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- Apr 30, 2017
I'll be surprised if they respond back. Israel was able to totally neuter their air defenses and attack what they wanted. Does Iran really want to risk more of their infrastructure?
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- Jul 6, 2023
Oh no…here we go with 2 more months of “Iran attack is imminent” on Twitter amd speculation over information coming “unnamed sources”.
Never gets old.
Never gets old.
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- Sep 6, 2022
- LOCATION
- Fly over country
You know in contested situations like this it is ok to simply say not my circus, not my monkeys. Let me know if the monkeys escape. Then I’ll start following what’s going on closely.
- Joined
- Jan 30, 2014
Iran's Defense Minister: No fighter jets entered Iranian airspace. Production of offensive arms, such as missiles, remains unaffected. Even if #Israel had fired a single bullet into a desert in Iran, it would not have gone unanswered.
Video:
What bollocks is this? Comical Ali 2: Electric Boogaloo?
NuclearID
Guest
The recent escalation in Iranian threats over the past two days, including statements from Iran's Supreme Leader, could suggest that Iran's dilemma between two unfavorable options — either responding militarily to Israel despite significant risks or refraining from a response at the cost of further eroding its deterrence — has been resolved in favor of a military reaction although its precise timing and nature have yet to be finalized.
This decision may indicate three key assumptions guiding Iran's current strategy:
A. The absence of a response to the most severe attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War could, in the long term, endanger Iran more than a military reaction despite the substantial damage to its air defense systems and missile production capabilities.
Iranian leadership may be concerned that failing to respond would encourage Israel to carry out further future attacks against Iran, including its nuclear program.
B. It is still possible, in Iran's view, to restore its deterrent capability against Israel and to alter the rules of engagement through an action that will demonstrate its capacity to inflict harm using the significant ballistic capabilities it still retains.
C. Iran could believe that it may still influence Israel's anticipated response to any Iranian action — potentially deterring Israel from moving to a more extensive campaign targeting Iranian infrastructure, symbols of the regime, and nuclear sites — by responding differently, for example, launching attacks from outside Iranian territory, relying on its proxies, and targeting specific sites within Israel.
However, these underlying assumptions may be false and could reflect an overestimation of Iran's remaining capabilities (including those targeted by Israel) or an underestimation of Israel's intentions and capabilities. Such miscalculations could lead to further escalation between the two states.
US urging Israel to do half ass responses to Iran is only making the crisis worse and only going to make things that much worse when things do finally boil over and by then Iran may have nukes.
This decision may indicate three key assumptions guiding Iran's current strategy:
A. The absence of a response to the most severe attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War could, in the long term, endanger Iran more than a military reaction despite the substantial damage to its air defense systems and missile production capabilities.
Iranian leadership may be concerned that failing to respond would encourage Israel to carry out further future attacks against Iran, including its nuclear program.
B. It is still possible, in Iran's view, to restore its deterrent capability against Israel and to alter the rules of engagement through an action that will demonstrate its capacity to inflict harm using the significant ballistic capabilities it still retains.
C. Iran could believe that it may still influence Israel's anticipated response to any Iranian action — potentially deterring Israel from moving to a more extensive campaign targeting Iranian infrastructure, symbols of the regime, and nuclear sites — by responding differently, for example, launching attacks from outside Iranian territory, relying on its proxies, and targeting specific sites within Israel.
However, these underlying assumptions may be false and could reflect an overestimation of Iran's remaining capabilities (including those targeted by Israel) or an underestimation of Israel's intentions and capabilities. Such miscalculations could lead to further escalation between the two states.
US urging Israel to do half ass responses to Iran is only making the crisis worse and only going to make things that much worse when things do finally boil over and by then Iran may have nukes.
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- Sep 6, 2022
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- Fly over country
Found this today and it is worth remembering this little historical fact.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but Thanks Bill Clinton, the last moderate democrat to serve as president.
Bill Clinton On the Palestinians: “And the only time Yasser Arafat didn't tell me the truth was when he promised me he was gonna accept the peace deal that we had worked out, which would have given the Palestinians a state on 96% of the West Bank and 4% of Israel, and they got to choose where the 4% of Israel was. So they would have the effect of the same land of all the West Bank. They would have a capital in East Jerusalem. I can hardly talk about this…. And they would have equal access all day every day to the security towers that Israel maintained all through the West Bank up to the Golan Heights.All this was offered, including, I will say it again, a capital in East Jerusalem and 2 of the 4 quadrants of the old city of Jerusalem, confirmed by the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Barak, and his cabinet. And they said no.
I remember reading about this this 20+ years ago. And I didn’t know the word for this but there is an actual word for being disingenuous or deceptive in hiding your real motives or ultimate goal.
Taqiyya
The word "al-Taqiyya”literally means: "Concealing or disguising one’s beliefs, convictions, ideas, feelings, opinions, and/or strategies
After the camp David negotiations had ended and Arafat returned to the Palestinians. They were upset with him and he told them he was simply telling the unbeliever what was beneficial to Palestinians right now, taqiyya. That from the river to the sea would forever be their destiny.
I can’t believe I’m saying this but Thanks Bill Clinton, the last moderate democrat to serve as president.
Bill Clinton On the Palestinians: “And the only time Yasser Arafat didn't tell me the truth was when he promised me he was gonna accept the peace deal that we had worked out, which would have given the Palestinians a state on 96% of the West Bank and 4% of Israel, and they got to choose where the 4% of Israel was. So they would have the effect of the same land of all the West Bank. They would have a capital in East Jerusalem. I can hardly talk about this…. And they would have equal access all day every day to the security towers that Israel maintained all through the West Bank up to the Golan Heights.All this was offered, including, I will say it again, a capital in East Jerusalem and 2 of the 4 quadrants of the old city of Jerusalem, confirmed by the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Barak, and his cabinet. And they said no.
I remember reading about this this 20+ years ago. And I didn’t know the word for this but there is an actual word for being disingenuous or deceptive in hiding your real motives or ultimate goal.
Taqiyya
The word "al-Taqiyya”literally means: "Concealing or disguising one’s beliefs, convictions, ideas, feelings, opinions, and/or strategies
After the camp David negotiations had ended and Arafat returned to the Palestinians. They were upset with him and he told them he was simply telling the unbeliever what was beneficial to Palestinians right now, taqiyya. That from the river to the sea would forever be their destiny.
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- Apr 7, 2016
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- Indiana, US
No worries. You keep doing what you do.
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- Apr 7, 2016
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- Indiana, US
Interesting analysis. You think the US has that much control over whether or not this conflict continues to escalate?
NuclearID
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Yes in regards to how Israel responds. 100%.
NuclearID
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And it is these half ass response we are telling Israel to do that is only kicking the can down the road and only making things worse and will only make things that much worse when things do finally really boil over and by that time Iran may have nukes. Thanks Biden for capitulating to the terrorist for selfish political gains/election.
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- Apr 7, 2016
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- Indiana, US
US coddling of Israel predates the Biden administration by decades. There is a very long historical timeline that has gotten us to this point, with plenty of blame to go around for multiple US presidents.
NuclearID
Guest
Your not wrong. But I'm not wrong either. Biden holding Israel back from doing what needs and should be done is only going make things worse and already is. And when it finally boils over we are going to be kicking ourselves we didn't do anything about it.
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- Apr 7, 2016
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- Indiana, US
Never said you were. Just adding perspective.
We don’t even know if those B-52 have PAL’s installed. Despite being capable not all have control heads, all the time. It could be a condition to operate there.
(With the treaty ending IMO I expect every platform capable to be re-enabled)
NuclearID
Guest
It is becoming hard to monitor events in middle east right now with US election... all feeds even foreign are borked up with election
news slowing or hindering my data scraping and monitoring of said events in middle east.
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- Sep 7, 2022
And so continues the cycle of "de-escalation"#ALERT
Iran Tells Region ‘Strong and Complex’ Attack Coming on Israel:
@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er
NuclearID
Guest
Think I have stomach bug. Not reporting today and nursing myself. If Iran decides to commit suicide and attack Israel today I'll come back to report otherwise sorry it's a "me" day. 
Get well soon!Think I have stomach bug. Not reporting today and nursing myself. If Iran decides to commit suicide and attack Israel today I'll come back to report otherwise sorry it's a "me" day.
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2010
- defconwarningsystem
- DEFCONWSALERTS
- YOUTUBE
- DefconWarningSystem
Hope you feel better.Think I have stomach bug. Not reporting today and nursing myself. If Iran decides to commit suicide and attack Israel today I'll come back to report otherwise sorry it's a "me" day.
If anything comes up, be sure to let us know!Think I have stomach bug. Not reporting today and nursing myself. If Iran decides to commit suicide and attack Israel today I'll come back to report otherwise sorry it's a "me" day.
Hope you’re doing better soonest!.
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