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May/2025 | India-Pakistan | Escalating Crisis DEFCON 3 | Discussions

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So did Trump interject and say he and Vance caused the ceasefire, or did india/pac agree themselves?

The article/statement stating no us involvement did come first?
 
So did Trump interject and say he and Vance caused the ceasefire, or did india/pac agree themselves?

The article/statement stating no us involvement did come first?
Pakistan says multiple countries were involved but India denies it. I have a pretty hard time believing the two suddenly just decided to work it out considering how rapid the escalation was happening yesterday somebody had to have intervened.
 
The terrorists that started this just saw a week of their people being killed. I don't see how the Pakistan government can control their actions across the LOC, and anything they do is going to be considered Pakistan's fault.

I have to wonder what we promised or threatened India and Pakistan with to achieve the ceasefire. Because things were escalating quickly before the announcement.
I want this to be over. But with new information that hope is slowly slipping again... what was first reported is getting torn appart now.

Not quite a ceasefire either but a "stoppage of fire". So... Will see. Until then EVERYONE enjoy the peace and hope it lasts. 🙏

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This is not a ceasefire. Repeat not a ceasefire. It's a stoppage of fire. Different.
 
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You got more info or insight why we went to defcon 3 at all? ( beside the Minister meeting? )
We went to DEFCON 3 before Pakistan convened their NCA due to the scope of the conflict escalating to ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drone attacks well outside the POK region. It was no longer just a border skirmish or a hunt for terrorists.
 
We went to DEFCON 3 before Pakistan convened their NCA due to the scope of the conflict escalating to ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drone attacks well outside the POK region. It was no longer just a border skirmish or a hunt for terrorists.
Just remind me, why we arent at defcon 3 then, over Ukr-Rus war.
 
Just remind me, why we arent at defcon 3 then, over Ukr-Rus war.
Because that conflict stabilized and Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine is not a member of NATO so the risk of a nuclear exchange dropped off significantly after the initial invasion.
 
Just remind me, why we arent at defcon 3 then, over Ukr-Rus war.
Russia/Ukraine has stalled on the escalation ladder (thank goodness). Additionally, unlike India/Pakistan, only one of the direct combatants are nuclear armed. So Russia/Ukraine is not quite as "risky" as India/Pakistan.
 
Russia/Ukraine has stalled on the escalation ladder (thank goodness). Additionally, unlike India/Pakistan, only one of the direct combatants are nuclear armed. So Russia/Ukraine is not quite as "risky" as India/Pakistan.
Right. Like all of a sudden there are missiles flying at each nation’s capital.

We’d be at DEFCON 3 if a Russian sub buzzed DC with a missile.
 
Because that conflict stabilized and Ukraine does not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine is not a member of NATO so the risk of a nuclear exchange dropped off significantly after the initial invasion.
Alright - although I think Ukr could launch dirty bombs into Rus as revenge, all the other tresholds have been breached. ( missiles,drones,gas,ballistic mis) just dizzy from all the intake of "grain and pinch of salts" reports. ( from Pak-Ind )
 
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EVERYONE NEED TO REMEMBER:

This is not a ceasefire. It is a "Stoppage of Fire". Both India & Pakistan are not rolling back their military, alert readiness, or mobilizations. No roll back from the borders either. Everything stays in set/place.

The talks for a actual ceasefire is in two long days.

A whole fuck ton can go wrong in the next 48 hours before talks begin for a ceasefire.

Also remember Pakistan asked for this and reached out to India. Pakistan is on the ropes and India knows it.

This is very far from over in my opinion sadly. My earlier hopes are quickly diminishing the more time and information comes.
 
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EVERYONE NEED TO REMEMBER.

This is not a ceasefire. It is a Stoppage of Fire. The talks for a actual ceasefire is in two long days.

A whole fuck ton can go wrong in the next 48 hours before talks begin. Remember Pakistan asked for this and reached out to India. Pakistan is on the ropes and India knows it.

This is very far from over in my opinion sadly.
Ceasefires (or stoppages, or whatever you call this) serve a purpose, which is usually to enable diplomacy. Since India appears to have gone along with this plan - either Modi believes he can come to some kind of agreement with Pakistan, or he's just playing for time as he mobilizes more assets. Hopefully the former, though the latter is not out of the question.

I generally agree with @DarkNoon's assessment. As for my private opinion regarding the appropriate DEFCON level - eh, let's call it 3.5.
 
I got another question, would it be noticeable on the Richter Scale if you detonated a 1-40 kilotons nuclear device? "Tzar bomba" 50 megaton had like 5-5.6 I think. Or does it depends if its underground explosion.
 
I got another question, would it be noticeable on the Richter Scale if you detonated a 1-40 kilotons nuclear device? "Tzar bomba" 50 megaton had like 5-5.6 I think. Or does it depends if its underground explosion.
Interesting question.
IMHO it depends, how the device is exploding.
Subsurface: definitely.
Surface: yes
Midair: maybe not
Oceanic: yes
The Test in ROK were noticeable, but they caused a massive Avalanche and a Mountain nearly to collapse, they tested subsurface.
There are lot of people around in India and Pakistan who have iPhones and so on. It's nearly impossible, to make a possible Impact secret, or to hide that in case. On the other Hand, a Pakistani launch might be shot down by India. Pak was definitely launching Fateh Missiles and no one knows, what Payload they had :/
 
The issue is the inherent reasons for conflict have not been resolved. All that's happened is Modi's right-wing audience has been angered and disappointed, the terrorists haven't been caught, and a precedent has been set. Any further terrorist attacks will be seen as an act of war.
Any successive government will face intense public pressure for similar if not more severe military action against Pakistan for future terrorist attacks (which are a certainty in Kashmir).

If this calms down and the ceasefire holds, it's only a matter of time.
 
I got another question, would it be noticeable on the Richter Scale if you detonated a 1-40 kilotons nuclear device? "Tzar bomba" 50 megaton had like 5-5.6 I think. Or does it depends if its underground explosion.
That depends on how you define "noticeable". If we're talking about detectability (using modern seismographs) then yes, easily - and at great distances. However, if you're instead asking whether an average human would feel an earthquake associated with a nuclear detonation of this magnitude, then nope, not really - unless you're fairly close to ground zero and it's an underground test (or a ground-level detonation).

Atmospheric detonations (which is the primary way in which nuclear weapons would be used in actual combat) don't produce significant earthquakes at all.
 
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