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Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, says discussion is underway over whether Iran should retain its existing nuclear doctrine if another war breaks out.
Rezaei stressed that Iran has not made an official decision to change its nuclear doctrine.
According to an Iranian account of his televised remarks, Rezaei said:
“No new decision has been made regarding a change in our nuclear doctrine. However, the question has been raised: if war breaks out again, do we want to retain our previous doctrine or not?”
This distinction is important.
Rezaei did not directly say that Iran has decided to develop nuclear weapons, nor did he explicitly say that another war would automatically cause Iran to build them. Rather, he said the question of retaining Iran's existing nuclear doctrine is now being discussed.
Iran's publicly declared nuclear doctrine has long rejected nuclear weapons. As recently as September, Rezaei himself said Iran remained committed to its policy of non-weaponisation and to the religious prohibition against nuclear weapons, although he also warned that Iran could not know what would happen in the future.
Rezaei's position makes the statement significant. He is Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, one of the principal bodies responsible for Iranian national-security policy. His acknowledgement that the issue is now being discussed indicates something beyond an individual parliamentarian calling for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
At the same time, there is no evidence at this point that the Supreme National Security Council has formally ordered a review, that Iran's leadership has changed its nuclear doctrine, or that Iran has decided to pursue nuclear weapons.
The development therefore represents nuclear signalling and evidence of an internal policy debate, rather than a confirmed Iranian decision to obtain nuclear weapons.
The DEFCON Warning System will continue to monitor for an official doctrinal change, action by the Supreme National Security Council or Supreme Leader, movement toward withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or evidence of weaponisation-related activity.
Rezaei stressed that Iran has not made an official decision to change its nuclear doctrine.
According to an Iranian account of his televised remarks, Rezaei said:
“No new decision has been made regarding a change in our nuclear doctrine. However, the question has been raised: if war breaks out again, do we want to retain our previous doctrine or not?”
This distinction is important.
Rezaei did not directly say that Iran has decided to develop nuclear weapons, nor did he explicitly say that another war would automatically cause Iran to build them. Rather, he said the question of retaining Iran's existing nuclear doctrine is now being discussed.
Iran's publicly declared nuclear doctrine has long rejected nuclear weapons. As recently as September, Rezaei himself said Iran remained committed to its policy of non-weaponisation and to the religious prohibition against nuclear weapons, although he also warned that Iran could not know what would happen in the future.
Rezaei's position makes the statement significant. He is Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, one of the principal bodies responsible for Iranian national-security policy. His acknowledgement that the issue is now being discussed indicates something beyond an individual parliamentarian calling for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
At the same time, there is no evidence at this point that the Supreme National Security Council has formally ordered a review, that Iran's leadership has changed its nuclear doctrine, or that Iran has decided to pursue nuclear weapons.
The development therefore represents nuclear signalling and evidence of an internal policy debate, rather than a confirmed Iranian decision to obtain nuclear weapons.
The DEFCON Warning System will continue to monitor for an official doctrinal change, action by the Supreme National Security Council or Supreme Leader, movement toward withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or evidence of weaponisation-related activity.