PRC-ROC-US | 2025

[NuclearID]

U.S. Congressional Research Service says official Chinese government involvement in nuclear and missile transfers has largely stopped, but China based companies and individuals still export proliferation relevant goods, especially to Iran and North Korea, and provide illicit finance and other support.

The report notes a steady pattern of U.S. sanctions since 2022 on China based entities for:
Supplying “missile applicable items” to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.
Procuring components for Iran’s ballistic missile programs and other controlled weapons technology.
Providing equipment and services that U.S. officials link to WMD programs in Iran and North Korea, including proliferation financing.

CRS frames the core concern as a persistent ecosystem of semi deniable Chinese firms and intermediaries, operating despite formal nonproliferation commitments and repeated U.S. efforts to tighten export controls and sanctions enforcement.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993299968572924085

 

[NuclearID]

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has proposed a US$40 billion (NT$1.25 trillion) special defense budget spread over 2026 to 2033, framed as a long term plan to strengthen deterrence against China.

THE PACKAGE WOULD:
Fund a multilayered “T Dome” air and missile defense network (low, medium, high altitude).
Expand investment in AI enabled sensing, drones, and precision missiles.
Lift total defense outlays to about 3.3% of GDP in 2026, with a stated target of 5% of GDP by 2030.

Lai first outlined the plan in a Washington Post op-ed, calling it a historic supplement meant to raise the cost and uncertainty of any attack, and repeated the proposal in Taipei.

United States top envoy in Taipei calls it a “major step toward maintaining peace and stability” by strengthening deterrence.

China condemns the move as wasteful and provocative, accusing Taipei of yielding to foreign pressure.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993663272982114737

 

[Sentry]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993824653769597177

 

[NuclearID]

A South Korean think tank assessment, citing open-source data, estimates that North Korea may already possess around 150 nuclear warheads, with potential growth to roughly 400 by 2040 if current trends in fissile material production and missile development continue.

The report links this projection to continued plutonium and HEU output at Yongbyon, parallel ICBM and SLBM programs, and possible future technical support from Russia that could accelerate naval nuclear and delivery system improvements.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993988018160501064

 

[NuclearID]

New satellite analysis reported by NK Pro finds that North Korea has refortified about 74% of its side of the DMZ over the last five months, under its explicitly anti South Korea policy line.

Imagery shows expanded trenches, paths, obstacles, fences and tank traps carved into forests along the roughly 210 km demarcation line, much of it completed since mid 2025. The build-up effectively reverses earlier steps to ease tensions and aligns with Seoul’s recent warnings that the peninsula is in a “very dangerous” state where incidents could occur at any time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993989166489547142

 

[NuclearID]

China’s State Council Information Office has released a new white paper, “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era,” outlining Beijing’s official positions on nuclear policy and emerging domain security.

KEY NUCLEAR POINTS:
Reaffirms a no first use commitment “under any circumstances” and calls on all nuclear-armed states to adopt NFU and mutual NFU arrangements.
Restates security assurances to non-nuclear weapon states and nuclear weapon free zones.
Claims China has conducted the fewest nuclear tests among the NPT nuclear weapon states and has honored a voluntary moratorium since signing the CTBT.

The document presents China as a “constructive” actor in arms control while its strategic forces are expanding and modernizing, which remains a central point of debate among outside analysts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993990266378674641

 

[NuclearID]

A recent Newsweek analysis on global risks argues that China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and rapid modernization are becoming an important factor in Russia’s strategic planning, adding a third leg to what used to be a largely U.S. & Russia nuclear equation.

Drawing on open source estimates that put China’s stockpile at roughly 600 warheads and growing, analysts note Beijing’s new silo fields, more capable ICBMs, improved SSBNs, and a visible triad posture. The piece suggests that as China’s forces mature, Moscow must increasingly account for both NATO and China when thinking about nuclear signaling or coercion in Eurasia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993992304038703323

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

China’s State Council Information Office has released a new white paper, “China’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the New Era,” outlining Beijing’s official positions on nuclear policy and emerging domain security.

KEY NUCLEAR POINTS:
Reaffirms a no first use commitment “under any circumstances” and calls on all nuclear-armed states to adopt NFU and mutual NFU arrangements.
Restates security assurances to non-nuclear weapon states and nuclear weapon free zones.
Claims China has conducted the fewest nuclear tests among the NPT nuclear weapon states and has honored a voluntary moratorium since signing the CTBT.

The document presents China as a “constructive” actor in arms control while its strategic forces are expanding and modernizing, which remains a central point of debate among outside analysts.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993990266378674641

I read part of it. It's so full of feldercarb.

China's great, blah blah
China believes in arms control, blah blah
China no first use, blah blah.

I've never read so many lies in so few paragraphs since I read the last paper from North Korea.

 

[NuclearID]

Chinese short and medium range ballistic missiles now cover all of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

US estimates cited in the article point to several hundred SRBM and MRBM launchers, with many more missiles, including anti ship and hypersonic glide variants capable of striking airbases, ports and carrier groups inside the first island chain.

Chinese officials dismiss the US report as a “China threat” narrative, but the range bands highlight that front line US allies in Northeast and Southeast Asia sit fully inside China’s conventional missile reach.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994731330215584067

 

[NuclearID]

Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs has approved Taipower’s condition report on the Kuosheng and Maanshan nuclear power plants, concluding both are “feasible for reoperation.” The older Chinshan plant is assessed as not restartable due to age and dismantled equipment. Taipower is expected to submit formal restart plans to the Nuclear Safety Commission by March 2026, with independent safety inspections and seismic checks built into the process.

The move follows this year’s law change allowing up to 60 year operating lifespans and would restore several gigawatts of baseload capacity, reducing dependence on imported LNG and coal if restarts proceed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994789955457958225

 

[NuclearID]

Chinese researchers from Zhejiang University and the Beijing Institute of Technology have published a peer reviewed study on how to jam SpaceX’s Starlink network over an area the size of Taiwan in a potential cross strait conflict.

Using Starlink orbital data, the team modeled a large scale electronic warfare operation and concluded that fully disrupting service across roughly 36,000 km² would require a distributed “cloud” of at least 935 airborne jammers, and possibly up to about 2,000 small platforms when lower power systems are used.

The concept relies on drones, balloons, or aircraft carrying synchronized EW payloads to form an overlapping electromagnetic barrier, rather than a few powerful ground stations, reflecting lessons drawn from Starlink’s performance in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994920820267737109

 

[NuclearID]

According to export documents cited by Naval News, the United States has approved the first foreign sale of the AIM-260A Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) to Australia.

The deal would make the Royal Australian Air Force the first foreign operator, integrating JATM on F/A-18F Super Hornet and F-35A Lightning II fleets.

Documents reportedly outline 450 AIM-260A missiles plus test and guided test vehicles, with an estimated total package value of around 2.6 to 3.1 billion USD and initial deliveries projected for the third quarter of 2033.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1994955627664150533

 

[NuclearID]

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) says satellite imagery shows China building large scale military infrastructure at five sites along its east coast facing Taiwan, including:
A new naval base in Shanghai’s Pudong New Area with underground fuel tanks, rail links and more than 10 amphibious warships (including a Type 075) observed in May.
Expanded naval facilities at Yueqing Bay in Zhejiang.
Upgraded airfields at Fuzhou Changle, the new Xiamen Xiangan airport on Dadeng Island (3.7 km from Kinmen), and a helicopter base in Zhangpu County.

The report, citing US Defense Department data, also notes that the PLA Rocket Force missile stockpile has grown to roughly 3,500 nuclear and conventional missiles in four years, with new coastal bases and launch drills oriented toward Taiwan.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry

https://twitter.com/x/status/1995101852090646566

 

[RiffRaff]

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) says satellite imagery shows China building large scale military infrastructure at five sites along its east coast facing Taiwan, including:
A new naval base in Shanghai’s Pudong New Area with underground fuel tanks, rail links and more than 10 amphibious warships (including a Type 075) observed in May.
Expanded naval facilities at Yueqing Bay in Zhejiang.
Upgraded airfields at Fuzhou Changle, the new Xiamen Xiangan airport on Dadeng Island (3.7 km from Kinmen), and a helicopter base in Zhangpu County.

The report, citing US Defense Department data, also notes that the PLA Rocket Force missile stockpile has grown to roughly 3,500 nuclear and conventional missiles in four years, with new coastal bases and launch drills oriented toward Taiwan.

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry

https://twitter.com/x/status/1995101852090646566

They've engaged in this activity before, haven't they?

 

[NuclearID]

They've engaged in this activity before, haven't they?

Build up has been going on for years, but the MAC report is pointing to how far it has now gone.

Earlier satellite work and media pieces already flagged places like Yueqing Bay, Xiamen Xiangan and Fuzhou Changle. But now MAC’s latest “Mainland China Situation Quarterly” adds updated imagery and a bigger picture... Much.

A new amphibious focused naval base in Shanghai’s Pudong area with underground fuel and rail links.
An expanded naval pier at Yueqing Bay.
Enlarged airports and a new helicopter base in Fujian that sit right across from Kinmen and Penghu.

Also extra highlighting the locations which is so obviously suited for a Taiwan scenario, whether that is blockade, mass missile strikes, or moving forces across the Strait.

So it is not that China suddenly started this last week, it is that we now have official confirmation and imagery of how big the coastal infrastructure has become.


So I think it is time to reassess some of the assumptions about how soon China is structurally ready to take on Taiwan. Based on these new reports about coastal bases and missile growth, my own view is that the plausible readiness window has shifted earlier rather than later...

 

[Irag8er]

Even with infrastructure improvements, invading, China could face catastrophic risks: 10,000+ PLA casualties in the first week (CSIS war games), economic turmoil from sanctions, and escalation with U.S./Japan (e.g., Japan's missile deployments to Yonaguni Island, 110km from Taiwan). PRC rhetoric (e.g., threats to Japan in November 2025) aims at deterrence, not declaration. Taiwan's defenses—drones, mines, and asymmetric warfare—further complicate landings. Ultimately, infrastructure enables attempt, not assured victory; deterrence relies on allies finding and emphasising
these gaps.

Researching, it still looks to me that an invasion is 2-5 years away.
Then again what we DON"T know could close that gap significantly .

 

[Irag8er]

As an aside......a WAY WAY aside :

The map includes:- PLA missile trajectories toward Japan's interior- Targets in Honshu, Kyushu, and Hokkaido—including nuclear power plants- Launch sites inside China and the Korean Peninsula- Submarine strike zones encircling Japan

https://twitter.com/x/status/1995100214437487036

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

economic turmoil from sanctions

Russia has shown that the world really isn't interested in punitive sanctions. More so when it comes to China where a lot of countries have come to rely on cheap labour.

 

[Irag8er]

Russia has shown that the world really isn't interested in punitive sanctions. More so when it comes to China where a lot of countries have come to rely on cheap labour.

Asa full scale invasion drew closer, couldn't other countries such as India, Viet Nam etc. be prodded/incentivized to flood the world markets replacing cheap consumables ? It would take several years, but I could help sanctions to "work"

 

[NuclearID]

In all reality... China will not need nor likely start with a classic Normandy style invasion.

Mass just enough naval and air power to enforce a tight blockade, Taiwan will be cut off from critical imports and international support.

Over time, that kind of pressure will force political capitulation. At that point, you are not talking about storming defended beaches, you are talking about moving in an occupation force to secure a regime that has already been compelled to yield.

So in my humble opinion we may not even see that big of a buildup before China makes its move on Taiwan. As realistically they will not be massing an invasion force because it won't be an invasion. At least not the one everyone envisions.