanly possible , they don’t intend to use nuclear warfare because of MAD (Mutually assured destruction). He has stated many and many time that he only cares about Russian people and he knows that using nukes spells the end of Russian people
 
Splinters said:
What this means is that the submarines haven't all been scrambled to sea yet, which would be a sign of an imminent nuclear strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498293467746816000

What the seems to indicate is that Putins order to increase strategic readiness hasn't resulted in a large shift in the Russians strategic force posture. That's somewhat relieving, it's also relieving that other nations don't seem to be following suit.
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They can launch from right where they are in port against Europe, the ones that sailed are meant for us!
 
rudemarine said:
They can launch from right where they are in port against Europe, the ones that sailed are meant for us!
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Well, they could but then there just sitting ducks They would 100% wanna hide if this was going to happen and also the closer they get the better chance of a successful strike
 
Personally I think (and hope) that Putin is scrambling to get whatever he can out of this. Him ordering a heightened readiness of his nuclear forces is obviously a sign that things aren't going well for him. It may very well be that he is attempting to increase his negotiating power by making implicit threats.
 
RiffRaff said:
Which is what I was looking for, and I concur.
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Im not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, because the common sense side of me agrees with you, but could they be rounding up anyone possible who can do even as little as dress a wound in order to whisk them away to an undisclosed shelter so they ARE available to be dispersed after a nuke exchange? Im not looking for one, but I mean - over the last 6 months we've had:

1) Russian Govt requiring regions to update their mass-casualty plans "by Feb 1 2022"
2) Boomers leaving the barn in "emergency deployment" end of Nov
3) Russia basically conscripting any doctor or nurse that they can nationwide
4) Strategic nuke forces placed on alert.
5) Slowly but surely dumping dollars over the last couple years, also other foreign currency and preparing to eventually be detached financially.

Add to this reports of China spending the last couple of years buying up lots of food and gold, and it looks pretty dire.

To me this adds up to one of two things. They are either 1) preparing for a first strike against the US Military or even the mainland or 2) letting us know that they are prepared to go all in if the US/NATO/EU gets directly involved.

Im not trying to drum up fear porn. In fact, fear porn gives me agita. At this point all we can do it prepare as best we can in our situations, and pray. Oh - and also hope we have some super secret weapons that can stop Sarmat missiles.
 
JxshuaL said:
At the moment what we’re looking at is Russia playing it’s hand to get the very best from this situation as humanly possible , they don’t intend to use nuclear warfare because of MAD (Mutually assured destruction). He has stated many and many time that he only cares about Russian people and he knows that using nukes spells the end of Russian people
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He doesn't care about the Russian people or we wouldnt be in the situation we're in now. Don't forget, the Russian apartment building bombings that killed 350 Russians that was used as a pretext to invade Chechnya; many people believe it was a false flag ordered by Putin. Furthermore, don't forget when terrorists hit a Russian theater. Putin just end up killing all the terrorists plus the majority of hostages. He doesn't care about Russians. He cares about making the oligarchs happy first and foremost.

But I agree with you, this is mostly being used as a strategy to scare Europe. Even if he doesn't care to die, I would imagine he would not want to risk his children and grandchildren. Even if they made it underground, who wants to spend the rest of their life in a bunker never seeing the sun again?

Edit : I should also mention putting the Russian soldiers in this situation is another sign. I keep reading that the majority of this first wave that have taken a lot of causalities.; were mainly 18 and 19 year old kids from the Cental Asian part of Russia. Most we're told they were just going on duty on the border and we're not told about the invasion until it was happening. They're super green and most of them are conscripts. It's really sad.
 
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MikeG said:
Im not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, because the common sense side of me agrees with you, but could they be rounding up anyone possible who can do even as little as dress a wound in order to whisk them away to an undisclosed shelter so they ARE available to be dispersed after a nuke exchange? Im not looking for one, but I mean - over the last 6 months we've had:

1) Russian Govt requiring regions to update their mass-casualty plans "by Feb 1 2022"
2) Boomers leaving the barn in "emergency deployment" end of Nov
3) Russia basically conscripting any doctor or nurse that they can nationwide
4) Strategic nuke forces placed on alert.
5) Slowly but surely dumping dollars over the last couple years, also other foreign currency and preparing to eventually be detached financially.

Add to this reports of China spending the last couple of years buying up lots of food and gold, and it looks pretty dire.

To me this adds up to one of two things. They are either 1) preparing for a first strike against the US Military or even the mainland or 2) letting us know that they are prepared to go all in if the US/NATO/EU gets directly involved.

Im not trying to drum up fear porn. In fact, fear porn gives me agita. At this point all we can do it prepare as best we can in our situations, and pray. Oh - and also hope we have some super secret weapons that can stop Sarmat missiles.
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I understand the thoughts, but consider this. Russia cannot afford a sustained war. Even if Putin gets peace today, he's done. Russia is done for a decade at least. The financial hit they just took is unrecoverable for the foreseeable future. Soldiers need food and pay to stay out on the front lines. Unless they go the Soviet Union way of having the officers shoot fleeing Russians, the military will not fight forever being unpaid. Especially in a war that most of them feel is unjust anyways....if we're to believe the hearsay coming from the front lines. Or unless the Putin moves some of his 200 billion to the war front, or convinces the oligarchy to move some money over; it's not happening.
 
NamelessOne said:
He doesn't care about the Russian people or we wouldnt be in the situation we're in now. Don't forget, the Russian apartment building bombings that killed 350 Russians that was used as a pretext to invade Chechnya; many people believe it was a false flag ordered by Putin. Furthermore, don't forget when terrorists hit a Russian theater. Putin just end up killing all the terrorists plus the majority of hostages. He doesn't care about Russians. He cares about making the oligarchs happy first and foremost.

But I agree with you, this is mostly being used as a strategy to scare Europe. Even if he doesn't care to die, I would imagine he would not want to risk his children and grandchildren. Even if they made it underground, who wants to spend the rest of their life in a bunker never seeing the sun again?
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Well, you said it. Would oligarchs really want to see the world end? Can’t imagine nuclear warfare is veery good for business.

Right now to me the biggest issue is not only miscalculation or communication, but the West refusing to step back. Then again that’s only publicly, fuck knows if there’s some conversation happening behind the scenes.

Has the US matched Putin’s moves that we know of?
 
Train said:
Well, you said it. Would oligarchs really want to see the world end? Can’t imagine nuclear warfare is veery good for business.

Right now to me the biggest issue is not only miscalculation or communication, but the West refusing to step back. Then again that’s only publicly, fuck knows if there’s some conversation happening behind the scenes.

Has the US matched Putin’s moves that we know of?
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One thing that has surprised me in the recent days is it's mainly Europe responding back. I read the other day that basically the house and senate both wanna step back and quit supplying Ukraine with weapons. It seemed Biden too felt that they couldn't get involved anymore. But now Europe is really ramping up (surprisingly) and we finally stepped up and sent Stingers. I would imagine that will be as much as the US is willing to do outside of intelligence. I think the overall strategy for the US is just to bleed Russia dry. they may even take Ukraine, but at this point it's gonna be a Pyrrhic victory.

So yah I think US/NATO have really outmatched Putin to be honest. Not that I'm saying our moves are genius, a lot of it has just been Putin's own stupidity. He can't get out of his own way.
 
JxshuaL said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1498323015297568768
Noise
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Good.

I hope it’s true. Either way, today’s scared me enough to get off my ass and actually buy some supplies. I might not be in the best position physically (I mean, shit, bottom floor of an apartment building…) but I may as well try.

And if, god willing, I don’t need it, just means I don’t have to go shopping for a while 😄
 
Train said:
Has the US matched Putin’s moves that we know of?
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Other than the B-52s ANGER11 and ANGER12, and some USAF flight to Nebraska there hasn't been much movement recorded by the people tracking these events.

Seems the consensus is that this is bluster on Putin's part; that the west should be alert but not overly concerned.
 
I think the biggest threat now is if aircraft carrying weapons etc to Ukraine get shot down. Or a cyber attack that takes out significant critical infrastructure, which, we are seeing the start of. Nvidia is shit down from what I read.
 
MikeG said:
To me this adds up to one of two things. They are either 1) preparing for a first strike against the US Military or even the mainland or 2) letting us know that they are prepared to go all in if the US/NATO/EU gets directly involved.
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I think this is sound analysis and would lean heavily toward the second option.
SamHoarderBridges said:
God i hope
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Hang in there man. This is all pretty wild and crazy but crazy stuff has happened before. Stay frosty but don't give in to anxiety. Pick something concrete you can do to improve your situation if something goes really badly or if nothing goes really badly. It's probably going to be OK, but if it isn't OK, you'll have it a little better than you would have had it yesterday.
 
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