Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness

[ArmyATC]

It does appear that NATO and Russia are in a holding pattern. I think both would like June 22nd to hurry up and arrive, without incident. At that point, if no one in Ukraine on either side starts an offensive, I would expect sanctions to be lifted by the EU.

The obligatory saber rattling will continue, of course. The wild card is the factions in Ukraine. It won't matter who is backing who or what country they are from if a major offensive is announced. Then all bets are off.

Merkel has already said that she thinks sanctions should stay until Minsk is fully applied. So even if the EU lifts their sanctions, they'll just be reapplied on a national level by Germany and most other countries that matter. All Russia will gain is trade with a few southern European nations and possibly Hungary, countries that need Russia far more than Russia needs them.

So the only thing Russia is really after is to sow disagreements and splits within the EU.

I just can't read the Russians. I know what you say rings true, and this willl probobly cause a decades-long rift in the relationship. But I can't help but believe if this starts up again, it will be made to appear as Ukraine doing it. Not that Russia won't have a big hand in it, or maybe even the US, but I think both would rather go back to a normalization.

But you are probably right. Putin wont quit until he gets the coastal Oblasts, and Ukraine won't budge on it. So unless that issue gets worked out. No true lasting form of relative peace.

Kerry is distancing himself from Poro. rRussia can wait out Poro. So the only option left is for it to appear Ukraine unilaterally violates Minsk II. Which, by the way, is exactly what Kerry and Lavrov said he has already done by threatening to take Donbass Airport, among other requirements he hasn't met.

So the only way forward for Ukraine in its current form, is violating Minsk and dragging everyone down with them.

“I urge him [Poroshenko], as I urge the Russians today. Anybody who has any control over anybody needs to take every step possible, to fully implement Minsk and clearly this means preventing any breaches of activity in regards to the ceasefire,” Kerry added.

http://rt.com/news/257953-lavrov-kerry-sochi-talks/

 

[ArmyATC]

So this OSCE Story about catching Russian soldiers in uniform didn't get much legs to it. Anyone else finding anything, apparently only the NYT Europe tried to float this. Should be a much bigger story on the heels of the 'POW's getting caught.

Maybe the US is dumping Poro.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-donetsk.html

 

[AlbertGrand]

So this OSCE Story about catching Russian soldiers in uniform didn't get much legs to it. Anyone else finding anything, apparently only the NYT Europe tried to float this. Should be a much bigger story on the heels of the 'POW's getting caught.

Maybe the US is dumping Poro.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-donetsk.html

Maybe cause it's Saturday? Do you get the State Department making comments etc on Saturday? Like the UK, I imagine politicians in the US spend all of Saturday preparing what they're gonna talk about on the Sunday political shows that dominate that news agenda. Saturday is often a nothing day for political developments...

 

[ArmyATC]

So this OSCE Story about catching Russian soldiers in uniform didn't get much legs to it. Anyone else finding anything, apparently only the NYT Europe tried to float this. Should be a much bigger story on the heels of the 'POW's getting caught.

Maybe the US is dumping Poro.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-donetsk.html

Maybe cause it's Saturday? Do you get the State Department making comments etc on Saturday? Like the UK, I imagine politicians in the US spend all of Saturday preparing what they're gonna talk about on the Sunday political shows that dominate that news agenda. Saturday is often a nothing day for political developments...

Yes, that is a good point. If the narrative starts to go in the direction of distancing the US from Poro tomorrow, then it will indeed make Poro more desperate (which is an easily anticipated step by all parties). I don't see how Kerry can backtrack on what he said in Sochi, but he's done it before.