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This is The DEFCON Warning System. Alert status for 1 PM UTC, Monday, 9 November 2026:
Condition Green – DEFCON 5.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
Israel weighs how far US support could shift
Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress in the 3 November midterms and will take control in January. The result sharpened concern in Israel about future military aid and arms sales. On election day, President Donald Trump said US military aid would end this year, two years ahead of the existing timetable, while arms sales would continue. Israeli President Isaac Herzog said the announcement took him by surprise. How the proposed cut would be implemented remains unclear. Associated Press election calls · The Times of Israel
The immediate risk is a misreading of American resolve. Iran or its partners could take the dispute over aid as a sign that Washington would hesitate to intervene and see room for a limited attack. Israeli leaders, meanwhile, could become more inclined to act early if they expect less reliable US backing later. Congress can scrutinise funding and arms transfers, while decisions about an immediate US military response still rest with the administration. An adversary that confuses the two could provoke the intervention it expected to avoid. Reuters on congressional scrutiny
Tehran sees an opening, but keeps its terms
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, portrayed the US election result as a rejection of the war. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reported to have said that he expected US hostility to persist whichever party held power. Qatar confirmed that it was exchanging proposals with Washington and Tehran after talks in the Iranian capital on 2 November. Iran continued to seek an end to hostilities across the region as part of a deal. Reuters · Qatar’s Foreign Ministry
On 8 November, Trump said a strong agreement would make renewed strikes highly unlikely. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a breakthrough was still out of reach. US forces conducted limited strikes during the week and disabled a commercial vessel they accused of trying to breach the blockade of Iranian ports. Associated Press
The election raises the political cost of a wider US offensive. Tehran could use that opening to reach a deal or conclude that it can hold out for better terms. A ceasefire would reduce the immediate risk of retaliation. Restoring inspectors’ access and accounting for Iran’s previously declared stock of highly enriched uranium would address a separate risk by reducing the incentive for further strikes on nuclear sites. IAEA briefing to the UN Security Council
Iran drops its 2,000-kilometre missile limit
On 7 November, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said its self-imposed 2,000-kilometre limit on ballistic-missile range had been lifted. The announcement gave no details of a newly operational missile. The old ceiling was already an uncertain guide to capability. In March, Britain confirmed that Iran had fired two missiles towards Diego Garcia, although neither came close to the base. Tasnim News Agency · Associated Press · UK Parliament
Tehran is signalling that it may seek to hold more distant bases at risk. If Iran demonstrates reliable missiles with greater reach, more governments could face decisions about missile defence and whether to let US forces use their territory in a future conflict. That would broaden the potential conventional battlefield. Any assessment of an Iranian nuclear capability still depends on separate evidence about nuclear material and weapon development.
Turkey approves a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
Turkey’s parliament approved ratification of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 5 November, as Saudi Arabia faced renewed Houthi missile attacks. The pact treats an external armed attack on one member as an attack on all three. The members determine what assistance to provide based on the circumstances and the resources available. Entry into force requires the deposit of the final instrument of ratification, which had yet to be publicly confirmed by the time of this report. The published text contains no explicit nuclear guarantee from Pakistan. Turkish parliamentary record · Agreement text · Associated Press on the Houthi attacks
Shared radar data and stronger air defences could make attacks on Saudi Arabia less effective and reduce pressure for immediate retaliation. If Turkish or Pakistani personnel deploy to help defend the kingdom, a strike that kills them could also draw their governments into the fighting. For nuclear-armed Pakistan, that would create a route into a Gulf crisis. Islamabad said on 6 November that all three members had agreed to stay in contact with Tehran, preserving a channel for managing such an incident. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry
Beijing confirms contacts over a three-way summit
China confirmed on 4 November that it was in contact with Washington and Moscow about a possible meeting of Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Trump has raised nuclear arms control as a possible subject. Beijing has previously rejected joining three-way disarmament talks at this stage, citing the smaller size of its arsenal. The meeting and its agenda remain unsettled. China’s Foreign Ministry on the summit · China’s position on arms control · Associated Press
With New START expired since February, Washington and Moscow have no successor treaty limiting their strategic arsenals. A practical first step would be to restore regular exchanges of information on those forces and improve crisis communications. Both could reduce the chance of routine military activity being mistaken for preparations for an attack while negotiations over binding limits remain unresolved. United Nations on New START’s expiry
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organisation which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.
For immediate updates, visit www.defconwarningsystem.com. Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed @DEFCONWSAlerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays.
The next scheduled update is 1 PM, 23 November 2026. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.
This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.
Condition Green – DEFCON 5.
There are currently no imminent nuclear threats at this time.
Israel weighs how far US support could shift
Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress in the 3 November midterms and will take control in January. The result sharpened concern in Israel about future military aid and arms sales. On election day, President Donald Trump said US military aid would end this year, two years ahead of the existing timetable, while arms sales would continue. Israeli President Isaac Herzog said the announcement took him by surprise. How the proposed cut would be implemented remains unclear. Associated Press election calls · The Times of Israel
The immediate risk is a misreading of American resolve. Iran or its partners could take the dispute over aid as a sign that Washington would hesitate to intervene and see room for a limited attack. Israeli leaders, meanwhile, could become more inclined to act early if they expect less reliable US backing later. Congress can scrutinise funding and arms transfers, while decisions about an immediate US military response still rest with the administration. An adversary that confuses the two could provoke the intervention it expected to avoid. Reuters on congressional scrutiny
Tehran sees an opening, but keeps its terms
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, portrayed the US election result as a rejection of the war. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reported to have said that he expected US hostility to persist whichever party held power. Qatar confirmed that it was exchanging proposals with Washington and Tehran after talks in the Iranian capital on 2 November. Iran continued to seek an end to hostilities across the region as part of a deal. Reuters · Qatar’s Foreign Ministry
On 8 November, Trump said a strong agreement would make renewed strikes highly unlikely. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a breakthrough was still out of reach. US forces conducted limited strikes during the week and disabled a commercial vessel they accused of trying to breach the blockade of Iranian ports. Associated Press
The election raises the political cost of a wider US offensive. Tehran could use that opening to reach a deal or conclude that it can hold out for better terms. A ceasefire would reduce the immediate risk of retaliation. Restoring inspectors’ access and accounting for Iran’s previously declared stock of highly enriched uranium would address a separate risk by reducing the incentive for further strikes on nuclear sites. IAEA briefing to the UN Security Council
Iran drops its 2,000-kilometre missile limit
On 7 November, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said its self-imposed 2,000-kilometre limit on ballistic-missile range had been lifted. The announcement gave no details of a newly operational missile. The old ceiling was already an uncertain guide to capability. In March, Britain confirmed that Iran had fired two missiles towards Diego Garcia, although neither came close to the base. Tasnim News Agency · Associated Press · UK Parliament
Tehran is signalling that it may seek to hold more distant bases at risk. If Iran demonstrates reliable missiles with greater reach, more governments could face decisions about missile defence and whether to let US forces use their territory in a future conflict. That would broaden the potential conventional battlefield. Any assessment of an Iranian nuclear capability still depends on separate evidence about nuclear material and weapon development.
Turkey approves a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
Turkey’s parliament approved ratification of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 5 November, as Saudi Arabia faced renewed Houthi missile attacks. The pact treats an external armed attack on one member as an attack on all three. The members determine what assistance to provide based on the circumstances and the resources available. Entry into force requires the deposit of the final instrument of ratification, which had yet to be publicly confirmed by the time of this report. The published text contains no explicit nuclear guarantee from Pakistan. Turkish parliamentary record · Agreement text · Associated Press on the Houthi attacks
Shared radar data and stronger air defences could make attacks on Saudi Arabia less effective and reduce pressure for immediate retaliation. If Turkish or Pakistani personnel deploy to help defend the kingdom, a strike that kills them could also draw their governments into the fighting. For nuclear-armed Pakistan, that would create a route into a Gulf crisis. Islamabad said on 6 November that all three members had agreed to stay in contact with Tehran, preserving a channel for managing such an incident. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry
Beijing confirms contacts over a three-way summit
China confirmed on 4 November that it was in contact with Washington and Moscow about a possible meeting of Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the APEC summit in Shenzhen. Trump has raised nuclear arms control as a possible subject. Beijing has previously rejected joining three-way disarmament talks at this stage, citing the smaller size of its arsenal. The meeting and its agenda remain unsettled. China’s Foreign Ministry on the summit · China’s position on arms control · Associated Press
With New START expired since February, Washington and Moscow have no successor treaty limiting their strategic arsenals. A practical first step would be to restore regular exchanges of information on those forces and improve crisis communications. Both could reduce the chance of routine military activity being mistaken for preparations for an attack while negotiations over binding limits remain unresolved. United Nations on New START’s expiry
The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organisation which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats by national entities since 1984. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack. If this had been an actual attack, the DEFCON Warning System will give radiation readings for areas that are reported to it. Your readings will vary. Official news sources will have radiation readings for your area.
For immediate updates, visit www.defconwarningsystem.com. Breaking news and important information can be found on the DEFCON Warning System community forum and on the DEFCON Twitter feed @DEFCONWSAlerts. You may also subscribe to the DEFCON Warning System mailing list. Note that Twitter updates may be subject to delays.
The next scheduled update is 1 PM, 23 November 2026. Additional updates will be made as the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels.
This concludes this report of the DEFCON Warning System.