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New Middle East War Thread - Reports & Discussion Unless The Crisis Escalates

IRAQ NOTAM ALERT: Iraq has issued temporary airspace restrictions due to active military operations (Nov 7–11, daily 0500–1100 UTC).All overflights and aircraft landing at Baghdad (ORBI), Erbil (ORER), Sulaimaniyah (ORSJ), and Kirkuk (ORKK) are required to follow strict mandatory flight corridors and air traffic control radar vectors.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2118461384191078800
 
More confirmation. I'm wondering if Tucker Carlson's post might be true.

BREAKING: Iraq has just issued a NOTAM imposing temporary airspace restrictions due to expected combat operations from November 7 to 11, daily between 0500 and 1100 UTC.It is the same early morning window in which the war began on February 28.Aircraft overflying or landing at Baghdad, Erbil, Sulaimaniyah and Kirkuk must follow mandatory corridors and air traffic control vectors.US officials said Trump's strike window closes after early November, when one of the three aircraft carriers must return to its home port.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2118480381364117981
 
Channel 15: The option of launching an attack on Iran remains on the table. There is a possibility that Trump will decide to launch a limited attack that targets only nuclear
☢️
facilities.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2118495423182643219
 
RiffRaff said:
I've said this before and I'll say it again: The odds of a nuclear weapon being used in combat are 100% over a long enough timeline. As long as they exist, someone will eventually use one. The only questions are who, where, and when?
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So true. They have been used already in combat by the United States in Japan in 1945. So you're time line need not be that long.... :sneaky:

That aside, you have a valid and frightening point....
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/2118387267408671021

There are two windows for US strikes on Iran, and both are on the calendar.

Window 1 is this weekend. 8 and 9 November are the darkest nights of the month, and two US carriers are already in the region. Israel's new Knesset is sworn in on the 10th, with no majority yet. That leaves a caretaker government running coalition talks, and a strike before those talks settle could be more tempting for some than one after.
 
teekay99 said:
So true. They have been used already in combat by the United States in Japan in 1945. So you're time line need not be that long.... :sneaky:

That aside, you have a valid and frightening point....
Click to expand...
I'm starting the clock after August 1945 and referring to the next use, but yeah. We're setting aside money to travel to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August of 2045 for the 100th anniversary. Problem is, I don't think we'll make it that far before some other idiot pops one off somewhere.

Even more frightening is you can apply that statistical analysis to just about anything. Asteroid impact, gamma ray burst, CME...
 
willrod1989 said:
Exactly. The only two ways to "win" would be a ground invasion (which would be a pyrrhic victory at best) or the use of nuclear weapons. I'm reading into Trump's statements to finish Iran "quickly" as implying the use of nuclear weapons.
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Their seems to be a growing spllit in the WH and the midterm results mean that he either goes all in quickly or looks for a quick way out.

Given netanyahu's lame duck status also I think it very possible that the grown ups in the WH and military will advise vety strongly against it. He might get a way with another '3 day campaign', possibly heavily weighted towards targets that are in any way related to Iran's nuclear programme but I think that the chances of him using a nuke (which I think were lower anyay than the media would have you believe) are massively diminished.
 
RiffRaff said:
I'm starting the clock after August 1945 and referring to the next use, but yeah. We're setting aside money to travel to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August of 2045 for the 100th anniversary. Problem is, I don't think we'll make it that far before some other idiot pops one off somewhere.

Even more frightening is you can apply that statistical analysis to just about anything. Asteroid impact, gamma ray burst, CME...
Click to expand...
And they all share some things in common they have varying degrees of severity.
Tunguska event is estimated to be between 3 and 15 megatons explosion.
The SS-18 largest warhead is 5-700 kilotons the US the B-83 is 1.2 megaton
The 50 mton Russia was a test and never deployed. The Castle BrAvo was 15 megaton.

For perspective of what nature can throw at us.
 
Gaijin said:
Their seems to be a growing spllit in the WH and the midterm results mean that he either goes all in quickly or looks for a quick way out.

Given netanyahu's lame duck status also I think it very possible that the grown ups in the WH and military will advise vety strongly against it. He might get a way with another '3 day campaign', possibly heavily weighted towards targets that are in any way related to Iran's nuclear programme but I think that the chances of him using a nuke (which I think were lower anyay than the media would have you believe) are massively diminished.
Click to expand...
If you suspect Netanyahu will limit his actions to a lame duck PM you might be mistaken there. It’s not even 100% what the new gov will look like. Definitely modified but not necessarily likud out all together.
I pointed out Trump might go all in an air campaign which ever way the elections went.
That said nuclear? Seriously nuclear, do we have any definitive indication they’re leaning this way or is it just a WAG.

Irans oil terminals are still mostly undamaged. As far as I could tell this is one of the few significant infrastructure installations that haven’t been leveled. Obvious reason way. Boots on the ground are out aside from limited covert strikes that’s it.
My bet if anything would be the terminals but that carries a whole host of drawbacks as well. But it would separate the IRGC from any hope of close to immediate relief if and when sanctions are lifted.

I’m not defending any action because I don’t have all the data just as none of us do. Just looking at what’s left that would be a major blow to the ayatollahs and IRGC.

It’s not a nuke or boots on the ground.
 
Publius said:
If you suspect Netanyahu will limit his actions to a lame duck PM you might be mistaken there. It’s not even 100% what the new gov will look like. Definitely modified but not necessarily likud out all together.
I pointed out Trump might go all in an air campaign which ever way the elections went.
That said nuclear? Seriously nuclear, do we have any definitive indication they’re leaning this way or is it just a WAG.

Irans oil terminals are still mostly undamaged. As far as I could tell this is one of the few significant infrastructure installations that haven’t been leveled. Obvious reason way. Boots on the ground are out aside from limited covert strikes that’s it.
My bet if anything would be the terminals but that carries a whole host of drawbacks as well. But it would separate the IRGC from any hope of close to immediate relief if and when sanctions are lifted.

I’m not defending any action because I don’t have all the data just as none of us do. Just looking at what’s left that would be a major blow to the ayatollahs and IRGC.

It’s not a nuke or boots on the ground.
Click to expand...
I certainly agree with your final sentence.
 
This Iraq NOTAM slightly bumps the odds of a strike this weekend. "slightly" because it’s a daytime NOTAM, on partial airspace, in Iraq only.

All strikes on Iran landed at night, between 2-3am local time. The only one exception was the Feb 28 opener, timed to catch Khamenei based on intel about his whereabouts.

If more NOTAMs drop from Jordan, Syria or the Gulf in the next 12 hours, a weekend strike becomes very likely.

If not, my guess is that if an attack happens at all, it’s end of Nov / early Dec.

Signs it’s NOT happening this weekend:

- US embassy staff in Israel have not been ordered out
- Israel’s Home Front Command has not changed its guidelines
- No remote work or remote learning directives anywhere in the region

Watch those three. When they happen, it’s on.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2118578671871283621
 
Herzog is looking to make a decision this Sunday about who tries to form the next government. It is likely to be Eisenkot and, if he succeeds quickly (which he may do given that he has support from the Arab List and Netanyahu has lost the backing of the United Torah Judaism party) could mean, and I am only guessing here, that this weekend could be the last window of opportbuity for Trump.

How does your post on the 8992 kHz activity factor in to this and can you expand a bit on what those signals mean, either in context or in a broader sense?
 
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