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Escalating European Crisis | Sep. 25th/Oct. 11th | Discussions

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DarkNoon said:
ALERT
️The Polish embassy in Minsk calls on its citizens to leave Belarus.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1971388402529337530

Fuck...
⚠️
ALERT @Staff @DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Sentry @Irag8er @Torch
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This is nothing to be immediately concerned about. It's mostly due to Poland closing border crossings. It's not escalatory in nature; it's just a prudent move on Poland's part so citizens don't get trapped in Belarus. If Poland gets NATO nukes on their soil or they start evacuating people from the border areas, I'll get more concerned.
 
RiffRaff said:
This is nothing to be immediately concerned about. It's mostly due to Poland closing border crossings. It's not escalatory in nature; it's just a prudent move on Poland's part so citizens don't get trapped in Belarus. If Poland gets NATO nukes on their soil or they start evacuating people from the border areas, I'll get more concerned.
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I hope your right. For everyone's sake. Granted THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT. No strategic nuclear assets being moved to indicate a true crisis.

BUT/HOWEVER... this is not the direction I want to see us moving towards.... this "crisis" keeps moving in a direction I am entity uncomfortable with... miscalculation is my biggest fear here.
 
RiffRaff said:
This is nothing to be immediately concerned about. It's mostly due to Poland closing border crossings. It's not escalatory in nature; it's just a prudent move on Poland's part so citizens don't get trapped in Belarus. If Poland gets NATO nukes on their soil or they start evacuating people from the border areas, I'll get more concerned.
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Yeah I was just going to post that, I’m kinda surprised they didn’t release this in the weeks leading up to the zapad exercise.
 
Snowfall said:
Yeah I was just going to post that, I’m kinda surprised they didn’t release this in the weeks leading up to the zapad exercise.
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Agree. However ⤵️
DarkNoon said:
THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT. No strategic nuclear assets being moved to indicate a true crisis.
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DarkNoon said:
BUT/HOWEVER... this is not the direction I want to see us moving towards.... this "crisis" keeps moving in a direction I am entity uncomfortable with....
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Also ⤵️⬇️⬇️
DarkNoon said:
miscalculation is my biggest fear here.
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👉📣MY HONEST TAKE:
WHAT KEPT THIS WAR STABLE WAS THE STATUS QUO. THE STATUS QUO HAS CHANGED. ALL AROUND, NOT JUST ON FRONT LINES...

ANY PRECONCEIVED NOTION/ANALYSIS OF CURRENT CRISIS COMPARED TO LAST YEAR OF CONFLICT IS IRRELEVANT.... THE EQUATION/STATUS QUO HAS CHANGED❗️

WHAT THAT MEANS IS ANYONE'S GUESS... SO STAYED TUNED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS...

⤵️⬇️⬇️
MISCALCULATION IS THE BIGGEST RISK HERE. NO ONE ON ANY SIDE WANTS WAR.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry
 
It is, what it is.
Honestly we don't know for sure who's working for Putin, who's following their own Agenda or who's just bluffing.
We reached a critical point. Not the climax, not the boiling Point, but a critical point. European Politics are like a bottomless swamp, German Politics even worser.

They ignored to use their Secret Service properly (even ignored it partly) and that's what they get.
 
Bravo said:
It is, what it is.
Honestly we don't know for sure who's working for Putin, who's following their own Agenda or who's just bluffing.
We reached a critical point. Not the climax, not the boiling Point, but a critical point. European Politics are like a bottomless swamp, German Politics even worser.

They ignored to use their Secret Service properly (even ignored it partly) and that's what they get.
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Yes. I am nowhere near panic levels. But this is again not the direction I want to see.

And also again... the status quo is changing and not just on front lines... Any analysis or preconceived ideas we use to have are null now regarding this new leaf we are turning in this crisis. Anyone's guess is really just a fair shot at this point.

So we need to be tread/monitor extra carefully here.
 
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I'm not that hostile to them and I can even get some of their logic. That being said if they plan to come over here and start doing stuff they would be very sadly mistaken. Next time they dare flying into NATO friendly airspace it's time to punch them out.
 
JPod said:
I'm not that hostile to them and I can even get some of their logic. That being said if they plan to come over here and start doing stuff they would be very sadly mistaken. Next time they dare flying into NATO friendly airspace it's time to punch them out.
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I hold the Russian people to a high regard. Believe it or not know personally people in Russia and have a close freind in Russia. Wonderful people. It is their government I have issue with. More then ever.

We must call Russias bluff now. Or face the worst crisis humanity has ever faced down the near future.
 
Frankly I'm sick of Russia thinking they can put their aircraft and drones over any western airspace that they want and then threaten nuclear war when NATO decides to put an end to it. I say the next time a Mig or Bear bomber decides to invade NATO airspace, whether it's off the coast of Alaska or Poland, let the F-35's and F-22's eat.
 
DarkNoon said:
I hold the Russian people to a high regard. Believe it or not know personally people in Russia and have a close freind in Russia. Wonderful people. It is their government I have issue with. More then ever.

We must call Russias bluff now. Or face the worst crisis humanity has ever faced down the near future.
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I fear their desire may be a reaction. It’s hard to tell sometimes. Calling their bluff by shooting down things that violate airspace is always good. Weapons sent to Ukraine is always good. But we must ensure that we are not playing into the enemies hands. They obviously are escalating with an intent.
 
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intel-bank said:
They obviously are escalating with an intent.
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With the idea we roll over. If we don't... than it stops, really is that simple. Putin is only doing this because to many past US administrations have rolled over and to long has Europe/NATO sit with their thumbs up their ass to counter Putin in any meaningful way.
 
To be honest I think it was a huge strategic mistake by Putin to blow off Trump at least twice and in such a public way. Bruising Trump's ego might be his Frankenstein's monster. As we see Trumps tune has completely 180'd since February.
 
You know..... something comes to mind when it comes to NATO or European response to Russian aggression and provocation....

The phrase: Hoping the outcome changes even though you repeat the same thing over and over again? That is the definition of insanity yes? If so, NATO/EU insane.
 
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