Encyclopath said:
The Kiev Post must have the shortest article content in the world.

Any idea of what the numbers were at prior to this?
He definitely wants it to appear as if he's capable of ordering a plausible offensive at a time of his chosing. 50/50 odds on it being a bluff.
Do you think he has the capabilities deployed to pull it off?
(especially given that they will have almost no air support apart from medevacs, and maybe not even then)
I calculate their number of close-air support sorties they have available is exactly equal to their inventory of functional combat aircraft. Then divide that by roughly two.
I give him alone a zero percent chance. I believe Poro and the rebels are desperate and one side or the other will try to kick this off in order to drag in NATO and Russia openly.
I dont know what the troop levels were,but by 'increasing' them, Kiev is filling the role nicely of a villain, should TPTB decide to go that way. Or maybe Poro just doesn't care anymore. Regardless, these S-400 is the Russia version of an air dome over Ukraine.
That's why this is concerning. If it
appears that Kiev, out of lack of UN support, money, pick your poison; attacks the south (notice I used ''appears'), then Russia would have the pretext it has needed to get the south. Probably Kiev as well.
With the positioning of S400s so close, any decisive NATO help would be non existent. At that point, NATO will have to decide if WWIII is worth saving Ukraine.. Meaning an attack on Russia itself.
Which would benefit both sides equally (Kiev and the rebels). A huge gamble, but one I see as a high probability long-term solution, one way or the othe. When people have nothing to lose, they lose it
Mink is not working. It was designed to not work. My goodness, the Ukrainian government and the world still won't recognize Crimea. Mo matter one's personal opinions on that, it's a BIG sticking point to Russia. So unless NATO is willing to physically evict Russia from Crimea, then admit the loss, but don't drag the whole world into some delusion that Crimea will be reunified with Ukraine one day..
No land access to a part of my country (in Russia's mind) that the world refuses to even see as independent? Not a sustainable scenerio. Plus Kiev still is blockading the south: they won't feed, give water, or medicine, nor hold elections and offer immunity (which Kiev agreed to in Minsk II) to the south. Ukraine is a Russian based economy, therefore no EU trade to speak of.
This was always going to end this way. It was just a matter of how and when. Now it will be a matter of how the world responds after that.