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DEFCON 5 Level Change Discussion

I’m pretty confused here. Are we at DEFCON 5 or 4? The heading for today’s update says
“Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 22nd June 2026:
Condition Blue – DEFCON 4” however the website’s banner and theme is green…..
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
I’m pretty confused here. Are we at DEFCON 5 or 4? The heading for today’s update says
“Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 22nd June 2026:
Condition Blue – DEFCON 4” however the website’s banner and theme is green…..
Click to expand...
Clear your internet browser. Particularly your cache. You will have to sign back in afterwards.
 
DrMantisToboggan said:
I’m pretty confused here. Are we at DEFCON 5 or 4? The heading for today’s update says
“Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 22nd June 2026:
Condition Blue – DEFCON 4” however the website’s banner and theme is green…..
Click to expand...
That is for the 22nd. Today is the 24th.
 
As I said before. Trump is likely willing to sell his own sons to slavery if it means getting this deal through with terrorists.

Only thing that can stop this peace deal is if Israel directly attacks Iran unprovoked to drag US back into conflict because Iran will see a Israel attack no different than US attacking even if it was done outside US approval.

So. The terrorists won folks. End of story. Will see some Western city in the next decade or so go up in radioactive smoke OR a terror state commiting terror acts across the globe unabated, unimpeded, unchecked. AKA Nuclear Blackmail. Hope Americans both left and right are satisfied with their selfish selves.

Hope one day before it's to late Americans realize they can't have their cake and eat it too!
 
DarkNoon said:
As I said before. Trump is likely willing to sell his own sons to slavery if it means getting this deal through with terrorists.

Only thing that can stop this peace deal is if Israel directly attacks Iran unprovoked to drag US back into conflict because Iran will see a Israel attack no different than US attacking even if it was done outside US approval.

So. The terrorists won folks. End of story. Will see some Western city in the next decade or so go up in radioactive smoke OR a terror state commiting terror acts across the globe unabated, unimpeded, unchecked. AKA Nuclear Blackmail. Hope Americans both left and right are satisfied with their selfish selves.

Hope one day before it's to late Americans realize they can't have their cake and eat it too!
Click to expand...
Listen Closely... I am actually getting a clout of clarity without vulgar......

I agree with the return to DEFCON 5 because the alert level represents the immediate risk of nuclear war. It is not intended to represent every medium or long term strategic danger that may result from the current situation.

The immediate risk has declined dramatically. Nobody presently appears to have the political appetite to continue the war. Not Iran, not the United States, not Israel indefinitely, and not even much of the Republican base.

A final peace agreement may never be reached, but that does not necessarily mean the fighting will resume. This may end more like the Korean War... No formal peace treaty, no true resolution, but neither side possessing the will to restart a full scale war.

That is why DEFCON 5 is appropriate under the current conditions IMHO.

👉My concern is what happens years from now. The political desire to end the conflict may produce an agreement or merely an indefinite cessation of hostilities THAT leaves the underlying nuclear and terrorism problems unresolved. 👉The immediate danger can decrease while the long term danger increases. Those are not mutually exclusive conclusions.

When I said the terrorists won, that is what I meant. They survived, the political appetite to finish the conflict has evaporated, and the West will likely declare the absence of active fighting a success while the underlying threat continues developing out of sight.

Trump appears willing to accept almost anything that allows him to announce the war is over. As I said before, he would sell his own sons into slavery if he believed it would secure a peace deal and a triumphant press conference. Even without a formal agreement, however, renewed war currently appears unlikely because the political will simply is not there.

DEFCON 5 reflects the immediate risk. My previous comments concerned the longer term consequences of how this conflict is ending.
 
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DarkNoon said:
As I said before. Trump is likely willing to sell his own sons to slavery if it means getting this deal through with terrorists.

Only thing that can stop this peace deal is if Israel directly attacks Iran unprovoked to drag US back into conflict because Iran will see a Israel attack no different than US attacking even if it was done outside US approval.

So. The terrorists won folks. End of story. Will see some Western city in the next decade or so go up in radioactive smoke OR a terror state commiting terror acts across the globe unabated, unimpeded, unchecked. AKA Nuclear Blackmail. Hope Americans both left and right are satisfied with their selfish selves.

Hope one day before it's to late Americans realize they can't have their cake and eat it too!
Click to expand...
Why is it always so much easier to pin blame on the American people when this could have easily been solved by, I don't know, not negotiating with terrorists as you said. So how exactly is that the US citizens fault? Trump has made clear with his approach to the E files that he doesn't care about his legacy, or how people perceive him. He knows that people aren't going to magically change their minds about him or decide to vote blue or red IF he had actually pursued the wargoals much more aggressively and with adequate assets. Instead we had US soldiers hiding under hastily prepared IDF shelters on bases that should had been decommed years ago, while the Iranians flung missiles and cheap drones at vital targets that we had left exposed. Trump's approval rating was poor before we went into this. Not to mention that when you run on an anti war ticket and then suddenly start 360'ing like you are Dick Cheney after the bush admin after being elected, your supporters aren't going to be cool with that. So if we really want to pin blame on anyone, why not the Trump team for not making a compelling argument for going into Iran PRE election? This is a product of their own malfeasance and inept policy making. Not the average joe not able to afford his 2 hour drive to his healthcare specialist because Gas has skyrocketed.
 
Peter Griffin said:
Why is it always so much easier to pin blame on the American people when this could have easily been solved by, I don't know, not negotiating with terrorists as you said. So how exactly is that the US citizens fault? Trump has made clear with his approach to the E files that he doesn't care about his legacy, or how people perceive him. He knows that people aren't going to magically change their minds about him or decide to vote blue or red IF he had actually pursued the wargoals much more aggressively and with adequate assets. Instead we had US soldiers hiding under hastily prepared IDF shelters on bases that should had been decommed years ago, while the Iranians flung missiles and cheap drones at vital targets that we had left exposed. Trump's approval rating was poor before we went into this. Not to mention that when you run on an anti war ticket and then suddenly start 360'ing like you are Dick Cheney after the bush admin after being elected, your supporters aren't going to be cool with that. So if we really want to pin blame on anyone, why not the Trump team for not making a compelling argument for going into Iran PRE election? This is a product of their own malfeasance and inept policy making. Not the average joe not able to afford his 2 hour drive to his healthcare specialist because Gas has skyrocketed.
Click to expand...

I clarified my position before you saw it and responded to my initial emotionally loaded response 👇

DarkNoon said:
Listen Closely... I am actually getting a clout of clarity without vulgar......

I agree with the return to DEFCON 5 because the alert level represents the immediate risk of nuclear war. It is not intended to represent every medium or long term strategic danger that may result from the current situation.

The immediate risk has declined dramatically. Nobody presently appears to have the political appetite to continue the war. Not Iran, not the United States, not Israel indefinitely, and not even much of the Republican base.

A final peace agreement may never be reached, but that does not necessarily mean the fighting will resume. This may end more like the Korean War... No formal peace treaty, no true resolution, but neither side possessing the will to restart a full scale war.

That is why DEFCON 5 is appropriate under the current conditions IMHO.

👉My concern is what happens years from now. The political desire to end the conflict may produce an agreement or merely an indefinite cessation of hostilities THAT leaves the underlying nuclear and terrorism problems unresolved. 👉The immediate danger can decrease while the long term danger increases. Those are not mutually exclusive conclusions.

When I said the terrorists won, that is what I meant. They survived, the political appetite to finish the conflict has evaporated, and the West will likely declare the absence of active fighting a success while the underlying threat continues developing out of sight.

Trump appears willing to accept almost anything that allows him to announce the war is over. As I said before, he would sell his own sons into slavery if he believed it would secure a peace deal and a triumphant press conference. Even without a formal agreement, however, renewed war currently appears unlikely because the political will simply is not there.

DEFCON 5 reflects the immediate risk. My previous comments concerned the longer term consequences of how this conflict is ending.
Click to expand...
 
DarkNoon said:
I clarified my position before you saw it and responded to my initial emotionally loaded response 👇
Click to expand...
I understand your position and agree, I do however disagree with the assumption that this lays at the fault of the American people largely. (If I misread your meaning that is my bad) This was a major ****up on the part of the Administration, and even if there was more than half support for continuing conflict in Iran, the way they approached this whole thing was bad. We gave the Iranians too much time in the beginning of the war to recollect themselves after Khamenei's death, and in doing so we created a living Martyr out of his son and now Supreme Leader of the country. We should have immediately secured key outlying islands after bombing the hell out of them and continued the pressure on mainland Iran instead of trying to bluff. But none of that matter's because if we had, Iraq would have been sent into a civil war and we had already agreed to largely leave that country. The Iranian's had leverage on Trump. He hates to admit it, but he was too afraid to lose the influence that he has spent a decade or more building up in the gulf states because the royal families of the gulf aren't fond of seeing their multi billion dollar investments go up in flames. Then when he did get some of those countries involved in an offensive capability against Iran he backs down to the Iranians, saying that now those that were targeted because of his failed foresight have to pay billions to Iran in damages... It's absolute insanity. This will take decades of diplomacy to fix if that is even possible at this point. I put the blame 100% on Trump & Obama for turning this into a FP nightmare.
 
Peter Griffin said:
I understand your position and agree, I do however disagree with the assumption that this lays at the fault of the American people largely. This was a major ****up on the part of the Administration
Click to expand...
I 100% agree. End of story there. He is to blame in the immediate sense for, well, everything. Again, in the immediate sense.

However, I can look at the BIG picture because I absolutely believe both sides are a cancer on America...

MY POINT is that, by a gosh damn landslide, Iran should have been a problem America took care of a long, long, long time ago, before it ever got to this point. UNDER MANY DIFFERENT ADMINISTRATIONS, BOTH LEFT & RIGHT, America has failed for decades to address this.

I'm sorry, but as bad and as dumb as fucking Trump is, he should NEVER have been forced to deal with or even have this problem on his plate.

Because Americans want to have their cake and eat it too, neither side has been able to actually solve the Iran problem over the past several decades.

And because most Americans want the benefits of empire without actually enforcing the empire... here we are after decades of failures from BOTH parties.................

👉 You can't have a welfare economy that taxes the winners to fund infrastructure without a military that opens markets for your private companies. Otherwise, it is doomed to fail, as we are seeing right now. We somehow managed to fuck up the most successful system ever created in human history. BOTH SIDES!

😭

➡️ ➡️ ➡️ It's like both sides hold one half of a puzzle and can't come together and realize that, if they put their pieces together, it completes the puzzle!!!! For fuck's sake, people. America, wake up before it's too late! If it's not already...
 
Americans want the security, market access, trade stability, energy flows, and economic advantages associated with global primacy/being a empire, but reject the military spending, interventions, (on both sides) taxation, and long term commitments necessary to maintain it. That contradiction is real. Anyone saying other is a fool. America has always been a empire, just most lost the will to truly sustain it. Not sorry. Hopefully some here will wake the hell up. 🫰

Both sides to blame. Wake up America. 🫰🫰🫰🫰🫰 before it's to late...
 
We can both sit here all day where you say Trump is to blame and I agree fully in the immediate sence. @Peter Griffin

BUT I WILL ALWAYS bring it back to this should not have been any presidents problem today, let alone Trump's. It's decades of American failure on both the left and right.

👉I am NOT defending Trump. But sure as fuck not defending the Democrats either on this. They are EQUALLY to blame for Iran existential problem over many decades of empire rot, along with Republicans.
 
Sorry for the F-bombs. Wasn't torward anyone. Just my general disgust for the situation and me being self aware enough to see how we got here after many, many decades of empire rot self inflicted by both parties... :(
 
DarkNoon said:
The immediate risk has declined dramatically. Nobody presently appears to have the political appetite to continue the war. Not Iran
Click to expand...
I disagree with that. Iran is more than willing to continue the war. They just were offered most everything they wanted.

Snowfall said:
keep the alert fatigue away.
Click to expand...
We do not consider alert fatigue when determining the DEFCON level. DEFCON levels are solely based on the potential threat.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I disagree with that. Iran is more than willing to continue the war. They just were offered most everything they wanted.
Click to expand...
If you read my posts you would see I totally agree with you. As I said Trump will do anything to see this through.

Granted I didn't necessarily give the mechanics as to why but simply because Iran can call our bluff because we don't have the political appetite to carry something through anymore... which we haven't since the height of the Cold War.

Which has been the whole point of rant. Not just spweing words... I promise what I say makes sense if you read it. It's a lot I know. 😂
 
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