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Diplomatic Frameworks Around Ukraine Peace Deal OR Ceasefire | Reports-(CLOSED)

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Witkoff uncritically repeated several inaccurate Russian claims regarding the status of the Ukrainian territories that Russia illegally occupies. ⬇️(1/3)

1/ The Russian invasions of Ukraine have never been about protecting Russian speakers. Witkoff claimed during the March 21 interview that Russian-occupied Crimea, Donbas, and Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are "Russian-speaking" and that "there have been referendums [in these regions] where the overwhelming majority of people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule."

Russia has long used similar claims to justify its unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, having used the claim that Russia needs to "protect Russian-speakers" in eastern Ukraine to justify the launch of its full-scale invasion in 2022.

Russia has routinely undermined its own myth of "protecting Russian speakers" in Ukraine, however, destroying predominantly Russian-speaking cities in eastern Ukraine, killing Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and deporting Russian-speaking Ukrainian children to Russia in violation of international law.t.

 
“The planned joint statement expected earlier today from the United States and Russia has since been canceled for a currently unknown reason, with one of the senior diplomats on the Russian negotiation team in Saudi Arabia, Grigory Karasin stating, “We are far from a full-fledged solution or agreement on all points, but it seems that such a discussion is timely.” Adding that the negotiations were “challenging but useful” while calling for future negotiations to include the United Nations.”
 
Russia officially rejects current US proposals regarding the Ukraine peace framework.

"We take the proposed models and solutions very seriously, but we also cannot accept all of this as is. (...) All that exists today is an attempt to find some kind of scheme that would allow us to initially achieve a ceasefire, as the Americans envision it." - Deputy FM Ryabkov

He goes on to say that any serious proposals must address what Russia regards as "the root causes of the conflict": "This is completely absent, and must be overcome."

Source
 
50 US senators (including 25 Republicans) have sponsored a bill to introduce 500% tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium - in case Russia fails to engage in "good faith" negotiations on Ukraine.

Source
 
The Russian government-controlled mediasphere is turning sour on Trump. I've been observing this for several days now.

Here's an example.

Generally speaking, this mirrors a familiar pattern where Russia greets every incoming US president with unrealistic expectations - which are inevitably dashed, resulting in a major hangover. But since we're not living in normal times, this should be read in the context of RU/US/UA negotiations (or what passes for "negotiations").
 
Russia is facing significant military and economic challenges that could seriously compromise Russia's ability to wage its war in Ukraine, factors that could increase the Kremlin's desire to accomplish its objectives in a mediated ceasefire or peace negotiation in the short-term if possible.

US European Command (EUCOM) Commander and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) General Christopher Cavoli stated on April 3 that Russian forces have lost over 4,000 tanks in Ukraine. Cavoli stated that Russia started the war with a total of 13,000 tanks and are "starting to approach near the end" of the viable tanks in storage.


Cavoli also stated that the war in Ukraine has "distorted" the Russian economy and "turbocharged" the Russian defense industry at the expense of Russia's civilian economic sector and that it may be difficult for Russia to "unwind" this imbalance. Cavoli assessed that Russia will be able to replace the significant personnel losses incurred in Ukraine ahead of a future conflict in Europe but noted that Russia's ability to replace materiel losses is contingent on Ukraine's ability to inflict greater losses.

ISW previously noted that Russia's ongoing and forecasted economic struggles are closely tied to Russian losses on the battlefield and that it is not possible for the United States or the wider West to exert maximum pressure on Russia with economic tools alone.


The United States can leverage Russian vulnerabilities and achieve a stronger negotiating position by continuing — or increasing — military aid to Ukraine such that Ukrainian forces can continue to inflict significant manpower and materiel losses on Russia.

For more, read ISW's February 19 Special Report "Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage":
 
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated earlier during a press conference at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels, that Russia has a “matter of weeks” to show it is serious about peace negotiations in Ukraine, adding that if Russia starts another offensive “then we will know they are not interested in peace.”

Meanwhile the western military buildup continues while russias military continues to be degraded. ;)

 
I just want to repost this pre hotwash map I sketched at posted a day before the invasion

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And today’s floated map… Willy E. Coyote - Genius.
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Honestly I didn’t think the UA would do as well as they did. I didn’t push out hard enough around Dnipro. The SF had used Javelins in Shitastan and a few had been used on bunkers and buildings in the box but the really hadn’t stood against an armored fist and fielded by draftees.
 
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