Sweden touts 'strategic depth' concept with Finland

[krzepice1976]

The Swedish Air Force (SwAF) has drawn up a concept of 'strategic depth' that would enable Finland to use its bases should that country have to withdraw its forces in the face of an invasion by Russia.
Briefed to reporters in Stockholm on 8 May, the concept is part of a wider bilateral defence cooperation initiative that has been created under the auspices of the newly formed Nordic Defence Cooperation (NORDEFCO) organisation.
"As a small country allied cooperation is vital to us, that's for sure, so we are working very hard to keep the level of cooperation as high as possible and with as many as possible, including with the UN, the EU, and NATO," Colonel Magnus Liljegren from the SwAF headquarters said, adding, "The other organisation is NORDEFCO with the other Nordic countries, and we have been working with this for a couple of years."
As noted by Col Liljegren, Sweden's chief effort within NORDEFCO is in enhancing cooperation its neighbour, Finland. "The focus for us is in enhancing cooperation with Finland, and this is up to the highest levels [of the Swedish government]. Finland is absolutely our top priority partner right now. We have a lot in common, but we also have to bear in mind that Finland is in a different position to us geographically with a border [with Russia] and historically [having fought against Russia]. Finland is a partner that we think can give us a lot, and they are looking to us in order to increase their operational depth. If they need to withdraw they can move into our country and use our bases, so the more we can work together in a flexible way the better it is," the colonel said.

http://www.janes.com/article/70187/sweden-touts-strategic-depth-concept-with-finland

 

[krzepice1976]

From a strictly military perspective, this is an obvious solution. With the increased range of modern air defence and surveillance systems the Finnish air space is more or less contested throughout from the start of a conflict. There are significant benefits coming from operating from Kallax compared to Oulunsalo, not to mention Kuopio-Rissala.
Side note: if Finnish fighters were planning to use Swedish bases, there’s really only one contender that makes sense for HX. The  benefits of deploying to a base that already has everything you need to operate your aircraft in combat compared to having to bring your logistics train with you is huge.
At the same time, it would be an unprecedented political step. I highly doubt there is a Finnish politician ready to sign the paper saying we would join in the fray if Russian troops suddenly appeared on Gotland. Likewise, if we are supposed to use Swedish bases when attacked, that would mean that Sweden would join in a conflict they might not (yet) be part of.
While that might be a hard sell to the voters, it would in fact make sense. If Finland would react to a Crimea-like coup aimed towards Gotland by mobilising the reserve and dispatching air and sea units to throw out the attackers by force and protect shipping around the island, there is in my opinion a higher likelihood that the conflict would stay local and limited in time. The reasoning behind this is the markedly higher deterrence value of the Finnish Defence Forces once mobilised and dispersed compared to their peacetime stance, as well as the increased striking power of the combined Finnish-Swedish forces. For Sweden, the situation is similar. In effect, Finland shields the northern part of Sweden from direct aggression, allowing the numerically small Swedish Army to concentrate their two brigades in the southern parts of the country, something that would also provide Finland with a measure of flanking support. The strength of the defence forces operating together is also larger than the sum of them individually, as the relatively small sizes of both countries means that some capabilities are found only in one of them, and that their combined size can reach quantitative thresholds (‘critical mass’) in areas where this would not be possible individually, both geographic and capability wise.
https://corporalfrisk.com/2017/05/11/strategic-depth-and-alliances/

 

[krzepice1976]

Finland ratified the Treaty of Lisbon nine years ago. The Treaty famously include clause 42.7, the so called solidarity clause.
The clause.
If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.

 

[Doc]

This is the exact opposite of the successful Finish foreign policies of the cold war. Wonder what happened.