UA-RU | Jan.-1st-2026/August 20th | Analysis

[Publius]

While Washington complains about the financial cost of NATO, the alliance is actually an incredible cash cow for the American military industry (the military-industrial complex). Europeans buy massively "American," which creates a massive and very profitable return on investment for the United States.

That's the real reason.

Specifically European tax payers are paying for it rather than Americans. Which circles back to the intent Eisenhower was getting at.

The funny thing is though. In 1955 the US total federal expenditures on defense was 63% of the budget. In 2025 it is hovering around 13%.

Europe was 13-15% of budget on defense in 55, in 2025 it was still only approaching 3.4%. Which is only slightly more than a 1% increase over the last twenty years.

And everyone is shocked and appalled the US is drawing down our military in Europe.

 

[Snowfall]

Look how interesting it turned out. Apparently, the Russians made a guess that if they didn’t attack Poland, they were going to commit some terrible provocation. This spread through the media. After that, a right-wing Polish politician said that the Tusk government had transferred almost all the Patriot missiles to Ukraine and Poland’s defenses were now seriously weakened. People were scared, there was a scandal, the Tusk government announced the disclosure of information about all the military aid transferred to Ukraine. Of course, this is all just a coincidence, not a planned provocation

https://twitter.com/x/status/2073864695346266385

I must admit this same thought crossed my mind

 

[GBS61]

the US is drawing down our military in Europe

Good riddance

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Good riddance

From a purely strategic look, the US withdrawing from Europe lessens exposure and the chance for a nuclear conflict between Russia and the United States. Though there still is France and the UK to worry about.

And realistically, the US won't abandon Europe.

 

[DarkNoon]

Important note: “The last bastion has fallen” is not Reuters wording. Reuters earlier July 6th piece said Omsk had been one of only two top 10 Russian refineries never hit by Ukrainian drones, with Angarsk named as the other.

Source:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukrainian-drones-hit-russias-largest-refinery-one-deepest-strikes-yet-2026-07-06/

This is why people shouldn't use Twitter OSINT. They always falsify or exaggerate claims and purposely never post their sources for those reasons. They're all what I would describe as parasitic that only create more harm. Vast, overwhelming majority of them at least.

 

[Snowfall]

This is why people shouldn't use Twitter OSINT. They always falsify or exaggerate claims and purposely never post their sources for those reasons. They're all what I would describe as parasitic that only create more harm. Vast, overwhelming majority of them at least.

I think people don’t realize a lot of these refineries get repaired relatively quickly as well.

 

[Publius]

I think people don’t realize a lot of these refineries get repaired relatively quickly as well.

It’s not for nothing though. Remember part of war doesn’t just happen at the front of supply lines.
This is impacting Russia civilian’s perceptions.

Russia is in the midst of a major fuel crisis

Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted problems with the oil supply chain

theweek.com

On top of that there is this recent milestone. Russian losses now have exceeded the siege of Stalingrad
These are blows to the home front that exceed just logistics and battlefield blows.

Russia's Losses in Ukraine Just Passed the Battle of Stalingrad — the Bloodiest Fight of World War II

Russia's losses in Ukraine have now passed the Battle of Stalingrad — 1.4 million casualties, with 30,000 falling monthly against just 27,000 recruits.

nationalsecurityjournal.org

This is generating low level public dissatisfaction with the war and Putin. It is in no way generating the kinds of pressure to remove the government. But again it’s not for nothing.

 

[Snowfall]

It’s not for nothing though. Remember part of war doesn’t just happen at the front of supply lines.
This is impacting Russia civilian’s perceptions.

Russia is in the midst of a major fuel crisis

Russian President Vladimir Putin has admitted problems with the oil supply chain

theweek.com

On top of that there is this recent milestone. Russian losses now have exceeded the siege of Stalingrad
These are blows to the home front that exceed just logistics and battlefield blows.

Russia's Losses in Ukraine Just Passed the Battle of Stalingrad — the Bloodiest Fight of World War II

Russia's losses in Ukraine have now passed the Battle of Stalingrad — 1.4 million casualties, with 30,000 falling monthly against just 27,000 recruits.

nationalsecurityjournal.org

This is generating low level public dissatisfaction with the war and Putin. It is in no way generating the kinds of pressure to remove the government. But again it’s not for nothing.

For sure, refining capacity is definitely impacted I’d just be curious to know how bad it actually is. The kremlin denies it, people in the west are over exaggerating, so I’m curious where in the middle the truth actually lies.

 

[RiffRaff]

Yes in 22 we had months of major buildup of troops and equipment along the boarder 150-180,000 compared to 20-30,000 along the entire Finland Baltic boarders.

It’s not that doesn’t have some meaning but I don’t think it’s indicative of a pre-invasion buildup

 

[Snowfall]

View attachment 9207

I mean this is true, but again what else was expected after Finland and Sweden joined NATO and the deep mistrust between Russia and NATO exists. NATO can scream it’s a defensive alliance all it wants, but the Russians will never believe that so they’re going to respond reciprocally. As for right now, NATO has repeatedly stated Russia does not have the capability to expand forces in the north prior to the end of the war in Ukraine, and this is consistent with what we’ve seen there.

 

[Publius]

View attachment 9207

Well yes they certainly could ramp up the number of troops. And Finland has always been cognizant of this and they are probable the most prepared country in Europe. 70 % of finish men have gone through conscription and military service. 80% of the population say they would show up to defend their nation.

Finland’s quiet confidence: How one small nation has become a defense role model for Europe - ArcticToday

As Russian military presence expands across Finland’s eastern border, the Finns seemed relatively unfazed. With 1,340 kilometres (832 miles) of shared border, Finland has the longest frontier with Russia of any European Union country. But in the event of aggression from Russia, over 80% of Finns...

www.arctictoday.com

NATO is engaging in interoperability exercises in Finland and Sweden on an ongoing rotation And the US working with them to upgrade their capabilities with F-35.

Might Russia do something stupid well absolutely. NATO and the US do not seem blind to this and at least for now responding appropriately.

 

[Publius]

I mean this is true, but again what else was expected after Finland and Sweden joined NATO and the deep mistrust between Russia and NATO exists. NATO can scream it’s a defensive alliance all it wants, but the Russians will never believe that so they’re going to respond reciprocally. As for right now, NATO has repeatedly stated Russia does not have the capability to expand forces in the north prior to the end of the war in Ukraine, and this is consistent with what we’ve seen there.

Russia can’t change the narrative that nato is a threat. It undergirds their national identity.

 

[william]

The Baltic countries are weary of the bear for good reason! I don't blame them one bit for screaming at the top of their lungs about russian aggression and hope they continue. Whether the buildup is factual or not. IMO

 

[Publius]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2073864695346266385

I must admit this same thought crossed my mind

It is a short fall for Poland, just as the US is facing a short fall. Polish military gave i suppose clean audit, 208 missiles in there inventory currently.
Poland has open contract with the US for 200-300 more patriots. Poland has contracts with the US for 250 launchers for the AMRAM missiles. Short answer, missile missiles are strain in the west. Currently the US has tripled production of Patriots from 2024 to 2026. There are contracts with Poland. Germany, Norway, Netherlands and now Ukraine to begin building patriots. Which is a significant expansion of manufaturing capacity. We are behind, but it seems most of NATO is addressing the issue. Ukraine has certainly been a wake up call for Europe.

 

[Publius]

The Baltic countries are weary of the bear for good reason! I don't blame them one bit for screaming at the top of their lungs about russian aggression and hope they continue. Whether the buildup is factual or not. IMO

It is true and if we are going to confront the little green men and and snuff it out. We damn well be ready to allow and help the Baltics do the dirty business required to for them to be successful in snuffing out this subversive activity.

 

[Publius]

For sure, refining capacity is definitely impacted I’d just be curious to know how bad it actually is. The kremlin denies it, people in the west are over exaggerating, so I’m curious where in the middle the truth actually lies.

It’s probably moderate to mild. In Crimea is where it is likely approaching severe.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

China has again formally warned Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Senior Chinese officials confirmed to a Western government that Beijing had relayed the warning directly to Moscow ahead of this week’s NATO summit. Russia’s potential use of tactical nuclear weapons was also raised during at least one meeting between European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2075561602435207660

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch @Sentry

This is more significant than it appears on the surface.

 

[DarkNoon]

This is more significant than it appears on the surface.

I'm reading this as China warning the West that Russia is possibly going to use it, not China warning Russia not to use it. Diplomacy is about reading between the lines a lot of the time, in my opinion...

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I'm reading this as China warning the West that Russia is possibly going to use it, not China warning Russia not to use it. Diplomacy is about reading between the lines a lot of the time, in my opinion...

Possibly, maybe. I think if China was warning the West, they would have made their statement public. As it is, they had to be asked about it. Which indicates that it was originally intended just for Russia, but China isn't afraid to air their warning so everyone knows their own stance on the issue.

 

[Snowfall]

Possibly, maybe. I think if China was warning the West, they would have made their statement public. As it is, they had to be asked about it. Which indicates that it was originally intended just for Russia, but China isn't afraid to air their warning so everyone knows their own stance on the issue.

It was in relation to the latest round of saber rattling in the Russian media. Considering the amount of signaling the west did last time they thought the Russians were considering it, we would have heard about it.