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Global Escalation Risk Calculations

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ambrosia12 said:
i’ve seen a lot of talk on X that there’s going to be an energy shut down - like covid where you can’t drive use power etc does anyone believe this?
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Really depends. Like I been saying. If anyone says they thinks they know where this conflict will be in a week or two is full of shit. Things happening at to fast of a pace and so much that many thought wouldn't happen, happened. Given the scale of everyone involved too. Really anyone's guess how far this goes.

It could end tomorrow. Or we could see a great global economic collapse in a month or two if Iran refuses peace. Or any other hundreds of possibilities.
 
NuclearID said:
Follow the report thread and you shouldn't be left out of important information. Yes I post a lot. But I personally very rarely post in yellow font. So when you see a post in yellow font in report thread that's what you should pay attention too. Anything in white font you can realistically skip my reports, just not the yellow ones.

Yellow reports are what I would consider true escalation or important context.

I mean... I think just in the last 4 days out of the 800 reports only 6 where yellow (from me). So. 🤷 just skim report threads for yellow report fonts from me. You should then be kept in the loop of the most essentially critical stuff.
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my primary would be shawn ryan and what has been reported is some really scarry stuff.
 
Lostpuppy said:
Sadly with a president using playground tactics Nato will be tested,
Alliances are fracturing due to this. If Putin and Ji and watching , who will test the USA .

The Nato allys would certainly fullfill artivle 5,

Not join in a war that wasnt theirs,

Europe has enjoyed the roller coaster ride of tarrif on, tariffs off, threat of a “friendly” ally taking over Greenland,

Constant bully tactics doesnt gain trust, its a diplomacy disaster at the cost of the american taxpayer.

So a recent pout party says the allies are duffing him? The art of the game , while good in some senses is not good on the international playing field,

You cant expect your allies to come running to support a war they didnt start!

Putin and Ji win!

It only took one bullet to start WW3

What to come?

1) US President formally pulls out of NATO
2) US becomes invloved in long Mid East conflict
3) China see weakness in NATO resolve
4) China activates Taiwan absorption.
5) NKorea seeing weakness as US resolve is tested by its own alliance weakkness engages S Korea.

6) Axis proxy forces activate on US soil wreaking havoc and terror. Mytery explosions on US oil assetS around the world

7) Russia seizes the opportunity Belarus has a false flag event with Poland, Russia come to aid,
8) Russia invades Lituania, Estonia , Belarus crosses ito Poland,
9)Article 5 invoked, NATO eastern flank collapses rapidly,
10) Russia Threatens Nuclear launches if europe foesnt surrender.
11) Ukraine, Moldova, Romania Bulgaria collspses
12) Turkey flips sides

Nuclear threshold is cross Tactical example nukes or deployed by Russia,
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Good lord, shall we extrapolate this out to Armageddon.
Can we find any more nefarious points of collusion and collapse.
How about the Mongol hordes sweeping across the steep.
 
Publius said:
Good lord, shall we extrapolate this out to Armageddon.
Can we find any more nefarious points of collusion and collapse.
How about the Mongol hordes sweeping across the steep.
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Thanks now you added religion to the mess,you just made it that much more real, 🤔
 
ambrosia12 said:
i’ve seen a lot of talk on X that there’s going to be an energy shut down - like covid where you can’t drive use power etc does anyone believe this?
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No, one reponed, the team here seems to follow X alot and rely on its validity,

there are many ways to triangulate information , its quite easy but can take a coffee while you drill thru someone retweets,
Do you have the tweet? Nuc ID has a pretty good handle in twetings,
I go at it in a more forensic way.
 
Lostpuppy said:
So ready to learn?
With marines arriving shortly, and 48 hours warnings happening we have short period to get out hyperfast learning,
Excuse the spelling, i am going fast, trying to itegrate talk and spell😡

hopefully you gain knowledge on how to:

Build a multi-source intelligence picture
Separate fact vs noise vs deception
Apply mathematrical escalation models
Identify pre-war vs cascade vs active global war states
Produce clear, unsoftened and maybe scary strategic conclusions🤞🏻🔮

Hopefully peace breaks out before then.

Tomoro …,,
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Obviously when conditions are fluid you have to have a flexible information system to properly drill and triangulate the truth or not of a given headline,
 
Forensically reading of headlines and discovering the riddles is a way to not only summarize news, but extract signal, model escalation, and reach defensible conclusions

Collect → Validate → Model → Stress-Test → Conclude

You will need to develope a mindset,

Break “news consumption” habits and replace with analytical discipline

Use Core principles ;

All information is biased or incomplete

Conflicting reports are valuable, not problematic

Absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence

Systems matter more than events

try this Exercise:

Take one headline about the Strait of Hormuz and write:

What is claimed
What is NOT proven
What must be true if the claim is accurate?

Hopefully by using some of the concept presented you will be able to

Build a multi-source intelligence picture

Separate fact vs noise vs deception

Apply mathematical escalation models

Identify pre-war vs cascade vs active global war states

Produce clear, unsoftened strategic conclusions
 
Lesson 2, Today headlines are a perfect seguay into it….
Build a good OSINT INGESTION ENGINE

Lets build a multi-layer data intake system.

Some required sources:

Many, many more is better
Government (DoD, UN, national statements)
Think tanks (Atlantic Council, RAND Corporation)
Media (Reuters, NPR)
Market data (oil, shipping, commodities)

Technique: TRIANGULATION

Every claim must be classified:
CONFIRMED
LIKELY
CONTESTED
FALSE / UNVERIFIED

Todays exercise exercise:

(I just did this with the Trump statement)

Compare 3 sources reporting on Iran–Gulf conflict:

Identify contradictions😂

Assign confidence levels🤔

You can see how this is building🤔👍🏻
 
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Lesson 3 GLOBAL CONFLICT MAPPING

Objective:
See the entire system, not isolated wars
Required Mapping:

Russian invasion of Ukraine
Middle East war (Israel–Iran system)
Sudanese civil war
Asia-Pacific tensions (Taiwan, South China Sea)
SE Asia activity
political elections or change of powers

Output Format

For each conflict: Research

Scale: Local / Regional / Strategic
eg, (US /Iran(regional multiple states)

External Actors: Who is involved?

Deep dive the actors, motivations, history of conflict, external support actors, financial interplay,

Trajectory: Escalating / Stable / De-escalating

This is where a spreadsheet or other form of data management come in handy, You will want to begin applying a numerica valuations system,
As we are trying calculate probablity we have to create a factor of historical norms.
What does that mean?
Take historical accounts and facts leading up to previous events , wars , altercations with each combatant,
from the facts can you identify any patterens of behaviour?
Each of the evidence become a data point. (Simplify 1-10 for escaltory events, negative -1to-10 for deescalatory events)

Tomorow, we get more into applying the values,
The goal, good investigation of facts, lots of facts!
And reducing opinionated guesses.
 
So time to play a game?
America goes ahead and withdraws from Nato, full divorce, no one wants the kids,

Europe aborts the GCC oil supply begin to buy Canadian oil,
Canadian oil changes direction with pipeline to Churchill and both coasts,
The northwest passage is a toll route
Canada now boosts its production for SAAB, and many weapons manfactoring,
After thinking of ukraine, Nato countries aggree to equip all NATO, nations with nuclear weapons

OPec is in panic mode,
Russian oil may not be cheap enough for the changes,
China tskes the opportunity to buy up Opec supplies,

Austrailia pushes its own program,

There are st least 17 more variables missing,

Anyone geopoloticlly smart to think out the problem?
The reality of this may be closer than we think……..
Gold stars for good answers,
 
Lostpuppy said:
So time to play a game?
America goes ahead and withdraws from Nato, full divorce, no one wants the kids,

Europe aborts the GCC oil supply begin to buy Canadian oil,
Canadian oil changes direction with pipeline to Churchill and both coasts,
The northwest passage is a toll route
Canada now boosts its production for SAAB, and many weapons manfactoring,
After thinking of ukraine, Nato countries aggree to equip all NATO, nations with nuclear weapons

OPec is in panic mode,
Russian oil may not be cheap enough for the changes,
China tskes the opportunity to buy up Opec supplies,

Austrailia pushes its own program,

There are st least 17 more variables missing,

Anyone geopoloticlly smart to think out the problem?
The reality of this may be closer than we think……..
Gold stars for good answers,
Click to expand...
can i get world in conflict for 2000 bob.
 
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