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Taiwan Tensions | US - Japan - China - Australia

NuclearID

Intelligence Specialist
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NuclearID68
🇯🇵🪖
Japan JSDF Joint Staff Chief New Year message frames 2026 around a “new integrated operations posture” joint, cross domain, explicitly citing the Joint Operations Command established in March.

Names China’s expanding sea and air activity and DPRK missile launches as core drivers, and reiterates deeper US alliance and partner interoperability under a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

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🇹🇼🏛️🛡️
Taiwan President Lai 2026 New Year address centers “Island of Resilience” messaging and sets “building a safer and more resilient Taiwan” as a top line priority, framed against international volatility and domestic political turbulence. This is strategic narrative positioning for cohesion and deterrence signaling.

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New year, new thread. As you will have noticed with all other major threads as well. NOTE: Redirect links at the last post of each old thread.
 
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US urges Beijing to exercise restraint, cease military pressure on Taiwan, and return to dialogue. Taiwan MND says the PLA fired 27 rockets during the drills, with 10 landing inside Taiwan’s 24nm contiguous zone, plus 77 aircraft (35 crossing the median line) and 17 PLA naval vessels in the referenced window. Taiwan says it remains on alert even after PRC claims the drills ended.

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From The Telegraph (UK):
How China plans to land the world’s largest army on Taiwan

Notable quotes from the article:
An invasion would likely start at the ‘red beaches’ – now among the most dangerous places on Earth

At first glance, Linkou Beach looks like any other. Yet it might be one of Taiwan’s – even the world’s – most dangerous places.

This is one of up to 20 “red beaches” – sections of Taiwan’s coast that are considered likely places for China to land its troops during an invasion.

Linkou makes up part of the coastline of New Taipei City, a municipality that surrounds the capital. Of all the red beaches, this one holds the most strategic value.


It’s near Taiwan’s largest airport, which services the capital; it’s next to the Port of Taipei, a strategic deep-water port, and it borders the mouth of the Tamsui river, which flows through the centre of Taipei and into the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese troops storm a beach during a combat drill. Observers fear the country’s military is being prepared for an invasion of Taiwan Credit: Getty
Dr Tzu-yun Su is a research fellow and director at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Research (INDSR), a military think tank.

He said: “Seizing this area would cut Taiwan’s primary external connections to Taipei, isolating the capital, disrupting its food supply, and undermining morale – essentially a blitzkrieg-style campaign.”

The threat posed by China was demonstrated on Tuesday, when it launched its most extensive military drills around Taiwan to date. It fired rockets towards the island and simulated a blockade of its major ports – including the Port of Taipei.

China called it a “stern warning” against “Taiwan independence separatist forces and external interference”.

Experts estimate that if China successfully lands at Linkou – and that is a big “if” – it could access Taiwan’s main control centres in less than an hour.
An invasion would require hundreds of thousands of well-trained troops, and a vast navy with cutting-edge warships, ordinary civilian barges and everything in between. It would take months or years of planning. Yet, Beijing already seems to be building up such a force.

While China appears to be preparing for a large-scale amphibious assault, it is unlikely that an attack against Taiwan would begin with a landing operation.

Alexander Huang, the chairman of the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies, has spent the past 10 years simulating different ways China could attack Taiwan.

Based on his research, he sees two possible paths.

The first begins with a cyber attack as well as moves against critical infrastructure to “kill Taiwan’s communication control and command control systems”. This strategy would seek to “divide or weaken Taiwan for a swift victory”, said Mr Huang.

The second starts with a “maritime quarantine”, which would gradually block Taiwan’s energy supply and communication networks, to cut the island off from the rest of the world. Unlike a blockade, which would be enforced by the military, a quarantine would use coastguard and civilian ships.

As an island, Taiwan relies on imports for its energy and food, and a quarantine or blockade could be disastrous. Experts told The Telegraph that its current energy supply – which includes liquefied natural gas, renewable production and coal resources – could sustain the island for about 40 days.

A major military operation against Taiwan would likely take four times as long, and, said Mr Huang, China would effectively “squeeze Taiwan until it surrenders”.

Beijing has been practising this type of coercion for years. It has routinely deployed hundreds of ships and planes around Taiwan as part of its “grey zone” pressure – activities that fall short of open warfare but aim to demonstrate strength in the lead-up to an actual conflict.

Prior to the latest drills on Dec 30, China had previously launched a massive exercise around Taiwan days after Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as president in May 2024. More than 110 aircraft and 50 navy and coastguard ships were deployed.

Donald Trump said the latest drills were not a cause for concern because China had “been doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area”.

However, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Authority told The Telegraph that China seemed to be using the tactics “to familiarise themselves with the battlespace for future operational planning” and were simulating blockades “to apply military pressure to test Taiwan’s defence readiness”.
 
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Japan Joint Staff published multiple sightings of PLAN surface units transiting the Okinawa Miyako gap in late December, including a Luyang III-class destroyer (DDG 131) and Jiangkai II-class frigates (FFG 538, FFG 529), with movements out toward the Pacific and/or back to the East China Sea.

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🇨🇳🇯🇵🛑
China MOFCOM just issued Announcement imposing a sweeping dual use export clampdown on Japan. It bans all exports of dual use items to Japanese military end users and any military end use, and also blocks exports to any end user/end use that “helps improve Japan’s military capability.” Effective immediately from issuance.

Most important kicker is MOFCOM warns that any transfer or provision of PRC origin dual use items to Japan via third countries will be investigated and prosecuted.

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🇨🇳🇯🇵🛑
China MOFCOM just issued Announcement imposing a sweeping dual use export clampdown on Japan. It bans all exports of dual use items to Japanese military end users and any military end use, and also blocks exports to any end user/end use that “helps improve Japan’s military capability.” Effective immediately from issuance.

Most important kicker is MOFCOM warns that any transfer or provision of PRC origin dual use items to Japan via third countries will be investigated and prosecuted.

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Isn't this the method that China was using to get around some tariffs? Send pieces and parts to a third party country, assemble the finished goods, and export from there? I guess this qualifies as an admission from the Chinese Communists that they really were up to these kinds of dirty tricks to evade provenance of Chinese-produced goods....
 
Isn't this the method that China was using to get around some tariffs? Send pieces and parts to a third party country, assemble the finished goods, and export from there? I guess this qualifies as an admission from the Chinese Communists that they really were up to these kinds of dirty tricks to evade provenance of Chinese-produced goods....
Why I said in the report "Most important kicker"... Couldn't believe what they said. Didn't know weather to laugh or be mad...
 
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Taiwan hosted European Parliament. The meet centered around current events such as hybrid challenges posed by China & Russia. Taiwan is pitching itself as a reliable partner for resilient democratic supply chains for the EU.

This is political signaling aimed at deepening Taiwan & EU ties beyond trade into security resilience, with supply chains as the concrete cooperation lane.

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🇨🇳🇯🇵🛑
China MOFCOM just issued Announcement imposing a sweeping dual use export clampdown on Japan. It bans all exports of dual use items to Japanese military end users and any military end use, and also blocks exports to any end user/end use that “helps improve Japan’s military capability.” Effective immediately from issuance.

Most important kicker is MOFCOM warns that any transfer or provision of PRC origin dual use items to Japan via third countries will be investigated and prosecuted.

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UPDATE: Japan MOFA says it formally protested China’s new “Japan only” dual use export controls on Jan 6, demanded withdrawal, and called the move “absolutely unacceptable” and outside normal international practice because it singles out Japan.

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Jan 8th: Taiwan MND says the PLA ran a “joint combat readiness patrol." 21 sorties, with 19 crossing the median line/extension into Taiwan’s N, central, and SW airspace, operating with PLA ships.

Also today, Defense Minister Gu also briefed lawmakers that the last wave includes readiness patrols plus designated “no fly” zones and live fire activity. MND claims this recent pattern involved designated exercise zones around Taiwan, 210 aircraft sorties, 17 PLA ships, 8 China Coast Guard vessels, and 27 rockets fired into sea areas, framing it as sustained legal, psychological, and cognitive pressure.

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Taiwan says a Chinese fishing boat captain convicted of negligently damaging the Taiwan Matsu No.2 undersea cable was deported on Jan 8 after paying compensation and fines.

Taiwan’s Coast Guard also contrasted this with a separate undersea cable case it says involved intentional damage, which resulted in a 3 year prison sentence.

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Japan’s Joint Staff says the MSDF tracked a Russian Navy Vishnya class intelligence collection ship moving from northeast of Tsushima through the Tsushima Strait toward the East China Sea. This is routine but relevant. Russia keeps running ISR platforms through key choke points near Japan, and Tokyo is signaling persistent maritime domain awareness.

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🇯🇵🛡️📄
Japan’s government is set to launch a full scale review of the “Three Security Documents” as early as this spring via an expert panel, with the goal of drafting new versions by end 2026. Agenda is expected to include capability and operational gaps, the size of the defense budget, and how to secure funding, with ruling party proposals reportedly targeted as early as April.

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Japan MOD Joint Staff says the CJCS will travel January 12th to 18th to Honolulu and Washington, DC for the Honolulu Defense Forum and senior talks with USINDOPACOM leadership and the US CJCS. Signals continued JP & US operational alignment and top level coordination in the Indo Pacific.

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🇨🇳🇷🇺🇿🇦
China says “Peace Will 2026” maritime joint exercise opened in Simon’s Town (South Africa) with Russia and South Africa participating. Beijing states it deployed the PLAN 48th escort task group. Exercise window described as Jan 9 to 16, with port phase Jan 9 to 12 and sea phase Jan 13 to 15, including comms, formation maneuvering, anti surface strike, “rescue a hijacked ship,” and helicopter medevac.

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Japan MOD says the 2026 “First Parachute Training” (NYJIP26) had a record 14 allied/partner countries participating, with Belgium, Thailand, and Turkey joining for the first time. Tokyo frames it as a major multinational airborne interoperability signal, tied to deterrence, FOIP, and southwest island defense readiness.

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