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ABC reports U.S. intel assessment that China is modifying civilian passenger and cargo ferries and developing floating pier systems for potential use in a Taiwan contingency, supported by satellite imagery.
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PRC-ROC-US | 2025
- Thread starter Ben Dhyani
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ABC reports U.S. intel assessment that China is modifying civilian passenger and cargo ferries and developing floating pier systems for potential use in a Taiwan contingency, supported by satellite imagery.
NuclearID
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China's CAS Space launched Kinetica-1, placing Chutian 2A and 2B demo satellites into orbit from Jiuquan at 11:32 CST, mission success.
NuclearID
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China's Navy spokesperson update on new Aircraft Carrier The Fujian, based in Sanya, will continue trials to build readiness after its Nov 5 commissioning that Xi overseen.
NuclearID
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China’s commerce ministry says it is suspending the ban on approving exports of some dual use materials to the U.S., including gallium, germanium and antimony, effective today through Nov 27, 2026.
NuclearID
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Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told the Diet that the use of armed force against Taiwan could meet the “survival threatening situation” threshold under Japan’s security laws, which would allow collective self defense and mobilization of the Self Defense Forces. Asked today if she would retract the remarks, she said she has no intention to retract while declining to discuss specific scenarios.
NOTE: Prime ministerial statements about legal thresholds, not an automatic commitment to intervene. No Cabinet designation or SDF mobilization order at this time. Just rhetoric.
NuclearID
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Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian issues a direct warning to Japan over Taiwan.
In response to PM Sanae Takaichi’s comments that a Chinese use of force against Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response, Lin says any Japanese move to “wade into” or “meddle in” the cross-Strait situation would be treated as an act of aggression and would meet a firm Chinese response. He adds that Japan must “stop playing with fire on the Taiwan question,” warning that those who play with fire “will perish by it.”
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- Apr 1, 2025
Been following this on another forum for a few months:
www.scmp.com
www.twz.com
Images suggest China is building its first nuclear-powered carrier
War Zone report says hull of Type 004 being built in Dalian has what might be a reactor containment structure.
www.scmp.com
Strong Evidence That China’s Next Carrier Will Be Nuclear Emerges In Shipyard Photo
Nuclear propulsion for China's 'Type 004' aircraft carrier would represent a leap in naval capability and another step toward parity with the U.S. Nuclear propulsion would make the so-called Type 004 aircraft carrier China’s most capable so far.
www.twz.com
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South Korea, U.S. agree on trade, security deal, nuclear subs, Lee says
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Friday South Korea and U.S. had finalised a joint fact sheet on agreements on trade and security issues after his summit with U.S. President Donald Trump last month.
www.reuters.com
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung says Seoul and Washington have finalized a joint fact sheet on trade and security that includes U.S. backing for South Korea to build nuclear-powered submarines.
According to Lee’s televised briefing, the package does three main things:
Confirms plans for South Korea to acquire nuclear-powered submarines as a “strategic asset” for the alliance, with U.S. cooperation on fuel and technology still to be worked out.Launches new partnerships in shipbuilding, artificial intelligence and the civilian nuclear industry.Cuts U.S. import duties on South Korean products from 25% to 15%, tying the security upgrade to a wider economic deal.If implemented as described, South Korea would join a small group of states operating nuclear-powered subs, which would significantly extend the range, endurance and stealth of its navy and deepen its role in U.S. regional deterrence against North Korea and China. The move also raises familiar questions about non-proliferation norms and how far Washington is prepared to go in sharing sensitive naval nuclear technology beyond its AUKUS partners.
Reuters text via Moneycontrol:
https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/...l-nuclear-subs-lee-says-article-13674981.htmlReuters on Trump’s earlier approval for a South Korean nuclear-powered submarine:
Trump says South Korea has approval to build nuclear-powered submarineReuters on Seoul seeking U.S. fuel for a domestically built nuclear-powered submarine:
South Korea seeks US fuel for domestically built nuclear-powered submarine, official saysKorea Herald on the signed joint fact sheet and nuclear-sub clause:
[Breaking] S. Korea, US sign joint fact sheet on trade, securityKorea Times overview of reprocessing, enrichment and nuclear-submarine cooperation:
Korea wins US support to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, enrich uranium - The Korea Times---
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China & Taiwan tensions | New US Arms Sale: 
The United States has approved a USD$330 million military sale of aircraft parts and related equipment to Taiwan, the first such package since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House. The deal, notified by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, covers non-standard spare and repair parts and support for Taiwan’s F-16s, C-130s, and Indigenous Defense Fighter aircraft. Taipei says the sale will help maintain fighter readiness and strengthen its ability to respond to Chinese “gray-zone” incursions, while Beijing has lodged a formal protest, accusing Washington of “gravely infringing” on China’s sovereignty and warning of “necessary measures” in response.
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China Begins Construction of Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier
Satellite images show that China has begun construction of its fourth nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
militarnyi.com
China Begins Construction of Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier
China has begun construction of its fourth nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.Satellite images show that the new aircraft carrier, known as Type 004, is gradually taking shape at a shipyard in Dalian, Liaoning Province.
The photos show elements that look like a reactor containment vessel, a key sign of a nuclear facility. The design resembles solutions used on US nuclear aircraft carriers, although it is possible that this is a test ship or module.
At the same time, there are reports that Beijing is probably continuing to work on another aircraft carrier with a traditional engine.
NuclearID
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China’s Type 076 “Sichuan” Amphibious Assault Ship Sea Trials:China’s Type 076 amphibious assault ship Sichuan (51) has completed its first builders’ sea trials off Shanghai. Open reporting describes the ship at roughly 40,000+ tons, with a full length flight deck and electromagnetic catapult intended to launch fixed wing unmanned aircraft in addition to helicopters.
The Type 076 sits alongside the Fujian carrier in a wider naval expansion aimed at long range expeditionary and sea control operations, including any potential Taiwan or Western Pacific contingencies. The exact air wing mix and operational concepts are still emerging.
NuclearID
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Japan’s embassy in China has warned Japanese citizens to heighten safety precautions and avoid crowded places, citing “the situation” in bilateral ties.
The advisory comes amid a growing dispute between Tokyo and Beijing over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent comments on a possible Taiwan contingency and Japan’s response options.
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Analysis from the RoRo movements over the summer:
www.reuters.com
See my post back from August:
My indication an invasion is being prepared: All these RoRos and civilian cargo ships turn off their AIS.
So if you are a Taiwan watcher, I would look for that.
If the PRC spoofs their location, I don't know what you can do about that to determine what is real.
Shadow navy: How China's civilian fleet could be a potent weapon in a Taiwan invasion
A Reuters visual investigation of China's annual naval exercises off the Chinese coast opposite Taiwan shows how Beijing's "shadow navy" of civilian ships is training to help in a mass landing of troops and materiel on the island.
www.reuters.com
See my post back from August:
Some odd things being picked up in the Western Pacific. May be nothing, may be training, or may be the beginnings of something.
This was yesterday:
Today:
Usually these ships are in the Bo Hai sea operating as car ferries. What's important is that some of these ferries have had their stern ramps modified for amphibious operations.
China is Preparing Merchant Ro-Ro Ferries for Amphibious Warfare
I put these ships into MarineTraffic and here's the most recent locations:
1. Bo Hai Jing Zhu (Departed Yantai 20 minutes...
This was yesterday:
Today:
Usually these ships are in the Bo Hai sea operating as car ferries. What's important is that some of these ferries have had their stern ramps modified for amphibious operations.
China is Preparing Merchant Ro-Ro Ferries for Amphibious Warfare
I put these ships into MarineTraffic and here's the most recent locations:
1. Bo Hai Jing Zhu (Departed Yantai 20 minutes...
My indication an invasion is being prepared: All these RoRos and civilian cargo ships turn off their AIS.
So if you are a Taiwan watcher, I would look for that.
If the PRC spoofs their location, I don't know what you can do about that to determine what is real.
NuclearID
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New satellite and AIS work shows Chinese civilian roll onroll off ferries and deck cargo ships peeling off commercial routes, sailing to Guangdong, then beaching on a training shoreline to off load vehicles directly onto sand.
Reuters tracked at least 12 such vessels in August practicing these beach landings near a PLA staging area, using their own ramps to deliver vehicles without any port infrastructure.
Analysts frame this as a maturing civil military “shadow fleet”. Civilian hulls and crews providing surge amphibious lift that is cheaper than a purely military landing force and harder to track in peacetime.
Bottom line is open sources now shows Beijing rehearsing large scale landing timelines with civilian tonnage in real exercises, not just on paper.
NOTE:
Based on Reuters visual investigation and additional open source analysis. Activity is confirmed exercise behavior, not evidence of an imminent attack.
@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry
NuclearID
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US & China Maritime Security Talks in Hawaii:US Indo Pacific Command says US and Chinese military officials met in Honolulu from 18th to 20th November for the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) Working Group and Plenary, a semi annual operator level forum aimed at reducing the risk of unsafe or unprofessional encounters at sea and in the air.
According to the Chinese Navy readout, the sides held “frank and constructive” exchanges on current maritime and air security, reviewed “typical cases” of recent encounters, and discussed how front line units can interact more safely and professionally.
Beijing used the statement to criticise US freedom of navigation and overflight operations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea as “infringement and provocation,” reiterating that it “resolutely opposes” those activities.
Both governments say a follow up MMCA working group meeting is planned for 2026, indicating an intent to keep this safety channel open even as operational friction continues in the same areas.
NuclearID
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President Trump on Monday spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the two leaders discussed trade, the war in Ukraine and plans for Trump to visit Beijing next spring.
The call came roughly a month after Trump and Xi met in South Korea and reached agreements around tariffs, soybean purchases from U.S. farmers and curbing the flow of chemicals used in fentanyl.
NuclearID
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South Korean President Lee Jae-myung says inter Korean ties are now in a “very dangerous situation” where accidental clashes could break out “at any time,” citing:
North Korea refusing all hotline calls and “cutting all lines of connection”.New triple layers of barbed wire along the Military Demarcation Line, something not seen since shortly after the Korean War.More than 10 North Korean soldier incursions across the MDL this year, some already triggering ROK warning shots.
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CNO Caudle Tells Sailors in Guam to Be Ready for Conflict Now - USNI News
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle called on the U.S. Navy to heighten its readiness capabilities and be able to fully surge and respond at any moment during an all hands call to Guam-based personnel last week. “You have to be ready, day one. Now you hear a lot about 2027 – I want you...
news.usni.org
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President Erdogan says Turkey and South Korea are advancing key defense projects, calling the Altay main battle tank one of the most successful examples of their partnership and stating that Ankara aims to further diversify and expand joint defense programs.
In a joint press appearance with President Lee, both sides described themselves as strategic partners in the defense sector, stressing joint production, technology cooperation, and training exchanges as they work to emerge as leading defense industry powers and link defense ties to wider nuclear energy and industrial cooperation.
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Taipei District Prosecutors have indicted two employees and an outside contractor of state funded broadcaster Radio Taiwan International over a September cyber attack on the station’s official website.
According to the indictment, the engineer, his manager, and a systems maintenance contractor allegedly conspired from June onward, sharing a highest level admin account to alter RTI’s site, delete logs, and disrupt service.
On multiple dates in August and September, the homepage was reportedly altered to display the People’s Republic of China flag and other political imagery, with prosecutors arguing the acts were intended to provoke cross strait tensions and harm public confidence in a broadcaster designated as key national infrastructure.
Prosecutors say they are seeking custodial sentences of up to around three years, citing both the disruption to operations and the broader security implications of tampering with a Level A critical infrastructure outlet.
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