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Finland & Sweeden Apply for NATO Membership | 2022

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Friendly Engineer said:
Russia will not be happy. Will they try and attack before Finland joins?
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In 38 days they could barely cling on to any significant territory in Ukraine.

What could Russia do? Just bomb Finland cities to rubble too? Is that the price you pay for not bending to Putin? Have your cities turned to rubble and the masses slaughtered like common pigs at a farm?
 
DarkNoon said:
In 38 days they could barely cling on to any significant territory in Ukraine.

What could Russia do? Just bomb Finland cities to rubble too? Is that the price you pay for not bending to Putin? Have your cities turned to rubble and the masses slaughtered like common pigs at a farm?
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I do agree with you here, Russia would struggle to invade Finland. Much more so considering Sweden has a defensive pact with Finland. Well equipped and well trained forces would certainly be a challenge for the Russian Army.
 
DarkNoon said:
I mean what choice does he have? Is he really going to start world war three over it?
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He may view border encroachment as a prelude to NATO attack, but this is speculation. It's the equivalent of Russia allying with Mexico, and Russia sending loads of troops to the US-Mexico border, saying that the troops are there for defensive purposes only. The US would go ape shit. I think the same is true for the Russians.
 
DarkNoon said:
It would be suicide for Putin.
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I agree, if Finland was in NATO (even without Finland in NATO I think it would be tricky for him) it would be suicide. However, I'm working off the premise that Finland would not get NATO intervention in the event of war considering they're not members yet, and Putin could (speculation) preemptively strike Finland.

However, the above is very much speculation and doubtful to happen. I think what we definitely will see is some Russian sabre rattling, and some stern messages from Sergei Lavrov, and maybe some airspace violations.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
I agree, if Finland was in NATO (even without Finland in NATO I think it would be tricky for him) it would be suicide. However, I'm working off the premise that Finland would not get NATO intervention in the event of war considering they're not members yet, and Putin could (speculation) preemptively strike Finland.

However, the above is very much speculation and doubtful to happen. I think what we definitely will see is some Russian sabre rattling, and some stern messages from Sergei Lavrov, and maybe some airspace violations.
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The technical reason Ukraine wasn’t given nato membership earlier was they were already involved in a boarder dispute, Crimea.
That is not the case in Finland
Also if Russia begins to act aggressively towards Finland. This time NATO would move much quicker.
When you start to see accusations of Finish nazi’s you will know Russia is getting ready to make a move. Finland was aligned with Germany during WW2 just as parts of Ukraine were.
No one accuses the Germans today of being nazi’s
 
Back then in 2014, Ukraine should have joined NATO quickly, some months before Crimea got invaded.
On the other hand this hybrid war had transformed Ukraine into a fierce warmachine.
And the atrocities that Russia commits today will fuse NATO together even more.
But one day this war must be fought.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
He may view border encroachment as a prelude to NATO attack, but this is speculation. It's the equivalent of Russia allying with Mexico, and Russia sending loads of troops to the US-Mexico border, saying that the troops are there for defensive purposes only. The US would go ape shit. I think the same is true for the Russians.
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Yeah we would be pretty keyed up. And there would be a day where we might have invaded.
But I don’t think we would invade Mexico under those conditions.
Besides it’s never going to happen because for the first time in forty years the boarder would actually be closed. 😏
 
Friendly Engineer said:
I agree, if Finland was in NATO (even without Finland in NATO I think it would be tricky for him) it would be suicide. However, I'm working off the premise that Finland would not get NATO intervention in the event of war considering they're not members yet, and Putin could (speculation) preemptively strike Finland.

However, the above is very much speculation and doubtful to happen. I think what we definitely will see is some Russian sabre rattling, and some stern messages from Sergei Lavrov, and maybe some airspace violations.
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From military point of view Finland as a member of Nato force Russia to get more troops in order to attack Estonia.
Please chevk distance netween these states
 
Friendly Engineer said:
He may view border encroachment as a prelude to NATO attack, but this is speculation. It's the equivalent of Russia allying with Mexico, and Russia sending loads of troops to the US-Mexico border, saying that the troops are there for defensive purposes only. The US would go ape shit. I think the same is true for the Russians.
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It’s become aware to me that in this current Russian Psyche just being there on their boarder IS an attack.
Looking closer at the Russian Finland relationship. Russia ask themselves why cannot these Slavic nations behave and act like Finland. Be independent and neutral and we will leave them alone and everyone will be happy.
There is some logic to that, true.
But Finland is separate and different relationship than Ukraine.
Russia and Finland have already fought two major wars. Because of circumstances there last war ended in a unique war. Russia invaded with a million strong and Finland mobilize everyone 18-60 male and female and bled Russia badly. Finland only ever defended their agreed upon boarders. Stalin respected that in his own way and never retaliated.
And that boarder has been stable for decades.

Much might could be learned from this.
Ukraine and NATO should be very careful to give no perceived indication real or imagined that any Russian boarder will be violated. Yet continue to fight them and bleed them as badly as possible in Ukraine. Yet act and move with strength to that purpose alone.
Zelinski will have to navigate and find a resolution that works and that will be hard.
Russia believed Ukrainians would welcome their Russian brothers and they were wrong.
NATO (and myself) believed with enough Russian loses the Russian people would see the error of their leadership.

This nuance of who and what is a NAZI in this region I for one was not cognizant of. Our Russia speakers here failed to communicate this in a clear way for us.
From an American view I hear nazi and racist thrown around and I dismiss it as so much propaganda trash that should be ignored as so much histrionic clap trap.
The Russian and maybe Slavic view has nothing to do with who and what the nazis actually were but what they did to actual people groups.
It is imprecise to use it that way and caused a great deal of confusion, purposely or inadvertent.

Ukraine’s independence and boarders must be recognized. And just as much so Russia must know and appreciate their current and actual boarders will be respected and honored.
Their is no malice in the mind of any westerner that wants to see Russia disappear as a nation or a people.
Statements by western leaders decrying war crimes of its soldiers or Putin himself are not really helpful in achieving the goal of secure boarders for all and building trust.
I suspect any time those charges are leveled the Russians their gut response is their coming for “me” or my homeland.
There is no way out for them when that emotion is struck in their mind.
Westerners need to avoid these charges because it creates a no win scenario for Russia
Just as the charges of all Ukrainians are NAZIs and were never really a nation created a no win scenario for Ukrainians.
 
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What are the chances they are actually accepted? Ukraine certainly wasn't going to make it in given the current war. But Finland and Sweden are different and yet as a border country, Finland carries just as much importance or less as ukraine.
 
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