UA-RU | Jan.-1st-2026/August 20th | Analysis

[Deleted account]

With Russian decree for even more mobilization, Europe needs a solid, confident deterrent,

Tell that to Eldridge Colby, who just came out with a statement that the US would be strongly against countries like Germany and Poland acquiring nuclear weapons.

Over the past 12 months the US has summarily destroyed its network of alliances, and has, for all intents and purposes, become an enemy of Europe. In fact, it's difficult to name any notable country which could still reliably be regarded as a US ally. I suppose the list is now down to Israel and maybe Japan.

But fortunately America has "unlimited" supplies of weapons and the ability to wage war on Iran "forever" - so none of the above is a problem.

 

[Lostpuppy]

Tell that to Eldridge Colby, who just came out with a statement that the US would be strongly against countries like Germany and Poland acquiring nuclear weapons.

Over the past 12 months the US has summarily destroyed its network of alliances, and has, for all intents and purposes, become an enemy of Europe. In fact, it's difficult to name any notable country which could still reliably be regarded as a US ally. I suppose the list is now down to Israel and maybe Japan.

But fortunately America has "unlimited" supplies of weapons and the ability to wage war on Iran "forever" - so none of the above is a problem.

Saddest part, historically speaking, allied nations, and Russians “promised” Ukraine , a nation holding nukes, a peace accord.
That peaceful nation gave up its nukes. Russian may not have have been such a bully and invaded, should Ukraine had retained such an option.

Trust was a key ingrediant to Ukraine surrendering the weapon systems.

Lets fast forward to today, disregard your political bias, We now have an alliance that has a known bully(Russia) on its eastern flank, and one of its members doing what appears to be a reconstruction of what it(US)determines to be what alliance, trust and loyalty mean,

At some point its logical,there will be thoughtful and internal review of what each member state can trust, As well how far each will go to placate someone who acts out as a bully. (yes each and everyone has experienced playground bullying)
Research the speach from Davos,
But now the world has reached a cross roads, America appears in actions , to have created an isolationalist enviroment about itsself,

Why shouldnt Germanany Poland, france , finland not have a nuke . Proliferation is a huge concern , but when trust has been so dislodged , What would you when the bully comes for your lunch money, your new shoes? Why do you think N Korea has got away with silly activity?

We are dealing with a simliar prolife in world geopolitics Russian , China, ???
My 5cents from my moonbase.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Saddest part, historically speaking, allied nations, and Russians “promised” Ukraine , a nation holding nukes, a peace accord.
That peaceful nation gave up its nukes. Russian may not have have been such a bully and invaded, should Ukraine had retained such an option.

As we have noted in an article in the past, the United States may not be a reliable ally.

 

[Torch]

Why shouldnt Germanany Poland, france , finland not have a nuke

France has there own and a great many of them.

Germany and Poland have between 50 -100 variable yield nuclear warheads dedicated to them and located in their countries (poland may still be a work in progress no news ever) These weapons are held by the US untial NATO needs them. They are carried by the individual countries planes and pilots to the release points.

Thats as close as having them but then acting like thry don’t. Then they can criticize the US over ours to suit their domestic audience. System has worked fine for ~70 years. (Personally if I was in charge of Germany we would be building warheads and deliver vehicles left and right. The US can always say no.

In the cold war the thought was that the USA would be more willing since it was not our land and therefore the throttle was the various european countries. Now the dynamic has changed and I would not count on my (Germany) interests aligning with the USA any longer.

Note: Example only. Im USA.

 

[Lostpuppy]

France has there own and a great many of them.

Germany and Poland have between 50 -100 variable yield nuclear warheads dedicated to them and located in their countries (poland may still be a work in progress no news ever) These weapons are held by the US untial NATO needs them. They are carried by the individual countries planes and pilots to the release points.

Thats as close as having them but then acting like thry don’t. Then they can criticize the US over ours to suit their domestic audience. System has worked fine for ~70 years.

agreed, Nato should not be modified……. at all, yes spend more,
Lets keep this alliance intact, !!!!

 

[Lostpuppy]

Safety in unity, trust and solid members!!!

 

[Deleted account]

agreed, Nato should be modified……. at all, yes spend more,
Lets keep this alliance intact, !!!!

The US is acting like it actively desires a continental war in Europe (an inevitable outcome of undermining the European Union - which is now an official goal of the US natsec policy). My personal view is that someone in the administration figured that if Europe explodes, the US will be able to grab Greenland (and possibly even Iceland) at no cost.

I may have a political bias, but the above seems rather logical to me. That's why I'm claiming the US has become Europe's enemy. And the most despicable kind of enemy, too - i.e. one who pretends to be your friend.

 

[Erecon]

Yeah, but is it realistic outcome over the next 2½ years? even if Russia holds some small parts of Europe with the current invasion of Ukraine, I have doubts of that scenario to happen. It will test NATO and EU ofc, it might even trigger an invasion of Taiwan, if the US leaves. ( and it might be occupied in Oceania rather begin a stalemate with the Europians over Greenland ) The scenario I look at that the US wants to have EU dependent on it, so it can use its soft power - and hardpower to hold China in check. Besides that the US is doing what the allies did in ww2 atm, its weakening the opposite side by taking out the minor partners of those contries.

 

[Yingyang]

Atleast Russia can make some serious money now due to oil and gas flow down through the hormuz strait. Makes sense russia is in no hurry to stop ME crisis.

 

[Torch]

Atleast Russia can make some serious money now due to oil and gas flow down through the hormuz strait. Makes sense russia is in no hurry to stop ME crisis.

Thats true. And the Indians are grabbing all of it they can.

On the other hand, what choice does India have?

Her piss poor planning (no worse than any country except France (nuclear) Brazil (Ethanol) and the Great Satan herself, the USA (Nuclear with Natural Gas and drill baby drill). Nearly every major country has no plan beyond buying tankers and pipeline shots of the good stuff.

(Not picking on India too much. She cannot just stop because there is no oil. Her leaders have a responsibility to provide for their own peoples and continue to play the middle twixt USA vrs Russia/China

 

[Yingyang]

Thats true. And the Indians are grabbing all of it they can.

On the other hand, what choice does India have?

Her piss poor planning (no worse than any country except France (nuclear) Brazil (Ethanol) and the Great Satan herself, the USA (Nuclear with Natural Gas and drill baby drill). Nearly every major country has no plan beyond buying tankers and pipeline shots of the good stuff.

(Not picking on India too much. She cannot just stop because there is no oil. Her leaders have a responsibility to provide for their own peoples and continue to play the middle twixt USA vrs Russia/China

Yeah well lucky they fence sit.
Imagine the 2 largest populations on the planet as enemies to the west working together, that would be something .

 

[Torch]

Yeah well lucky they fence sit.
Imagine the 2 largest populations on the planet as enemies to the west working together, that would be something .

You mean India and China against the United States AND Nato?

We would destroy them in any conventional setting except the west attempt a land war beyond the littiral regions. On the opposite side of the coin the USA & NATO win by defaukt as both Asian country completely lack the ability to perform as an expeditionary force. They simply cannot get troops to the USA and that would ensure that Europe could hold against an Asian very extended ground war.

Everything changes and maybe 10 years of hard work can change things. In the meantime The USA can take on any two countries in the world and win a conventional war. Now while we are presently unequalled in warfighting, our nation building sucks!

All things change and 19-29 years from now India an Brazil may be pushing out and the USA a shadow.

 

[Lostpuppy]

You mean India and China against the United States AND Nato?

We would destroy them in any conventional setting except the west attempt a land war beyond the littiral regions. On the opposite side of the coin the USA & NATO win by defaukt as both Asian country completely lack the ability to perform as an expeditionary force. They simply cannot get troops to the USA and that would ensure that Europe could hold against an Asian very extended ground war.

Everything changes and maybe 10 years of hard work can change things. In the meantime The USA can take on any two countries in the workd abd win a conventional war. Now will we are oresently unequalled in warfighting, our nation building sucks!

All things change and 19-29 years from now India an Brazil may be pushing out and the USA a shadow.

If you think, sometimes you dont need war to overtake a country, we are seeing a tremdous amount in Europe and to a different extent in NAmerica, An idealogical shift.

You have dry land on one side of the border, a dam , a body water on the other side. Water builds , if you open the dam , a little, alot? The water slowly then faster takes over the land.

Ideaological cultures influencie the new lands they come to, Eventually the land is flooded with the cultures ideology that the original country is so dilluted you no longer are the original country.

A problem of refugee management, when war , famine, population explosion, breaks out ,
a problem the americas felt 500 years ago, history teaches us this.

What are the solutions? Did the Aztecs, Mayan , Aboriginals of Austrailian and all the cultures of the world survive? What Happened?
China has a population of (x), India had a population of (x)

Would war be a good choice to take another country, or the long game, a war over centuries?

People need the opportunity to live , thrive, but most of all get along,

 

[Torch]

If you think, sometimes you dont need war to overtake a country, we are seeing a tremdous amount in Europe and to a different extent in NAmerica, An idealogical shift.

You have dry land on one side of the border, a dam , a body water on the other side. Water builds , if you open the dam , a little, alot? The water slowly then faster takes over the land.

Ideaological cultures influencie the new lands they come to, Eventually the land is flooded with the cultures ideology that the original country is so dilluted you no longer are the original country.

A problem of refugee management, when war , famine, population explosion, breaks out ,
a problem the americas felt 500 years ago, history teaches us this.

What are the solutions? Did the Aztecs, Mayan , Aboriginals of Austrailian and all the cultures of the world survive? What Happened?
China has a population of (x), India had a population of (x)

Would war be a good choice to take another country, or the long game, a war over centuries?

People need the opportunity to live , thrive, but most of all get along,

My personal opinion is that European Culture is lost in Europe. The EU seems to far past the tipping point with Islamic aliens and refugees along with the EU’s suicidal policies of accommodation.

Eventually Canada will be more European the Europe was if the European countries don’t wake up and fight back.

This is another Moor invasion. This time they are trying a soft one. As a group, they supposedly leave their trashcan fire countries to come to Europe and take part in its freedom and prosperity and then they immediately go to work changing it so it’s like the festering pustile they just left.

Britain is lost too.

Again my personal opinion.

 

[Lostpuppy]

My personal opinion is that European Culture is lost in Europe. The EU seems to far past the tipping point with Islamic aliens and refugees along with the EU’s suicidal policies of accommodation.

Eventually Canada will be more European the Europe was if the European countries don’t wake up and fight back.

This is another Moor invasion. This time they are trying a soft one. As a group, they supposedly leave their trashcan fire countries to come to Europe and take part in its freedom and prosperity and then they immediately go to work changing it so it’s like the festering pustile they just left.

Britain is lost too.

Again my personal opinion.

Opinion , observation, you have become a student of history in motion.

 

[Lostpuppy]

My thread Humanity a warring greedy creature reviews these patterns.

 

[Deleted account]

My personal opinion is that European Culture is lost in Europe.

If I were mainling US-based Russian propaganda channels to the exclusion of all other sources of information, I'd probably be thinking the same thing.

The EU seems to far past the tipping point with Islamic aliens and refugees along with the EU’s suicidal policies of accommodation.

The European country with the largest Muslim population is Russia.

 

[Lostpuppy]

If I were mainling US-based Russian propaganda channels to the exclusion of all other sources of information, I'd probably be thinking the same thing.

The European country with the largest Muslim population is Russia.

I’m thinking not its restricted to one cultural ideation, India , China asia for that matter all seek a “better “ life,
The nearly universal bi-product is a form of assimilation. Essentially the BNA Act in reverse.
Russian advertises imigration vacations, the Polish borders(one example) of recent issue, Soviet styles of past create imigration to overwhelm existing populations,
Crimea, Transnistria, and most of the ‘stans.

The Borg would say” Resistance is futile”

 

[Lostpuppy]

Couple of thoughts and predictions as we head into the second week:

• This war is obviously not going well for US/Israel, although - paradoxically - it may achieve the sole objective that is important for the US, which is to further delay (not halt) the Iranian nuclear program. Thus, I think it is too early to call it a strategic failure.
• Regardless of the above, if the war drags on, it risks sucking in more and more actors (akin to the RU/UA conflict), at which point it may become more dangerous than it would otherwise be to allow Iran to carry on with its nuclear program. In particular, if the Iranian regime shows resilience, it may receive support from other major powers which are clearly interested in dragging the US into a quagmire (note, for example, that according to WaPo Russia is now providing Iran with intel on the locations of US military assets in the region).
• None of the other objectives floated by the US administration (such as achieving regime change, reigniting the failed popular revolt, installing a more US-friendly government, eliminating the threat of ballistic missiles/drones, etc.) appears achievable. Iran will adapt to the airstrikes in the same way as Ukraine - by decentralizing production capabilities. Given the size and geography of the country, the regime should have no problem setting up a cottage industry capable of producing large quantities of cheap attack drones, which will enable it to continue terrorizing the region.
• The likelihood of a ground war remains very low. None of the regional actors appear remotely interested in such an adventure, and for the US it's a non-starter due to domestic factors.
• The likelihood of nuclear escalation remains low. Contrary to what the DWS staff believes, I assess that Iran is highly unlikely to possess a nuclear device (meaning - something they can detonate in a nuclear test), and its possession of actual nuclear weapons (meaning - something that can be reliably delivered to an intended target outside of Iran) is out of the question. That said, Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains unaccounted for since last June, and if the regime survives, it will surely seek to build or otherwise acquire nuclear capabilities.
• If the war drags on, there is a likelihood that it will be used by the US administration as a pretext to cancel the midterms (recall that Trump spoke in a meeting with Zelenskyy: "During the war, you can't have elections? So let me just see, three and a half years from now, if we happen to be in a war with somebody, no more elections? That's good.")

Its logical no one wants to have the thousand if boots on the grounds , Supporting nations didnt really get a chance to make a go , nogo on the action.
Allie making hasnt been tbe WH’ best ability presented, they may have achieved reluctance on the other hand,
Beat a horse enough , eventually it wont eat.

Who is WaPo? I’d guess but

Your ponder where the 100kg or so of material can be moved in cylinders small enough to fit in

Transport Weight & Dimensions (High-Level)
Uranium hexafluoride (UF6) is transported in:

• Standard 30B cylinders (~2.5 tons total weight loaded)
• Steel cylinders roughly 1–1.5 meters long

These are industrial-scale items, not small briefcase-sized objects.

Transport Weight & Dimensions (High-Level)

Uranium hexafluoride (UF6) is transported in:

• Standard 30B cylinders (~2.5 tons total weight loaded)
• Steel cylinders roughly 1–1.5 meters long

These are industrial-scale items, not small briefcase-sized objects.

They drag on war is potentially high if Iran doesnt surrender, home scale attack systems definitely the way to go, Works in Ukraine!

Scariest part is your last thought, sadly it was telegraphed so a wait and see thing

The question will will tbe general popace accept that,?

 

[Yingyang]

Opinion , observation, you have become a student of history in motion.

Correct because america isn't different and time will show it if 911 didn't.