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DEFCON 3 | Europe Crisis | Feburary 2022

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REALHumanRights said:
NYTimes visual investigations journalist Christoph Koettl @ckoettl is reporting: "Russian convoy heading towards #Kyiv is now stretched out over at least 17 miles, w breaks in between. 2-3 rows deep in some areas. 20miles north of Antonov Airport. Unclear if it will head straight for the city or join forces w other troops first. @maxar
https://nytimes.com/live/2022/02/28...kyiv-now-stretched-out-over-at-least-17-miles"
https://twitter.com/x/status/1498353408855715840
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Why is that convoy not being attacked?
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Why is that convoy not being attacked?
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A forest fire would be more effective at slowing the convoy. But 17 miles of tanks and apc's, troops doesn't seem like something that would be easy to make an assault on. On the other hand this is a logistical nightmare and a slow rolling traffic jam. I can imagine how many of those vehicles are having mechanical issues right now. Seems like Russia has made a lot of strategic blunders.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Why is that convoy not being attacked?
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I would think that Ukrainian forces are already engaged in urban areas allowing this convoy to build up. maybe A final assault force? But it just looks to be trucks. Not a whole lot of armor.
 
Kyiv Independent is reporting Ukraine submitting application for expedited entrance as nation within the European Union "the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that 'Ukraine is “one of us and we want them in.'"

Kyiv Independent is also reporting on Telegram: "NATO rules out 'no-fly zone' over Ukraine. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO had no intention of entering Ukraine by land or air to stop Russia." " 'NATO’s responsibility is to ensure that the conflict does not “spiral out of control, escalate or turn into a full-scale war in Europe with NATO allies,' Stoltenberg said."
 
REALHumanRights said:
Kyiv Independent is reporting Ukraine submitting application for expedited entrance as nation within the European Union "the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said that 'Ukraine is “one of us and we want them in.'"

Kyiv Independent is also reporting on Telegram: "NATO rules out 'no-fly zone' over Ukraine. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO had no intention of entering Ukraine by land or air to stop Russia." " 'NATO’s responsibility is to ensure that the conflict does not “spiral out of control, escalate or turn into a full-scale war in Europe with NATO allies,' Stoltenberg said."
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While some will inevitably call this weakness. I'm very glad that NATO and Biden are keeping an eye on the escalation and working to ensure it doesn't escalate further.
 
One thread worth following in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: I don't know what Russia will ultimately demand, but it seems the bare minimum they would take is going to be a firm commitment from Ukraine not to pursue NATO membership or affiliation and a rollback of the sanctions imposed since the beginning of this situation. Ukraine can commit to the former by treaty or assurance or whatever mechanism the sides agree upon, but the latter will require the assent of numerous other parties, most notably the US and EU. If they can't get that, Putin either has to win or go out on his shield, which means Ukraine cannot possibly win this war. But if they do get that, then all of a sudden all the pundits talking about what a disaster this was for Russia are left in an awkward position. Putin has no ongoing consequences and Mr. Lavrov will be making the rounds explaining that all Russia ever asked for was for Ukraine not to join up with an enemy alliance, and they wouldn't do it, and isn't it a shame that all these people had to die so that we end up with what we asked for peacefully earlier this year, and of course what we asked for is nothing more than the fulfillment of the assurances NATO made right after the Soviet Union collapsed. And that story will be about 60% true, and Russia will be in the position of having achieved by force what it could not by negotiation, having lost nothing but a few weeks of economic chaos and a relatively insignificant bruising for their military.

And Ukraine knows all of this, so if they can get their bottom line met, they will be asking a lot of hard questions of their not quite allies, probably friends in the West.
 
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