The End of NASA As We Know It --America's Space Decline

[Spyglass]

So you want the US private sector which has been struggling against China for decades now due to CCP state tactics to somehow beat China, alone? Especially without government intervention? Seriously? Not sure whether to laugh or pull my hair out.

Hang on. I am willing to entertain that I am perhaps behind informationally on this topic, but please explain to me how we have been struggling against China in the space sector?

China isn’t playing “cheaper, faster, better.” They’re playing total dominance. They’ll throw billions at lunar infrastructure, asteroid mining, and Mars bases without worrying about quarterly profits. If America walks away from government backed space power, we’re not just behind we’re permanently sidelined.

There is always an element of “Cheaper” within Chinese manufacturing. Most of the time what they call “advances” are reverse engineered versions of what has already been discovered. If they needed to mobilize the population to manufacture, wages would be an issue. I admit, China has made some advances and discoveries on their own which give me pause, notably fixing the cooling problem on DEW’s, but I digress.

If Trump wants to beat China to the Moon or Mars, and pulls a Kennedy, by God he will make sure he doesn’t loose. You know this.

Space is the new high ground. You don’t surrender it to corporations and hope for the best. You seize it as a nation, or you lose it as a nation.

Yes, high ground it is. I think you are seeing this funding cut in such a negative light that you can’t see the benefits.

Space isn’t something that is meant to be dominated by one nation. It’s meant to be shared in my opinion. A frontier of collaborative exploration and discovery. Terrestrial politics have no place outside of earth’s atmosphere.

But…this is not the reality we live in.

 

[NuclearID]

Hang on. I am willing to entertain that I am perhaps behind informationally on this topic, but please explain to me how we have been struggling against China in the space sector?

China runs a state program that builds the enentire chain i.e launch, stations, lunar architecture, robotics, comms, funded on decades long programs with unlimited funds essentially. Losses don't matter in this regard to CCP where as the private sector would not/cannot.

Our “private” wins ride on government demand. CRS/crew/HLS/CLPS exist because NASA anchored them. Kill NASA’s budget and you don’t get more SpaceX you get less U.S. space, period.

There is always an element of “Cheaper” within Chinese manufacturing. Most of the time what they call “advances” are reverse engineered versions of what has already been discovered. If they needed to mobilize the population to manufacture, wages would be an issue. I admit, China has made some advances and discoveries on their own which give me pause, notably fixing the cooling problem on DEW’s, but I digress.

If Trump wants to beat China to the Moon or Mars, and pulls a Kennedy, by God he will make sure he doesn’t loose. You know this.

“Cheaper/faster/better” works for consumer gadgets. It does not build and defend lunar infrastructure. The profit case isn’t there yet without a sovereign customer. That’s NASA’s job.

“Pull a Kennedy”? You don’t beat a state program by gutting the state program......... Apollo peaked near 4 to 5% of the federal budget.

We didn’t out innovate the USSR by telling investors to handle the Moon we mobilized the nation and set the rules everyone else ended up following.

Yes, high ground it is. I think you are seeing this funding cut in such a negative light that you can’t see the benefits.

Space isn’t something that is meant to be dominated by one nation. It’s meant to be shared in my opinion. A frontier of collaborative exploration and discovery. Terrestrial politics have no place outside of earth’s atmosphere.

But…this is not the reality we live in.

Also “space should be shared”... You collaborate from strength, not from a budget cut. Also you think China going to share? Laugh out loud, literally.

Cutting NASA by almost half doesn’t reveal benefits. It kneecaps Artemis, trashes the lunar industrial base before it exists, and hands the high ground to a enemy.

This isn’t religion it’s industrial policy. Keep private enterprise in gear where it’s best but keep a strong government program to set the speed. We need to keep the rulebook & dominance ours.

 

[Torch]

You know this very well. Republican party always says how US companies cannot compete with China or China is taking their jobs. I mean... and you expect somehow a private sector that for decades has struggled against China to somehow all of the sudden beat China it hasn't been able to beat in a long time?

I didn’t say anything about beating the awakening Dragon (who we used to think was a cute little Panda)
I said private enterprise can out perform the US government.

Frankly the US government cannot out perform China especially as we are weak will and let them steal from us and then sell it back to us. We have shown no backbone or will power.

But the USA private sector can lose SLOWER to China. Their government reacts like it has a rocket up its ass while our fat bloated pre diabetic government has found a favorite chair.

 

[william]

What's going to accelerate the next gold rush is private industry mining on asteroids and other planets. It's all gonna be about the Benjamine's. The government doesn't actually do the drilling or mining. Shell, Exxon, BP and the like do. The best thing the government can do is help private enterprise by deregulation and tax incentives, maybe infrastructure like space ports on earth and on orbit. What is really needed is a space dock to be able to build spaceships in space. That will make it allot cheaper to go where no man has gone before. The main costs now are just getting through the atmosphere to space. IMO

 

[NuclearID]

I didn’t say anything about beating the awakening Dragon (who we used to think was a cute little Panda)
I said private enterprise can out perform the US government.

Frankly the US government cannot out perform China especially as we are weak will and let them steal from us and then sell it back to us. We have shown no backbone or will power.

But the USA private sector can lose SLOWER to China. Their government reacts like it has a rocket up its ass while our fat bloated pre diabetic government has found a favorite chair.

Beijing doesn’t have a “private sector” the way we do it has firms entirly under the direction of the state. Competing with that isn’t government vs. business, it’s nation state vs. nation state. The U.S. wins when public money sets the speed and private firms follow.

In the last five years we’ve also stopped “letting them steal” CFIUS teeth, entity lists, AI chip export controls, outbound investment screening, CHIPS guardrails, anti dumping actions. That’s not a “fat, pre diabetic” government that’s Cold War level statecraft. And we where heading in the right direction. Not anymore.

“Lose slower” is a choice. Out build them in compute, energy, and logistics is also a choice. Procurement to create demand, skilled labor immigration to keep the talent, faster permitting for fabs/transmission, and relentless enforcement on standards to create the rulebook everyone else follows.

Private enterprise outperforms when the state clears and defends the lane from other bad faith actors like CCP. That’s how we actually beat a command economy.

But as I said doesn't matter what I or anyone thinks. We have officially ceded space to China as soon as those cuts came into effect.

 

[NuclearID]

What's going to accelerate the next gold rush is private industry mining on asteroids and other planets. It's all gonna be about the Benjamine's. The government doesn't actually do the drilling or mining. Shell, Exxon, BP and the like do. The best thing the government can do is help private enterprise by deregulation and tax incentives, maybe infrastructure like space ports on earth and on orbit. What is really needed is a space dock to be able to build spaceships in space. That will make it allot cheaper to go where no man has gone before. The main costs now are just getting through the atmosphere to space. IMO

Defeatism dressed as free market praise. Our edge has always been public rails + private engines. Build the rails (export controls, CHIPS, procurement,) and the engines (NVIDIA, SpaceX, TSMC AZ, next-gen energy) do the rest.

 

[Deleted account]

What's going to accelerate the next gold rush is private industry mining on asteroids and other planets. It's all gonna be about the Benjamine's.

Even assuming the daunting technical challenges involved in setting up a (presumably automated) mining operation in the asteroid belt can be overcome, there's absolutely nothing that could potentially be mined from asteroids that cannot be mined on Earth at a miniscule fraction of the cost.

I don't expect to see commercial asteroid mining becoming a reality unless the cost of getting payloads to orbit (currently around $2000 per pound using the cheapest option, i.e. Falcon Heavy) is brought down by at least two orders of magnitude. And there aren't even any good ideas on how that might be accomplished.

 

[Deleted account]

Their government reacts like it has a rocket up its ass while our fat bloated pre diabetic government has found a favorite chair.

I thought you said you had voted for a wrecking ball...? Now it's a rocket up the ass you're demanding...?

Well, worry not; the outcome is the same in both cases - a lot of scattered debris.

 

[Deleted account]

Asteroids can wait. The real race is claiming limited lunar A-tier/prime real estate which is a small region in the lunar south pole where ice is and ridgelines with near constant sunlight. Whoever grabs that high ground owns cislunar logistics.

I’m not worried about rocks in the belt. I’m worried about losing the Moon’s choke points to China. First to the high ground wins the next century.

Problem with lunar bases is, they're very easy to attack. An interplanetary ballistic missile could be quickly built with existing technology, and be nearly impossible to defend against given the resources available to your adversary on the Moon.

In addition, lunar warfare would carry a much lower nuclear use threshold.

For the reason stated above, I think we're exaggerating the threat that a putative Chinese moon base presents to US national security.

 

[NuclearID]

For the reason stated above, I think we're exaggerating the threat that a putative Chinese moon base presents to US national security.

I highly disagree with this narrative.

 

[Deleted account]

I highly disagree with this narrative.

Okay, let me elaborate: a hypothetical Chinese lunar base is a threat to US national security in the sense that if China ever develops the technology and acquires the necessary resources to build and operate a lunar base then surely it will be a sufficiently advanced nation to threaten the US in a myriad other ways. However, the base itself reeks of a white elephant project.

 

[NuclearID]

For the reason stated above, I think we're exaggerating the threat that a putative Chinese moon base presents to US national security.

China knows exactly what it’s doing. It has been working methodically toward a base on the Moon and moving quickly toward that goal.

It has already launched missions like first ever successful operations on darkside of the moon and taken concrete steps aimed at establishing a lunar colony/base/permanent research station.

It also operates a highly capable space station that continues to grow already in Earths orbit, and it’s investing heavily in R&D for lunar operations.

Again, China knows exactly what it’s doing. Apparently America and the broader West either don’t know or don’t care about the extreme threat that poses to all our national security/sovereignty deeply in the West for our future generations and our countries institutions themselves if China sets up camp first.

 

[Deleted account]

China knows exactly what it’s doing.

We-e-ell, that statement needs to be qualified. When compared to the US, absolutely - the Chinese government is a paragon of sobriety and rational thought, and I expect this will serve them well in the long run. But let's not go overboard and start believing they have this global conquest thing planned out in minute detail.

Governments everywhere suffer from some sort of dysfunction, and totalitarian governments doubly so (or at least that's how it used to be before democratic societies ended up poisoning themselves with fake news). Just because China is doing something doesn't automatically make it a good idea.

It has been working methodically toward a base on the Moon and moving quickly toward that goal.
It has already launched missions like first ever successful operations on darkside of the moon and taken concrete steps aimed at establishing a lunar colony/base/permanent research station.
It also operates a highly capable space station that continues to grow already in Earths orbit, and it’s investing heavily in R&D for lunar operations.
Again, China knows exactly what it’s doing. Apparently America and the broader West either don’t know or don’t care.

I'm not questioning the fact that China is expanding its space program. However, as of right now, I fail to see how any of the projects you mentioned translate into additional military threats for China's adversaries.

 

[NuclearID]

We-e-ell, that statement needs to be qualified. When compared to the US, absolutely - the Chinese government is a paragon of sobriety and rational thought, and I expect this will serve them well in the long run. But let's not go overboard and start believing they have this global conquest thing planned out in minute detail.

Governments everywhere suffer from some sort of dysfunction, and totalitarian governments doubly so (or at least that's how it used to be before democratic societies ended up poisoning themselves with fake news). Just because China is doing something doesn't automatically make it a good idea.


I'm not questioning the fact that China is expanding its space program. However, as of right now, I fail to see how any of the projects you mentioned translate into additional military threats for China's adversaries.

You’re looking for missiles. The real threat is leverage. A lunar foothold isn’t about lobbing rocks at Earth. Its about owning lunar logistics and surveillance.

Two things, scarce sites & choke points. The south pole ice near constant sunlight ridgelines are few. Control them and you control propellant and power. Everyone else pays rent.

Propellant = power with moon fuel turns the poles into gas stations for waypoints. Whoever sells the fuel sets the tempo for every deep space mission including military ones.

Lunar domain surveillance is key from the Moon Lagrange Points you can watch most of GEO at once, host sensors in the radio quiet far side.

Norms and “safety zones", you don’t need sovereignty to exclude rivals/enemies. Operational safety perimeters + standards setting create de facto control and keep others out.

Dual use tech another key advantage in precision landing, tele robotics, nuclear surface power, ISRU, and long duration comm relays are military useful whether you label them “science” or not.

If your comms, nav, and resupply chains route go through someone else’s lunar infrastructure, you’re negotiating from weakness in every crisis.

First to the high ground writes the rules and runs the pumps. That’s a strategic threat whether a shot is fired or not.

 

[Deleted account]

Two things, scarce sites & choke points. The south pole ice near constant sunlight ridgelines are few. Control them and you control propellant and power. Everyone else pays rent.

You cannot "control territory" on the Moon in the same way you do on Earth. Down here, territorial control is established by putting boots on the ground; that's how it's always been. Unless you're envisioning an army of space marines literally manning foxholes along the said ridgelines, any Chinese claim of ownership of the lunar south pole would be unenforceable (in addition to being politically moot, since there is no international legal framework for recognizing extraterrestrial claims of sovereignty).

And in any case, a handful of nukes will reliably take care of your problem.

 

[NuclearID]

You cannot "control territory" on the Moon in the same way you do on Earth. Down here, territorial control is established by putting boots on the ground; that's how it's always been. Unless you're envisioning an army of space marines literally manning foxholes along the said ridgelines, any Chinese claim of ownership of the lunar south pole would be unenforceable (in addition to being politically moot, since there is no international legal framework for recognizing extraterrestrial claims of sovereignty).

And in any case, a handful of nukes will reliably take care of your problem.

Already in UN charter and agreed international law by everyone. A country can set up "safety zones.” You don’t need sovereignty to exclude rivals. Operational safety perimeters + standards setting (ILRS vs Artemis) create de facto control and keep others out.

Please take the time to learn how countries have already found loopholes how to control land on the moon. Well more importantly keep people out and have announced exactly this.

Even the Artemis project has in its detailed manifesto by NASA to create "safety zones" i.e claim land wherever they set up camp to keep others out.

I think you just don't really care, refuse to see the very real and extreme national security risk this poses to us if China sets up camp first on the Moon, or just not taking it seriously. Which resonates with most of the West in regards to this saddly.

 

[Deleted account]

Already in UN charter and agreed international law by everyone.

Please cite specific legal acts.

A country can set up safety zones.” You don’t need sovereignty to exclude rivals. Operational safety perimeters + standards setting (ILRS vs Artemis) create de facto control and keep others out.

No, that's de iure control, as in "it exists on paper, but not in practice". For de facto control you need means of coercion, which do not presently exist. You have the two confused.

Please take the time to learn how countries have already found loopholes how to control land on the moon. Well more importantly keep people out.

This would not matter in a military standoff scenario. China cannot just lay claim to the lunar poles and expect everyone else to go along with it.

Even the Artemis project has in its detailed manifesto by NASA to create "safety zones" i.e claim land wherever they set up camp.

Again, de iure control. Were they prepared to kinetically defend their claims if challenged? If so, how?

I think you just don't really care or refuse to see the very real and extreme national security risk this poses to us if China sets up camp first on the Moon.

China presents a very real and extreme national security risk to the US right now. You're basically telling an accident victim who's bleeding out that they should quit smoking or risk developing lung cancer in 10 years.

 

[NuclearID]

None of this is hypothetical. All of it is already in the works by China or in development. They have announced so themselves. Just no one cares or pay attention or takes it seriously when CCP says its doing exaxtly this.

They (China) will have a permanent moon operation and given cuts to NASA they sure as heck will be there first now to set up camp.

 

[Deleted account]

None of this is hypothetical. All of it is already in the works by China or in development. They have announced so themselves. Just no one cares or pay attention or takes it seriously when CCP says its doing exaxtly this.

They (China) will have a permanent moon operation and given cuts to NASA they sure as heck will be there first now to set up camp.

Yes, I agree. This is not a controversial statement to make.

 

[teekay99]

NASA is technically an independent agency of the federal government. I can get behind its downsizing or privatization. I think as @Torch and @Spyglass have pointed out, private enterprise can start performing many of the functions NASA has performed.

However, as @DarkNoon points out, national security is vital to the existence of the United States, and space will be the next battleground frontier, if it is not already. National security is too important to farm out to an independent agency of the federal government. So what if the administration did the following:

1. Privatize NASA
2. Build up Space Force to help provide for the national security requirements of the United States in space?

This solution would privatize the engineering and development side of space exploration, but bring the national security element back into the federal government.