PRC-ROC-US | 2025

[DEFCON Warning System]

Asa full scale invasion drew closer, couldn't other countries such as India, Viet Nam etc. be prodded/incentivized to flood the world markets replacing cheap consumables ? It would take several years, but I could help sanctions to "work"

That wouldn't really help Taiwan since it would take years to do that. And I think India and Vietnam already want to replace China, don't they?

Mass just enough naval and air power to enforce a tight blockade, Taiwan will be cut off from critical imports and international support.

Unless someone like the US wants to run the blockage. What is China going to do? Shoot?

 

[NuclearID]

Russia has shown that the world really isn't interested in punitive sanctions. More so when it comes to China where a lot of countries have come to rely on cheap labour.

Trade between China and the United States, and much of the wider West, is already down sharply, historically low, and trending even lower faster. China has already accepted losing a big chunk of Western buyers and is pivoting hard into markets in Africa, South America, the Middle East, and other parts of Asia instead. Just for this exact reason. Been happening for years now.

Sanctions coming from the West alone are not going to be the decisive pressure point on China. Given the current public statistics and trade with the West & China, just not gonna work. Which only makes broad “punitive sanctions” even less credible of a tool more than ever.

 

[NuclearID]

Unless someone like the US wants to run the blockage. What is China going to do? Shoot?

Yes. Your guess is as good as mine, but I’d bet my entire savings that if “it” ever does happen, it will not look like a Normandy style invasion. It will be a blockade when China finally makes its move on Taiwan.

Of course they will still need a significant force, but they will not need an absurdly large one that sets off every alarm for an immediate amphibious assault. They just need enough naval and air power to enforce the blockade and enough ground forces to occupy the island once it capitulates, after of course... starvation and the wider shortages created by being cut off.

Which also means China could hide its begining moves on Taiwan easier. Or make it look like a regular drill which they routinely do.

 

[HoldFast]

I don't know how viable an air and sea blockade (an act of war itself) would be. Taiwan has A2AD weapons now too. If a blockade is enacted, I image Taiwan would start taking out ships an aircraft and not just sit idly by getting starved.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

It will be a blockade when China finally makes its move on Taiwan.

I think that is certainly a more viable option for China. The sanctions on China would certainly be less.

I don't know how viable an air and sea blockade (an act of war itself) would be. Taiwan has A2AD weapons now too. If a blockade is enacted, I image Taiwan would start taking out ships an aircraft and not just sit idly by getting starved.

Depends on how China positions the fleet.

China's best option is an economic boycott. Any country that does business with Taiwan could not do business with China.

 

[NuclearID]

I don't know how viable an air and sea blockade (an act of war itself) would be. Taiwan has A2AD weapons now too. If a blockade is enacted, I image Taiwan would start taking out ships an aircraft and not just sit idly by getting starved.

Never said there would not be a missile salvo to take out those threats to a blockade.

It is no secret China has been building up its conventional missile forces, and the most likely first step would be using them to hit key targets in Taiwan that threaten a blockade.

They do not need to land an invasion force on day one, would be really dumb when they can take the easy way.

They just need to degrade Taiwan’s ability to target Chinese ships and aircraft so the blockade can run relatively smoothly without being contested as much.

So again. Opening move will definitely have some shooting going on. But it won't be a full fledged invasion like Normandy. No way, no how. Opening slavo to cripple Taiwan, so a blockade can run relatively smoothly. Once starvation is reached in Taiwan, then capitulates happens, that's when China moves in it's occupation force relatively uncontested.

 

[HoldFast]

Both sides have things hidden underground, it is going to be protracted for sure. I also don't know what the red lines would be in any of this, but I bet PRC strikes on anything on the main island of Taiwan would be grounds for US involvement.

I see the escalation going up and I don't think the PRC could keep it contained to just a blockade. I also don't think a land invasion is viable for them with the lift capacity they have. So a bit of a stalemate and probably why they haven't initiated reunifications already.

Lift estimates are here: China & Taiwan Update, November 25, 2025

 

[NuclearID]

but I bet PRC strikes on anything on the main island of Taiwan would be grounds for US involvement.

Let’s hope China has that mindset. I am not willing to bet on it though, not even a penny. lol...

I am not saying the US would not step in, I am saying China may not be convinced that we will. And I do not think their leadership currently believes Washington will intervene decisively either at this point in time.

This is the one time where ambiguity is really bad.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I am saying China may not be convinced that we will.

I wouldn't be. Not after Ukraine.

 

[RiffRaff]

PizzInt site listing China/Taiwan and US/Venezuela situations as "Critical." For what that's worth.

 

[HoldFast]

Interesting! I wonder what their "immediate" critical indicators are.

Ae we missing something in the news?

 

[NuclearID]

China has launched the Shijian-28 satellite from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Hainan.

According to Xinhua and China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp, a modified Long March-7 rocket lifted off at 8:20 p.m. Beijing time on 30 November 2025 and placed the satellite into its preset orbit, marking the 611th mission of the Long March launch family and China’s 77th orbital launch of 2025.

Officials have not disclosed Shijian-28’s specific mission, stating only that it was built by the China Academy of Space Technology and launched on a Long March-7A variant designed to carry roughly 7 ton payloads to geosynchronous transfer orbit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1995490118904250725

 

[NuclearID]

Taiwan’s Economics Minister Kung Ming-hsin has stated that restarting decommissioned reactors such as the Maanshan nuclear plant will require lengthy safety reviews by the Nuclear Safety Commission, pushing back expectations that units could return to the grid as early as 2027. He indicated that any restart would depend on detailed inspections that could take from 18 months to several years, with 2028 treated as a possible target rather than a fixed date.

Separately, the Ministry of Economic Affairs has approved Taipower’s report on the condition of the Kuosheng and Maanshan plants, concluding that both are technically “feasible for reoperation,” and has instructed the utility to submit formal restart plans by March 2026 under Taiwan’s revised reactor licensing law.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1996158247787516367

 

[NuclearID]

Australia’s Army has conducted the first live firing of the AS9 Huntsman 155 mm self propelled howitzer on Australian soil, marking a major artillery milestone in the Protected Mobile Fires program.

According to Defence, soldiers from the School of Artillery and 4th Regiment, Royal Australian Artillery fired the AS9 at Puckapunyal, Victoria, on 1 December as part of intensive operator training ahead of entry into service. The five-person crewed system is designed to fire, then rapidly redeploy under armour, with the AS10 armoured ammunition resupply vehicle able to support two howitzers.

Canberra plans to acquire 30 AS9 Huntsman howitzers and 15 AS10 resupply vehicles over the next two years through industry partner Hanwha Defence Australia, providing a significant increase in protected, long range fire support for the Australian Army.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1996188119339606224

 

[NuclearID]

China’s Zhuque-3 Y1 reusable carrier rocket, developed by private firm LandSpace, conducted its maiden launch on Wednesday from the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Zone in northwest China. State agency Xinhua reports that the second stage entered its designated orbit, but recovery of the first stage booster failed.

According to LandSpace, quoted by regional media, an “abnormal combustion” occurred during descent in the first-stage recovery verification test, preventing the booster from touching down on the designated landing pad. The company says the cause of the anomaly is under investigation and that the flight still provided engineering data for future reusable rocket trials.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1996215912261701852

 

[NuclearID]

China Daily reports that private aerospace firm Lingkong Tianxing has unveiled the YKJ 1000 hypersonic missile system, combining a booster and hypersonic glide vehicle with a stated top speed of about Mach 7 and a range of roughly 1,300 km. Company material and Chinese media say the baseline version has entered mass production and that an “intelligent” variant with AI enabled decision making and swarm coordination is under development.

A publicity officer told China Daily that online claims of a 700,000 yuan per round manufacturing cost are “not true,” but confirmed that the design uses standard industrial and commercial components to lower costs compared with traditional bespoke aerospace parts. Vietnamese and regional outlets, citing South China Morning Post, continue to report an estimated price near that level, underscoring that the exact unit cost remains unconfirmed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1996326882552221943

 

[NuclearID]

Indo-Pacific Defense Forum reports that Australia and the Philippines are moving to deepen their defense relationship through new military infrastructure projects on Philippine territory and expanded cyber cooperation. Officials quoted in the article say the two countries expect to formalize a defense agreement over the next year that will build on existing exercises and access arrangements and is explicitly framed as support for a stable and secure Indo-Pacific.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1996718913766256883

 

[NuclearID]

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has confirmed a NT$12.6 billion (≈ USD 402 million) purchase of 36 domestically developed Rui Yuan II long-range surveillance drones, to be procured between 2026 and 2029.

According to legislative briefings and Taiwanese media, the Rui Yuan II fleet is intended to replace part of Taiwan’s manned ISR aircraft, extend maritime surveillance range, and cut operating costs. Some payloads reported: multispectral optics, maritime search radar, ISAR, ELINT, and AIS for ship tracking.

The procurement is funded via a special defense budget that also covers other long-range strike, air defense, and unmanned systems, and sits inside Taipei’s wider shift toward massed drones and asymmetric ISR against PLA naval activity.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1996940599828619575

 

[NuclearID]

China’s Ministry of National Defense confirms that Chinese and Russian forces held their third joint anti missile exercise on Russian territory in early December 2025.

Official line: the drill is “not targeted at any third party” and is **“unrelated to the current international and regional situation.”

Practical effect:
Further normalizes regular CN & RU missile defense cooperation, after earlier “no limits” pledges.
Tests joint procedures for detecting and intercepting incoming missiles on Russian territory.
Signals that both sides are aligning more closely on strategic defense, while publicly framing it as routine and defensive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1997632853224333737

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LINK TO CONTINUATION OF THREAD BELOW.

Thread 'Taiwan Crisis | US-Japan-China-Australia | Nov. 11th—Dec. 31st/2025'

Nov 11, 2025

Tokyo lodges protest after the Chinese consul general in Osaka posted, then deleted, a threatening message targeting Japan’s PM over Taiwan remarks. Japan calls the post “extremely inappropriate.”

NOTE: Confirmed by Japan govt. spokesperson.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1988325136965996556

• NuclearID
• Replies: 119
• Forum: Asia