Iran Isn’t the Prize

[william]

Many look at the Iran war and conclude Trump has no strategy, no focus, no off‑ramp, that frustration is understandable, it is also overstated. The mistake is treating Iran as both a monolith and the main event, it is neither. Iran is not a monolith because the IRGC’s ideological core is not the whole country, weakening the Guards also buys time for unarmed resistance and for the rest of Iran to breathe, and Iran is not the prize because the larger contest is not Washington versus Tehran, but the United States versus China.

President Trump’s Iran strategy is about constraint, not regime change, the goals are to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and disrupt the IRGC’s ability to finance terrorism and proxy warfare, on those metrics, the picture is far stronger than the daily noise suggests.

Iran’s strategic position is deteriorating, under repeated strikes, tightening sanctions, and episodic embargoes, its room to maneuver is smaller and its leverage more costly to generate. U.S. and Israeli operations have damaged nuclear and conventional capabilities and forced Tehran into a ceasefire that reopened Hormuz, Sec Bessent’s campaign against Iran’s shadow banking, exchange houses, front companies, and shipping networks has gone after tens of billions in sanctions evasion, the IRGC’s funding channels are being systematically attacked.

Regionally, Trump’s Saudi civilian nuclear deal, explicitly conditioned on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, turns the nuclear file into leverage for a balancing bloc, the Israel–Lebanon framework, with Lebanese army “pilot zones” and phased Israeli withdrawal, is designed to unwind Hezbollah’s forward base in stages rather than through occupation, and looming behind all of this is Beijing, China has long used Iran as a pawn, both to pin down U.S. attention in the Middle East and as a discounted, sanctions‑shadowed source of energy.

If this holds, the dialectic resolves in one direction, Iran is not an end in itself, Iran is about China. As the Iran risk premium comes out of oil, prices will drift lower, inflation fears will ease, rate cuts will come back on the table, growth will accelerate, risk premia will compress and multiples will expand, a peace dividend is on its way.

In my view, the Iranian nuclear threat is effectively off the table for the foreseeable future, the financing of global terror has been materially reduced, and the West has accepted that Pax Americana is over, we are back in a hard great‑power game, where hard power is once again the core instrument of policy, and where the Thucydides Trap between the United States and China is the central danger that must be managed.

So don’t kid yourself, by the standards that matter, reopening Hormuz, degrading Iran’s military and financial leverage, and tightening the regional ring around the IRGC, Trump has largely won the Iran war. The Iran file will be settled, and to be frank, it is a sideshow, the real focus is the great game between the United States and China, and boxing in Tehran is about clearing the board for the contest that will define the century.

Would you like to play a game of chess!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2085495944347369549

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

by the standards that matter, reopening Hormuz, degrading Iran’s military and financial leverage, and tightening the regional ring around the IRGC, Trump has largely won the Iran war.

Someone is not facing reality.

 

[william]

Someone is not facing reality.

Could be but, two of the three things in this statement have been attained haven't they?

by the standards that matter, reopening Hormuz, degrading Iran’s military and financial leverage, and tightening the regional ring around the IRGC, Trump has largely won the Iran war.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

degrading Iran’s military and financial leverage, and tightening the regional ring around the IRGC

Yes, Iran has been hurt. The problem is that the leadership is willing to accept the hurt. The West appears not to.

Coalitions are forming against Iran, but this isn't news. Iran is pretty much universally hated in the Middle East. So this "regional ring" was already in place.

 

[Irag8er]

Yes, Iran has been hurt. The problem is that the leadership is willing to accept the hurt. The West appears not to.

Coalitions are forming against Iran, but this isn't news. Iran is pretty much universally hated in the Middle East. So this "regional ring" was already in place.

Yes but what could/may the US offer this ring to finish the job?

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Yes but what could/may the US offer this ring to finish the job?

That is a good question. The better questions is: Why haven't they done so already?

Several ME States have been attacked by Iran. Why haven't they responded?

 

[Irag8er]

That is a good question. The better questions is: Why haven't they done so already?

Several ME States have been attacked by Iran. Why haven't they responded?

Possibly waiting, and hoping, to see what the other guy was going to do to retaliate.
Solidifying, confirming the regional pact after realizing no one was going to act alone.
The big one....getting a guarantee of full and absolute support from the U.S.

 

[Torch]

Yes but what could/may the US offer this ring to finish the job?

A profoundly stupid act by Iran. Thats it. Nothing else. There would need to be a terrorist attack with large loss of American lives, or fantastically successful (unsuccessful) attack on USA Forces with large loss of life and destruction of major equipment (Navy Ship, Air Force AWAC’s, US Command Center).

Without something like that or worse, its clear Trump wants not part in operations against Iran. Maybe after the election but only if Trump stays impeachment proof. If not Trump will already be under impeachment Day One.

 

[Torch]

That is a good question. The better questions is: Why haven't they done so already?

Several ME States have been attacked by Iran. Why haven't they responded?

They are awaiting the USA. Since the Kurds betrayed us and kept all arms and cash meant for an Iranian Resistance, and kept all of their cash and arms given for a Kurdish uprising, the only course left is a US invasion with a great many casualties which no one will accept atm. Im hawkish but (hopefully) not stupid, and I am disinterested. Other than the Islands.

I think that European showing its failing backbone and only rising to its own defense like a flacid ballon and then actually blocking American operations which mostly protect Europe, stung Trump hard. Its was a betrayal most fowl.

If Europe could not, even as the most threaten group, simply stand aside, then they are not worth saving. I believe Trump will leave them to their well earned rewards.

 

[GBS61]

Since the Kurds betrayed us

Historical and geopolitical reality demonstrates precisely the opposite: it is the Kurds who have been repeatedly abandoned by the United States. Kurdish forces acted as the main ally on the ground for the international coalition in defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq.

The US is not a reliable country; it's best to stay away from them.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Trump will already be under impeachment Day One.

Oh that is happening, but it shouldn't affect his ability to utilise the military. The issue is when he runs up against the time limit to use the miltiary and Congress doesn't authorise an extension, which they won't.

 

[Torch]

Oh that is happening, but it shouldn't affect his ability to utilise the military. The issue is when he runs up against the time limit to use the miltiary and Congress doesn't authorise an extension, which they won't.

There is no time limit between operations. He can have a new operation every 61 days with troops just on a high defensive posture 1 day. In fact he could have overlapping operations and transfer “discovered and regionally available units”

Or he can just say FU and do it anyways. It almost a sure bet that the supreme court is not going to take a constitutionally expansive or creative view in favor of congress.


Of course Im probably wrong. I am definitely in the “War Powers act is complete garbage and unconstitutional” side of things. The commander in chief is. Congresses recourse is to impeach, convict and remove if they are un happy.

 

[Torch]

Historical and geopolitical reality demonstrates precisely the opposite: it is the Kurds who have been repeatedly abandoned by the United States. Kurdish forces acted as the main ally on the ground for the international coalition in defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq.

That has nothing to do with stealing hundreds of millions of dollars in cash? weapons and warfighting equipment given to the Irainian people by the USA.

The US is not a reliable country; it's best to stay away from them.

Opinions vary. Mostly people must help themselves.