Former Donetssk President Warns of "Big War" Soon

[ArmyATC]

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Former Donetssk President Warns of "Big War" Soon

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A ceasefire is likely to collapse in east Ukraine and Russia could be drawn into a "big war" to cleanse the "sore on its borders", the former leader of the region's pro-Russian separatists said.

Violence has eased but not halted in east Ukraine under what are known as the Minsk 2 agreements, reached in the Belarussian capital on Feb. 12 after an earlier ceasefire collapsed.

Alexander Borodai, a Russian citizen and former journalist for nationalist newspapers who emerged last year as prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), said he expects the Ukrainian army to launch a new offensive.

"To be honest, I expect that the Minsk 2 agreements will not be observed, in the same manner as the Minsk 1 agreements were not," Borodai said in an interview this week in a Moscow restaurant surrounded by former rebel commanders.

"And at the end of the day the Ukrainian army will launch an offensive. This is a very probable development ... I am not sure that it will end without a big war, as Russia cannot tolerate this sore on its borders forever."

Apparently Intel from both Russia and the Rebels have intercepted communication of major Ukrainian offensive this summer.

Could be propaganda, but troop movements and weapons have started to occupy a defensive perimeter in very hasty manner. Any one else know about this?

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-former-leader-ukraine-rebels-warns-big-war-142451499.html

 

[zawadoo]

...he said for the 500th time.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

We've always known that Russia wasn't done in the area. But before they can launch a new offensive, they need to justify it. If they can claim that Ukraine is launching an attack, that will give Russia the excuse they need to go in and take more land, which is their goal.

 

[AlbertGrand]

I would still be very surprised if there is a Ukrainian offensive at this time, as desperate as we know Poro is. Ukraine still has control of Mariupol. I don't think they'd risk losing it in a devastating counter attack at this time to get deeper into Donetsk.

More likely is the DPR staging some sort of false flag as an excuse for a Russian offensive. Thomas Theiner the Kiev-based blogger told us to watch if Greece goes bust - EU otherwise engaged, the perfect cover for a Russian land grab. This could well be propaganda to 'lay the ground'. But very transparent propaganda IMO. Russians are supposed to be so clever, master chess players etc, but some of their actions display the mentality of naughty children. :roll:

 

[ArmyATC]

I would still be very surprised if there is a Ukrainian offensive at this time, as desperate as we know Poro is. Ukraine still has control of Mariupol. I don't think they'd risk losing it in a devastating counter attack at this time to get deeper into Donetsk.

More likely is the DPR staging some sort of false flag as an excuse for a Russian offensive. Thomas Theiner the Kiev-based blogger told us to watch if Greece goes bust - EU otherwise engaged, the perfect cover for a Russian land grab. This could well be propaganda to 'lay the ground'. But very transparent propaganda IMO. Russians are supposed to be so clever, master chess players etc, but some of their actions display the mentality of naughty children. :roll:

Which is why .. Poro is so desperate and there is a tidal wave (at least surrounding him) feeding Anti-Russian hate speech to him.

'You are losing control because the people are desperate for resolution",'the Russians and company have nothing to lose by violating Minsk, they will just propagandize the facts to make you culpable', You and you family will end up dead,' the US sends us only 350 advisors, then cuts deals behind our backs,' etc, etc.

All day long this is overtly or covertly told to him. Ask yourself, who has more to gain by riding this out with the occasional cease fire violation, Poro or the rebels? Also qui bono from a violation at all? Only the pro-Russian side. Therefore, if I were a smaller proxy force, I would do everything to draw Ukraine into an offensive. I would use Russian propaganda operational skills and technology (cyber) to even make it appear Poro is losing grip and has done this.

Think also about this. Poro has a social security issue (no or reduced payments for over a year), a food/water/medicine issue. A Crimea 'must' reunify policy, and a budget crisis in which the Washington IMF refuses to loan him momey he can never pay back. This is because he does not have the industrial part of the country to be used as collateral, and all looters want hard assets. Ukraine, as it stands now, is a Russian-based economy. It would take years of risky investments with zero probablibility of return to make the change. The currency is hyperinflationg by the second. In other words, he has already lost economic control. Hearts nd minds will follow.

Even Putin is not sending money to the rebels. Weapons and cannon fodder yes, but as a business opportunity, Putin says its Kiev's job to spend th money to rebuild and start social services. Or else Putin would have already done it, thus winning the hearts and minds without firing a bullet.

And much more that make him ripe for either acting out of desperation. I give this a 75% chance of some major violation (offensive) very soon since these deplorable living conditions and power struggles cannot last longer. Whether its Poro or not, well again, qui bono and why hasn't Putin saved the financial day already since Poro cant because he has no money?

It's getting to be crunch time as all sides windows of opportunity are closing one way or another. Ukraine and the rebels dont have the luxury of time, wouldnt you agree?

 

[Encyclopath]

If Russia ends up getting militarily entangled in stabilizing Armenia, I'd say there's a great chance of a massive push to retake Donbas, in the form of another ATO style offensive. Both times I recall that being carried out, the Ukrainian forces beat back the separatists at a rapid pace, until, both times, Russia's direct intervention quickly halted, then routed the UKR forces (re:Illyask,Skyporone(sp??)

If there's a reasonable chance that there will be a window wherein Russia can't focus primarily on providing full spectrum support to the the separatists, I think Poro will and should take it.

Of course, even without active support during that time, the seps. still benefit from all that hardware that they found lying around since the last major ATO, so it'll be a hard slog for them. Reports of seps. building up defensive capabilities wouldn't surprise me at all if they expect Russia may be forced to walk back their support in the coming months.

I do wonder how much the seps. might continue to benefit from the more advanced systems without Russian operators at the controls. Historically in this conflict, letting them play with some of the fancier Russian toys without proper supervision ended very poorly for both parties.

Of course, this might end up resulting in an outcome possibly even more dangerous than a Russian strategic victory: A major Russian strategic defeat.
Could the West ultimately end up losing by way of winning?

 

[jayfeather31]

We've always known that Russia wasn't done in the area. But before they can launch a new offensive, they need to justify it. If they can claim that Ukraine is launching an attack, that will give Russia the excuse they need to go in and take more land, which is their goal.

Agreed. Although I'm not sure a justification will save them, as their invasion might result in a justification for us.

 

[AlbertGrand]

We've always known that Russia wasn't done in the area. But before they can launch a new offensive, they need to justify it. If they can claim that Ukraine is launching an attack, that will give Russia the excuse they need to go in and take more land, which is their goal.

Agreed. Although I'm not sure a justification will save them, as their invasion might result in a justification for us.

If Obama has anything to do with it, I don't think actual US or NATO military intervention - ie fighting, not the training that's being done at the mo - in Ukraine is on the agenda, unless it spills into NATO countries.

Having said that, how much control does Obama have over... well, anything anymore?

 

[AlbertGrand]

...he said for the 500th time.

Constant saber rattling is a common technique to instill alert fatigue preceeding an actual attack which might be weeks, months or years away. AKA strategic crying wolf.

But isn't crying wolf the opposite of sabre rattling? The Americans have been doing it virtually since Minsk 2 was signed. Breedlove was exaggerating the Russian build-up on the border (which has since become a self-fulfilling prophecy - as if the Russians thought 'ha, no-one believes you! Now let's really do this and see what reaction you get now!'). Wesley Clark had his 'Russian offensive within 60 days' moment... on 30th March. Poroshenko is constantly changing his mind over what Russia is going to do. The only thing it does is fatigue your own side, surely? If they start to lose faith in people who are supposed to be leading their defence?

This DPR thing is different, maneuvering. More worrying. They've gone from actual threats and sabre rattling to claiming the other side's going to do something, a definite change in emphasis.

 

[AlbertGrand]

It's getting to be crunch time as all sides windows of opportunity are closing one way or another. Ukraine and the rebels dont have the luxury of time, wouldnt you agree?

The Ukrainian side have more to gain from waiting than the Russians. We have all this training going on with various units - Ukraine will be at more of an advantage once this is further down the road, once more of their fighters have been brought up to NATO standards. Also, they're still probably hoping on a change in Washington re supply of arms.

The rebels, on the other hand, probably can't wait to get started. They've surely got enough supplies and ammo now to get them through whatever's coming. And their Russian 'colleagues and partners' probably want to get it over with so they can get their job done and get home... the wait must be killing their morale. I still expect the first move to come from the 'combined forces', after a false flag or blatant provocation.

I'm not sure Armenia is as big a thing as it first appears, reading this.... unless Putin is daft enough to make it so.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/25/armenia-yerevan-protests-kremlin-ukraine

Russia would clearly be stupid to get involved, and Ukraine stupid to put their hopes on it.

 

[Encyclopath]

I'm not sure Armenia is as big a thing as it first appears, reading this.... unless Putin is daft enough to make it so.

Yeah, I've come to that conclusion as well. If nothing else, Moscow has the ability to end the dispute at any point by simply arranging a slightly lower rate hike %. It seems like they're waiting for the window where it would make them look merciful and generous, but not weak and caving into demands.
It might be too much of a caricature of Russia policy to expect them to respond to the demands with "No, and we'll invade if you ask again, and then you'll thank us for it." but there've been similarly cartoonist words and actions that actually did happen lately. Hard to tell for sure.