Middle East Regional Wars | Discussions

[NuclearID]

Russia evacuating embassy personnel from Tel Aviv.

Misinformation.

The “Russia is evacuating embassy personnel from Tel Aviv” claim is coming from a single social post, then getting copy pasted across aggregators.

Origin, Earliest Identifiable Node I Can Actually Point To: X post by “Daily Iran News” claiming “Russian army is urgently evacuating the staff of the Russian embassy along with their families in Israel… third flight in the past 24 hours…” no aircraft tail number, flight number, airport confirmation, or official citation included in the claim as circulated.

What I Did NOT Find:
No corresponding statement that I can locate from official Russian channels such as Embassy in Israel / MFA / DSKC or a reputable wire confirming “evacuating embassy personnel from Tel Aviv” as an event on January 7, 2026. The claim, as currently circulating, is unsupported beyond that one social post and its downstream reposts/echos.

Reliability & Credibility on The Origin Account: “Daily Iran News” has previously been publicly disavowed as not representing Iran. Iran’s embassy in India said the account was fake / not theirs, per Indian media reporting.

 

[NuclearID]

Starting the discussion - looks like Israel and Iran aren’t done quite yet. Russia evacuating embassy personnel from Tel Aviv.

Even though that information still appears to be fake. You are not wrong on premise.

A war again between Israel and Iran is nearing. If I where a bettering man... I'd say much sooner than later and the trigger event will be a opening move on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

I've been covering it for months the slow burn back to hostile actions, it certainly didn't come out of nowhere, been a buildup of renewed tensions. Follow here:

Thread 'Israel Northern Front Security Deterioration | Lebanon'

Dec 31, 2025

️
Iran and Russia move to deepen energy cooperation & accelerate implementation of existing agreements. This is “sanctions proofing” and partner depth amid economic strain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006312748603297910

• NuclearID

Last year coverage/thread:

Thread 'Israel-Lebanon-Iran-US Escalation | Nov. 23rd-Dec. 31st/2025'

Aug 17, 2025

New thread. Other was almost 600 posts long.

• NuclearID
• Replies: 164
• Forum: Middle East

 

[Spyglass]

Even though that information still appears to be fake. You are not wrong on premise.

A war again between Israel and Iran is nearing. If I where a bettering man... I'd say much sooner than later and the trigger event will be a opening move on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
]

Thanks for fact checking, it looked pretty legit. Either way, I’ve known for some time now that Israel didn’t get what it wanted, when the US put the B-2’s into action. Israel wanted the whole thing gone. Israel is getting tired of US restraint, methinks…

Thing is, when this Iran war opens up, oil stops. Thank goodness for Venezuela… sigh.

 

[NuclearID]

Thing is, when this Iran war opens up, oil stops. Thank goodness for Venezuela… sigh.

Shockingly, the world will do just fine without Iranian oil. Even if every barrel of Iran’s supply went offline tomorrow, the price impact would be limited and short lived compared to what people imagine.

First, Iran doesn’t produce or export that much relative to global supply.

Second, Iran has been under sanctions for a long time, and markets have already adapted.

People act like Iranian oil is a cornerstone of the system, but it isn’t, whatsoever. If it disappeared tomorrow, the world would adjust and keep moving perfectly fine.

Don’t buy the fear mongering. Look at the numbers. Iranian oil is a small slice of global supply. In the grand scheme, Iran is not a major driver of global economics by itself.

The only realistic way Iran can seriously hit global economics is by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and the shipping lanes. That’s the real leverage point and ironically it affects everyone’s oil flows but Iran's.

 

[Spyglass]

The only realistic way Iran can seriously hit global economics is by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and the shipping lanes. That’s the real leverage point and ironically it affects everyone’s oil flows but Iran's.

You don’t think that would be the first thing they’d do during the opening stages of an actual war? Close the strait?

That’s why I’m saying thank goodness for Venezuela. The strait will get disrupted IMO. I’m essentially making that assumption. That leaves the U.S. to fill in the global gap with Venezuelan crude.

 

[NuclearID]

You don’t think that would be the first thing they’d do during the opening stages of an actual war? Close the strait?

That’s why I’m saying thank goodness for Venezuela. The strait will get disrupted IMO. I’m essentially making that assumption. That leaves the U.S. to fill in the global gap with Venezuelan crude.

Facing either collapse or total war/civil war? Yes. Iran could very well end up like Yemen targeting international shipping to make a point, but worse. One side becomes the internationally recognized government holding the seats, the other side turns into a true terrorist regime, hell bent on disruption and chaos. Again, much like Yemen was/is for years.


Don’t be fooled by the videos. Not everybody in Iran is against the regime. Just like these forums, just like the United States, just like everywhere else, it’s usually split close to half and half. It’s the margins, the slim ones, that decide outcomes, not overwhelming majorities.

 

[Yingyang]

Apparently australia is telling aussies to leave iran. Russia is getting their own from israel.

 

[teekay99]

Apparently australia is telling aussies to leave iran. Russia is getting their own from israel.

Yeppers. @NuclearID posted Australia's guidance here, including links to Australian government sources:

Post in thread 'Iran Revolting & Situation Rapidly Deteriorating | Jan 1st-10th | REPORTS'

Jan 7, 2026

Australia updated its Iran travel advice on Jan 7, 2026: “Do not travel to Iran. If you’re in Iran, you should leave as soon as possible.” This is a clear escalation signal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2008958329817534965

• NuclearID

 

[PeacePlease]

I'm not seeing a relevant Reports thread for Iran. I'm hearing about NOTAMs in Iran? Any confirmation?

 

[Publius]

Shockingly, the world will do just fine without Iranian oil. Even if every barrel of Iran’s supply went offline tomorrow, the price impact would be limited and short lived compared to what people imagine.

First, Iran doesn’t produce or export that much relative to global supply.

Second, Iran has been under sanctions for a long time, and markets have already adapted.

People act like Iranian oil is a cornerstone of the system, but it isn’t, whatsoever. If it disappeared tomorrow, the world would adjust and keep moving perfectly fine.

Don’t buy the fear mongering. Look at the numbers. Iranian oil is a small slice of global supply. In the grand scheme, Iran is not a major driver of global economics by itself.

The only realistic way Iran can seriously hit global economics is by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and the shipping lanes. That’s the real leverage point and ironically it affects everyone’s oil flows but Iran's.

Here is the irony regarding Iranian oil. That is where China is looking to to replace lost access to Venezuelan oil.

 

[NuclearID]

I'm not seeing a relevant Reports thread for Iran.

Thread 'Israel Northern Front Security Deterioration | Lebanon'

Dec 31, 2025

️
Iran and Russia move to deepen energy cooperation & accelerate implementation of existing agreements. This is “sanctions proofing” and partner depth amid economic strain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006312748603297910

• NuclearID
• Replies: 18
• Forum: Middle East

 

[william]

If the security situation in Iran leads to a total collapse let's hope western intelligence agencies have contingency plans to secure any refined nuclear material in Iran.

 

[NuclearID]

Well the time is here. Made subject into report and discussion thread.

 

[Yingyang]

I think Russia evacuating their citizens from israel is a concern.
A bit more serious response from Iran maybe the indicator should they be attacked.

 

[Publius]

I think Iran is going to crack down hard.

They are and it doesn’t seem to be going universally well for them.
There
Seems to be a lot more violent pushback from the protestors this time around.

 

[teekay99]

Should Israel and the US instigate further destabilization in Iran on the ground (assuming they have not yet started to do so at least clandestinely) ? Or does that risk galvenizing the Iranian public around the regime?

 

[Deleted account]

Should Israel and the US instigate further destabilization in Iran on the ground (assuming they have not yet started to do so at least clandestinely) ? Or does that risk galvenizing the Iranian public around the regime?

Definitely the latter imo.

We're in a situation where any cause Israel or the USA officially support becomes automatically less likely to succeed. Both countries have simply become that toxic - even to enemies of their enemies.

 

[teekay99]

Definitely the latter imo.

We're in a situation where any cause Israel or the USA officially support becomes automatically less likely to succeed. Both countries have simply become that toxic - even to enemies of their enemies.

That makes me wonder if the Iranian government is trying to claim revolts are Israeli and American driven. And if they have, and revolts continue to escalate, does that open any doors for Israeli and US destabilization efforts?

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I wonder why Iran hasn't clamped down yet. You'd think there'd be a lot more suppression.

 

[NuclearID]

I wonder why Iran hasn't clamped down yet.

They have. They cut cell, landline, and Internet. And reports power itself has been cut in a lot of cities. The regime is losing control.


Even with the cell, landline, Internet, and power/electricity cuts by the government are not stopping the scale and spread of these riots against the regime...

You'd think there'd be a lot more suppression.

There has been. Lots. Just to many people rioting and to little Iran regime enforcers/police to really make a difference.

Plus the police are being gunned down and beaten. Chief of police other day was gunned down in his car in Iran.