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UA-RU | April 10th-30th | DISCUSSIONS

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Somewhat useful assessment although it was written in early March.
Much has transpired that does indicate rising pressure on Russia.
The massive inflow of weapons to Ukraine and successful prolonged resistance of Ukraine. And prolonged sanctions which raise the damage to Russia’s economy.

It does not however note a developing situation in Moldova we’re seeing and no mention is made of real time new members to nato.
theconversation.com

Ukraine war: what are the risks that Russia will turn to its nuclear arsenal?

We’re still a long way off nuclear escalation.
theconversation.com theconversation.com

This is also interesting and it comes from the article that follows it which is also interesting.
1651054549962.png
warontherocks.com

Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy

Academics and arms control wonks are poring over the painfully worded text of a new Russian policy, reading the tea leaves for insights into Russian
warontherocks.com warontherocks.com
 
Yingyang said:
I see it as a trigger simply as a educated guess,considering his continuous warnings of this situation. It may be bluster it may not. But it is obviously catchy like covid? Sarcasm. But Kim has taken a page out of Putins book now with nuclear threats aswell so expect a nuclear pandemic. 🤣😂🤣. On a serious note this is exactly what Putin has feared for 20yrs. Now what 3 weeks approximately before Sweden and Finland are announced as nato countries on his border. He may well let fly. 🤞 we find out soon.
Click to expand...
You might be right I’m going to think on it.
In one of the articles I post it speaks about the application of threats, implied or direct, as inducement through fear.
We are certainly seeing the application of this tactic.
 
Obreid said:
You might be right I’m going to think on it.
In one of the articles I post it speaks about the application of threats, implied or direct, as inducement through fear.
We are certainly seeing the application of this tactic.
Click to expand...
When your surrounded or backed into a corner what would you do? I would fight like my life depends upon it. We can only hope he is full of shit. But honestly I think he has no other choice. I wouldn't turn around and take it in the arse. Would you? Saying anything else about the past, is the past, and no longer relevant. As of now forward is the real danger. No real future for Russia. May well = fuck everyone else. On another note how the hell is Ukraine expected to pay the world back for support. Zelinski wants 7 million dollars a day to fight back. All the support received so far is in the billions . We haven't even began thinking about aftermath of all this to rebuild the country. Who is going to pay for that? Russia can't afford it. The west ? This whole situation is unrealistic. It will be a miracle if it ends peacefully. Rare earth minerals in Ukraine are needed by the west for technology. Now should that be free.? This shit is one big mess. I only see escalation now by the west or by Putin. Either way . But it cannot go on for much longer. Not another 8 yrs. In 3 weeks time approximately we may well have a really good idea.
 
Yingyang said:
When your surrounded or backed into a corner what would you do? I would fight like my life depends upon it.
Click to expand...
Yes and no, not the proposition how to react when your ass is backed in a corner.
“Russia’s” ass is not backed in a corner.
Putin’s probably is and he does apparently have the authority to launch.

But Russia’s not been invaded, their are no calls at this time to invade Russia.
The calls to replace Putin should never have been voiced. But it’s done.
The west PR campaign is sorely lacking
It needs to be driven home hard in international media that no one in nato wants Russia attacked or destroyed.
That they are now and will be after a sovereign state and their existence will continue.
So Russia leadership of Putin is off his meds needs to sorely consider do they want their nation engaged in a nuclear exchange.
The ball is in their court.
I still maintain the other thing that still needs to happen is a clarification by nato that any use of nuclear weapons will be responded to forcefully. Leave it open ended because it would be.
 
Obreid said:
Yes and no, not the proposition how to react when your ass is backed in a corner.
“Russia’s” ass is not backed in a corner.
Putin’s probably is and he does apparently have the authority to launch.

But Russia’s not been invaded, their are no calls at this time to invade Russia.
The calls to replace Putin should never have been voiced. But it’s done.
The west PR campaign is sorely lacking
It needs to be driven home hard in international media that no one in nato wants Russia attacked or destroyed.
That they are now and will be after a sovereign state and their existence will continue.
So Russia leadership of Putin is off his meds needs to sorely consider do they want their nation engaged in a nuclear exchange.
The ball is in their court.
I still maintain the other thing that still needs to happen is a clarification by nato that any use of nuclear weapons will be responded to forcefully. Leave it open ended because it would be.
Click to expand...
What's your take on the other issues i mentioned eg. Ukraine and financial support?-rebuild? and payback of individual countries support?
 
Obreid said:
Somewhat useful assessment although it was written in early March.
Much has transpired that does indicate rising pressure on Russia.
The massive inflow of weapons to Ukraine and successful prolonged resistance of Ukraine. And prolonged sanctions which raise the damage to Russia’s economy.

It does not however note a developing situation in Moldova we’re seeing and no mention is made of real time new members to nato.
theconversation.com

Ukraine war: what are the risks that Russia will turn to its nuclear arsenal?

We’re still a long way off nuclear escalation.
theconversation.com theconversation.com

This is also interesting and it comes from the article that follows it which is also interesting.
View attachment 2018
warontherocks.com

Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy

Academics and arms control wonks are poring over the painfully worded text of a new Russian policy, reading the tea leaves for insights into Russian
warontherocks.com warontherocks.com
Click to expand...
That is extremely concerning. By their own definition, they are engaged in a local war. The next escalation involves the use of tactical nuclear weapons, either on actual targets or as a demonstration of force. This falls in line with everything we have been discussing for the past two months.
 
Yingyang said:
What's your take on the other issues i mentioned eg. Ukraine and financial support?-rebuild? and payback of individual countries support?
Click to expand...
Well what the hell are you going to do?
I still do t see how it could have been ignored.
As we’ve both discussed the major errors, except for the invasion were all done leading up to it.
I personally feel that Putin’s motivation was to rally the population, possibly deflect from the economy. And restore parts of the more of Russian federation.
As far as negotiations and heading this off before. There was always negotiations either directly or thru public statements.
I personally don’t think there was any negotiating position that would have worked. After Chechnya, Georgia, and then Crimea it was perfectly clear expansion was always the game, one way or the other.
So the only way to prevent or forestall it was thru military strength. And we were so concerned about not provoking Putin we didn’t do it or do it adequately.
Have you ever wondered about the timing of Crimea’s annexation?
Right after the revolution while redline Obama was in office.
It was right after the revolution in Ukraine. Seizing Crimea knew it would be a default block to Ukraine membership. It gave them breathing room.
We are already seeing Russia begin to cause issues and talking points in Moldova. Russian Twitter accounts are alternatingly blaming it on Ukraine or Romania.
Financially who know we’re already printing money hand over fist so I’m like what difference does it make.
 
Yingyang said:
When your surrounded or backed into a corner what would you do? I would fight like my life depends upon it. We can only hope he is full of shit. But honestly I think he has no other choice. I wouldn't turn around and take it in the arse. Would you? Saying anything else about the past, is the past, and no longer relevant. As of now forward is the real danger. No real future for Russia. May well = fuck everyone else. On another note how the hell is Ukraine expected to pay the world back for support. Zelinski wants 7 million dollars a day to fight back. All the support received so far is in the billions . We haven't even began thinking about aftermath of all this to rebuild the country. Who is going to pay for that? Russia can't afford it. The west ? This whole situation is unrealistic. It will be a miracle if it ends peacefully. Rare earth minerals in Ukraine are needed by the west for technology. Now should that be free.? This shit is one big mess. I only see escalation now by the west or by Putin. Either way . But it cannot go on for much longer. Not another 8 yrs. In 3 weeks time approximately we may well have a really good idea.
Click to expand...
These are the points that I've been trying to bring across. You back either an animal or human in a corner, the fight or flight syndrome takes over. On the "lightest side" of these nuclear threats would be Russia lobbing off just one tactical in some area where there's no real danger to life. (yes, I know, somewhat unrealistic) but the fear that it would place in the general world population would be enormous.

Let's just hope that it doesn't go that far.

On the economic side, I don't play the markets at all, but I do watch to at least give me an indicator of what's going on. I just use it as a barometer more or less. In the past 24 hrs., there's been close to a 1250 point swing in the dow, crude oil is over 100 a barrel (again) (which like I said about price spikes with fuel--yes, in my area it's already taken a swing of just another 10 cents a gallon) Diesel is even higher, now at 5.25 a gallon. When you see violent swings like with the dow, it's an indicator the economy is in trouble big time. Even the ruble has gained 50% of its strength back against the dollar in the past month or so.

I know this part might not be popular, but I'll say it anyway. Who have we really hurt? Is it Russia? Well, according to the currency converter, not really. But, look at what this mess has done to the US--inflation at either record or near record highs--fuel at all time high prices--food shortages starting to take effect--lack of fertilizer products--shortages in seeds, fertilizers, and even plants for growing. John Q American just hasn't noticed it yet, but it's there and will hit hard in the coming months. Even the threat more than ever now is the threat that we will destroy ourselves, and possibly the world. Is it really worth it---Seriously?

The mess in the Ukraine and Russia reminds me in many ways of the civil war in the US in the 1860's between those two groups over there that are so intertwined. We have no business getting involved over there at all. Thinking back in even somewhat modern history, the US doesn't have a very good track record of pushing their so called agenda of democracy or constitutional republic throughout the world. It sure wasn't successful in the Mid East, It wasn't successful in Vietnam per say, it was somewhat of a compromise in Korea. The only country that has done pretty well in modern conflicts, after much suffering and pain is Japan.

So, I ask in sincerity, is spending all of the multi-billions of dollars over there really worth it? And, after everything is over with, what do those people have to go back to? Ruined cities? How is Ukraine even going to be able to pay back the huge investments that America has made? The only thing I can see it's done is to strap our children, grand children and even great grandchildren with huge amounts of debt that can probably never be paid off. This is no conspiracy theory--it's just my own personal observations and opinions.

If I"m wrong,,educate me. I'll listen.
 
TCharley300 said:
These are the points that I've been trying to bring across. You back either an animal or human in a corner, the fight or flight syndrome takes over. On the "lightest side" of these nuclear threats would be Russia lobbing off just one tactical in some area where there's no real danger to life. (yes, I know, somewhat unrealistic) but the fear that it would place in the general world population would be enormous.

Let's just hope that it doesn't go that far.

On the economic side, I don't play the markets at all, but I do watch to at least give me an indicator of what's going on. I just use it as a barometer more or less. In the past 24 hrs., there's been close to a 1250 point swing in the dow, crude oil is over 100 a barrel (again) (which like I said about price spikes with fuel--yes, in my area it's already taken a swing of just another 10 cents a gallon) Diesel is even higher, now at 5.25 a gallon. When you see violent swings like with the dow, it's an indicator the economy is in trouble big time. Even the ruble has gained 50% of its strength back against the dollar in the past month or so.

I know this part might not be popular, but I'll say it anyway. Who have we really hurt? Is it Russia? Well, according to the currency converter, not really. But, look at what this mess has done to the US--inflation at either record or near record highs--fuel at all time high prices--food shortages starting to take effect--lack of fertilizer products--shortages in seeds, fertilizers, and even plants for growing. John Q American just hasn't noticed it yet, but it's there and will hit hard in the coming months. Even the threat more than ever now is the threat that we will destroy ourselves, and possibly the world. Is it really worth it---Seriously?

The mess in the Ukraine and Russia reminds me in many ways of the civil war in the US in the 1860's between those two groups over there that are so intertwined. We have no business getting involved over there at all. Thinking back in even somewhat modern history, the US doesn't have a very good track record of pushing their so called agenda of democracy or constitutional republic throughout the world. It sure wasn't successful in the Mid East, It wasn't successful in Vietnam per say, it was somewhat of a compromise in Korea. The only country that has done pretty well in modern conflicts, after much suffering and pain is Japan.

So, I ask in sincerity, is spending all of the multi-billions of dollars over there really worth it? And, after everything is over with, what do those people have to go back to? Ruined cities? How is Ukraine even going to be able to pay back the huge investments that America has made? The only thing I can see it's done is to strap our children, grand children and even great grandchildren with huge amounts of debt that can probably never be paid off. This is no conspiracy theory--it's just my own personal observations and opinions.

If I"m wrong,,educate me. I'll listen.
Click to expand...
Germany did well after war aswell.
 
TCharley300 said:
These are the points that I've been trying to bring across. You back either an animal or human in a corner, the fight or flight syndrome takes over. On the "lightest side" of these nuclear threats would be Russia lobbing off just one tactical in some area where there's no real danger to life. (yes, I know, somewhat unrealistic) but the fear that it would place in the general world population would be enormous.

Let's just hope that it doesn't go that far.

On the economic side, I don't play the markets at all, but I do watch to at least give me an indicator of what's going on. I just use it as a barometer more or less. In the past 24 hrs., there's been close to a 1250 point swing in the dow, crude oil is over 100 a barrel (again) (which like I said about price spikes with fuel--yes, in my area it's already taken a swing of just another 10 cents a gallon) Diesel is even higher, now at 5.25 a gallon. When you see violent swings like with the dow, it's an indicator the economy is in trouble big time. Even the ruble has gained 50% of its strength back against the dollar in the past month or so.

I know this part might not be popular, but I'll say it anyway. Who have we really hurt? Is it Russia? Well, according to the currency converter, not really. But, look at what this mess has done to the US--inflation at either record or near record highs--fuel at all time high prices--food shortages starting to take effect--lack of fertilizer products--shortages in seeds, fertilizers, and even plants for growing. John Q American just hasn't noticed it yet, but it's there and will hit hard in the coming months. Even the threat more than ever now is the threat that we will destroy ourselves, and possibly the world. Is it really worth it---Seriously?

The mess in the Ukraine and Russia reminds me in many ways of the civil war in the US in the 1860's between those two groups over there that are so intertwined. We have no business getting involved over there at all. Thinking back in even somewhat modern history, the US doesn't have a very good track record of pushing their so called agenda of democracy or constitutional republic throughout the world. It sure wasn't successful in the Mid East, It wasn't successful in Vietnam per say, it was somewhat of a compromise in Korea. The only country that has done pretty well in modern conflicts, after much suffering and pain is Japan.

So, I ask in sincerity, is spending all of the multi-billions of dollars over there really worth it? And, after everything is over with, what do those people have to go back to? Ruined cities? How is Ukraine even going to be able to pay back the huge investments that America has made? The only thing I can see it's done is to strap our children, grand children and even great grandchildren with huge amounts of debt that can probably never be paid off. This is no conspiracy theory--it's just my own personal observations and opinions.

If I"m wrong,,educate me. I'll listen.
Click to expand...
Well there were securities give to Ukraine by the US and Russia when they gave up there nukes.
Especially how Putin has reacted to the Baltic states Finland many of the Eastern European nations which are nato. We’re attached at the hip there.
We didn’t endure the Cold War smoothly.?
Do we want to allow an environment where Russia can once again begin to enlarge the Russian Federation boarders. Serbia is directly tied to Russia and Hungary is somewhat sympathetic. Russia already moving on Moldavia. What kind of spot does that mean for Romania and Slovakia?

There was a great deal of uproar in the 60’s 70’s and ending in the 80’s regarding cia activity in central and South America. It was so horrible and sneaky how could america be doing these things. They were messy and several times didn’t have a good outcome.
But remember most of those activities were in response to the Marxist already their. Russia was pursuing hostile and just as ugly gov who were completely dedicated to spread Marxism throughout Latin America.
Personally I wished we could just take care of ourselves and let other nations figure it out.
But is that prudent and wise thing to do allowing a foreign nations move into those areas and seize control almost always by force, indoctrinate and give them the mission of spreading a political alliance that was and some cases still is hostile to the US.

What do you do? I’d much prefer to not be involved in them. But do you ignore them at your own peril.
 
Obreid said:
Well there were securities give to Ukraine by the US and Russia when they gave up there nukes.
Especially how Putin has reacted to the Baltic states Finland many of the Eastern European nations which are nato. We’re attached at the hip there.
We didn’t endure the Cold War smoothly.?
Do we want to allow an environment where Russia can once again begin to enlarge the Russian Federation boarders. Serbia is directly tied to Russia and Hungary is somewhat sympathetic. Russia already moving on Moldavia. What kind of spot does that mean for Romania and Slovakia?

There was a great deal of uproar in the 60’s 70’s and ending in the 80’s regarding cia activity in central and South America. It was so horrible and sneaky how could america be doing these things. They were messy and several times didn’t have a good outcome.
But remember most of those activities were in response to the Marxist already their. Russia was pursuing hostile and just as ugly gov who were completely dedicated to spread Marxism throughout Latin America.
Personally I wished we could just take care of ourselves and let other nations figure it out.
But is that prudent and wise thing to do allowing a foreign nations move into those areas and seize control almost always by force, indoctrinate and give them the mission of spreading a political alliance that was and some cases still is hostile to the US.

What do you do? I’d much prefer to not be involved in them. But do you ignore them at your own peril.
Click to expand...
See, you taught me something, especially since I never really did follow politics. Since a security guarantee was given to Ukraine by the US, I do understand more. And, with Ukraine giving up the nukes, at least that part to me makes sense. Now, I did remember about guarantees given to Switzerland and I think Finland while the process of joining NATO is taking place. So, in that case, it makes Switzerland and Finland a possible target of Russia, somehow, some way. I don't have a clue. Does Switzerland or Finland have nukes?
 
TCharley300 said:
See, you taught me something, especially since I never really did follow politics. Since a security guarantee was given to Ukraine by the US, I do understand more. And, with Ukraine giving up the nukes, at least that part to me makes sense. Now, I did remember about guarantees given to Switzerland and I think Finland while the process of joining NATO is taking place. So, in that case, it makes Switzerland and Finland a possible target of Russia, somehow, some way. I don't have a clue. Does Switzerland or Finland have nukes?
Click to expand...
Switzerland? Do you mean Sweden?
 
TCharley300 said:
See, you taught me something, especially since I never really did follow politics. Since a security guarantee was given to Ukraine by the US, I do understand more. And, with Ukraine giving up the nukes, at least that part to me makes sense. Now, I did remember about guarantees given to Switzerland and I think Finland while the process of joining NATO is taking place. So, in that case, it makes Switzerland and Finland a possible target of Russia, somehow, some way. I don't have a clue. Does Switzerland or Finland have nukes?
Click to expand...
Sweden and Finland. And no, they do not have nuclear weapons.
 
Araxen said:
From the other thread posted by DarkNoon:


NATO has the ability to turn Russia into a wasteland immediately. Get bent Putin. You don't dictate what we do anymore.
Click to expand...
It is becoming tiresome listening to the guy. He has become an embittered little man with delusions of grandeur. He is writing cheques the Russians can't cash.

I am beginning to think that the talk of nuclear war is more to do with the fact that the Russian strategic forces may not be as effective as the Russians would have us all believe, hence them showing off their new ICBM in a vulgar, public display.

Just a pity we can't completely nullify the nuclear threat.
 
Tuor80 said:
It is becoming tiresome listening to the guy. He has become an embittered little man with delusions of grandeur. He is writing cheques the Russians can't cash.

I am beginning to think that the talk of nuclear war is more to do with the fact that the Russian strategic forces may not be as effective as the Russians would have us all believe, hence them showing off their new ICBM in a vulgar, public display.

Just a pity we can't completely nullify the nuclear threat.
Click to expand...
If only 10% of Russia's active-duty nuclear weapons function as intended, that is still sufficient to destroy most of Europe. Do not underestimate Russia's nuclear capabilities.
 
Shadow_Eden said:
Switzerland? Do you mean Sweden?
Click to expand...
Yes. As you can see, and like I said, I don't really follow politics that much, so I"m having to catch up a tad. But, I see the need for it now. And with Riff saying that they don't have nukes,, If they join NATO, that will change in short order. Geez.
 
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