Is it possible to do a Pearl Harbor sneak attack in the modern era

[william]

And how would you do it? Thoughts.
Let's war game this.

 

[Onoya]

With drone maybe? (arriving on land conceal in trucks etc... nearby the target and then taking off to attack)

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

With drone maybe? (arriving on land conceal in trucks etc... nearby the target and then taking off to attack)

That's actually a good method. And don't let's forget hypersonic missiles.

 

[william]

With drone maybe? (arriving on land conceal in trucks etc... nearby the target and then taking off to attack)

Wouldn't even have to be on trucks. We've all seen the reports of land next strategic military sites being bought up by adversaries. Here's one just from today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2094386718669713422

 

[william]

I wonder if it is possible to disable an ICBM silo cover with a drone? I know they are thick and robust. I also know they are very well guarded against Humint sabotage. Not so sure about Drones though.

 

[GBS61]

The “Cyber Pearl Harbor”: A major attack could begin without a single shot being fired. Powerful adversarial states (such as China or Russia) have the capability to inject dormant malware into critical U.S. infrastructure. A coordinated assault could instantly disable: the electrical grid and water distribution; military communication systems and Pentagon servers; and logistical infrastructure, paralyzing the troops' ability to respond.

 

[GBS61]

Space and Hypersonic Attack: To paralyze the US military, an adversary of equivalent size would seek to overwhelm its defense systems before striking. Space Warfare: Destruction or jamming of US GPS and communication satellites, essential for guiding their missiles and coordinating their forces. Hypersonic Strike: Use of hypersonic missiles flying at over Mach 5. Their extreme speed compresses the reaction time of US air defenses to just a few minutes, making an instantaneous destructive strike possible on key bases in the Indo-Pacific (such as Guam or Okinawa).

 

[GBS61]

Asymmetric and terrorist strikes: The element of surprise has already evolved in the past, notably during the attacks of September 11, 2001, which were described at the time as a "new Pearl Harbor." Today, the massive use of swarms of low-cost drones or sabotage weapons by non-state actors (or proxy forces) represents a permanent saturation threat to ports and naval bases on American soil.

 

[GBS61]

Why do the United States remain vulnerable despite its power? Technological dependence: The dominance of the American military rests entirely on data, the internet, and space. Cutting off these access points would instantly negate much of its superiority. The illusion of security: Experts often point out that the main commonality between Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and the war in Ukraine is the overconfidence of a country that refuses to believe in the imminence of a catastrophic scenario.

 

[william]

Would a SSBN fire if it lost all communication with STREATCON? I think it would be possible to disable the satellites and redundancy ground VLF stations that give the subs their EAMs.

 

[william]

Interesting stuff to think about and hopefully that is all it every will be.

 

[GBS61]

I remember Vladimir Putin once saying:

"The best attack is a surprise attack!"

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I wonder if it is possible to disable an ICBM silo cover with a drone? I know they are thick and robust. I also know they are very well guarded against Humint sabotage. Not so sure about Drones though.

Silos are hardened. That is why they have an individual warhead for each, and are surface burst.

Mobile launchers, on the other hand, if you can find them...

 

[william]

Silos are hardened. That is why they have an individual warhead for each, and are surface burst.

Mobile launchers, on the other hand, if you can find them...

Doesn't the silo cover slide down a track to open? That seems like it would be vulnerable to an explosive drone attack to me. Take out the track and the missile door can't open.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Doesn't the silo cover slide down a track to open? That seems like it would be vulnerable to an explosive drone attack to me. Take out the track and the missile door can't open.

That is a good point.

 

[william]

I think the key to a sneak attack on the US would be to disrupt or deny the VLF to the deployed subs through jamming the signal or taking out the satellites by blinding them with lasers or destroying them with hunter killer satellites, probably both. At the same time take out the ground transmitters by a SF raid or cruise missile attack. Leave the subs unaware, down there in the dark.

Again, at the same time I would crater every strategic airframe runway in the country by drone attack from all the property we've let them buy over the years. Destroy every port by nuclear cruise missiles and that nuclear torpedo the Russians have, decapitate the political and military leadership by detonating nuclear weapons suspended in the middle of bottled water delivery trucks at the pentagon and capital by suicide bombers, while they were in session. Possibly at something like the State of the Union address. It is possible the delivery trucks could back right up to the loading docks. Now I'm sure they would be searched but are they going to move 50 heavy water jugs. Probably not, most likely they are going to open the back, look in and scan them. No radiation would be detected because the devices would be shielded by water and what they were incased in. You could even get them in the country in the first place the same way. All this would take place in the span of like 5 to 10 minutes.

After this was done, I would transmit my own VLF to the subs saying the war was over and if they fired, I was prepared to use chemical and biological weapons on every major city.

Before you ask, yes, I hope people that are responsible for the defense of this country see this so they can defend against something like this.

 

[williamcorlin]

And how would you do it? Thoughts.
Let's war game this.

I think the biggest difference from Pearl Harbor is the amount of redundancy and early-warning capability today. A surprise attack is still conceivable, but completely paralyzing a major nuclear power in a few minutes would be an enormous challenge. Cyber, space, drones, and long-range weapons could all complicate the picture, but I’d be more interested in how resilient command-and-control and backup systems are than in the specific mechanics of attacking them.

 

[HoldFast]

Ok, take out nuclear delivery and National Command Authority, then what's the next move? What's the objective in this war?

If its America, you have a Red Dawn scenario.

 

[william]

I think the biggest difference from Pearl Harbor is the amount of redundancy and early-warning capability today. A surprise attack is still conceivable, but completely paralyzing a major nuclear power in a few minutes would be an enormous challenge. Cyber, space, drones, and long-range weapons could all complicate the picture, but I’d be more interested in how resilient command-and-control and backup systems are than in the specific mechanics of attacking them.

Of course it would not be easy. I do think it is possible in the modern era though. Everything I laid out in my little scenario is available today. The only question I think is, would the subs launch under the threat of chemical and biological weapons being used on US cites after the collapse of the political and military leadership?

 

[william]

Ok, take out nuclear delivery and National Command Authority, then what's the next move? What's the objective in this war?

If its America, you have a Red Dawn scenario.

What is the objective of any war. "Political objectives by other means" No more political party system in the US. I think half the country would like to see this. IMO