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UA-RU-NATO | April 1st-30th | REPORTS

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Russia Issues Nuclear Threat Ahead of Ukrainian Counter Offensive–ISW
If russia gets their ass kicked in a Ukrainian counter offensive do you think they would use tactical nukes to stop it? I always thought that the side that was getting their butt kicked would be the first to use a nuke.
I'm not quite sure I agree with ISW's assessment that it is nuclear blackmail strictly to keep the West from intervening in the Ukraine war. In part, I also think that it is because Russia truly believes NATO plans to invade.
 
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I'm not quite sure I agree with ISW's assessment that it is nuclear blackmail strictly to keep the West from intervening in the Ukraine war. In part, I also think that it is because Russia truly believes NATO plans to invade.

I agree. They have always been paranoid of the west. This coming counter offensive by Ukraine is going to be pivotal. I just worry what putin will do if it looks like it is going to succeed.
 
I'm not quite sure I agree with ISW's assessment that it is nuclear blackmail strictly to keep the West from intervening in the Ukraine war. In part, I also think that it is because Russia truly believes NATO plans to invade.
The Kremlin continues to attempt to employ nuclear threats to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu justified Russia’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus by accusing NATO of intensifying combat training and reconnaissance activities near the Russian and Belarusian borders and accused the West of escalating the war in Ukraine by providing additional military aid to Ukraine on April 4.[5] Shoigu reinforced existing Russian nuclear threats by stating that Belarus has nuclear-capable attack aircraft and nuclear strike-capable Iskander-M systems.[6] Shoigu also stated that Belarusian missile forces began training in Russia to operate Iskander-M systems, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, on April 3.[7] Shoigu’s statements do not present any new information on Belarusian training and are likely part of an information operation. ISW previously reported that Belarusian servicemen were training with Iskander systems in Russia as of February 2023.[8] Shoigu’s reinvigorated nuclear blackmail rhetoric coincides with Finland joining NATO and a new US aid package to Ukraine.[9] ISW continues to assess that the risk of nuclear escalation remains extremely low and that Russian deployments of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus are highly unlikely to affect battlefield realities in Ukraine.[10] Russian-deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus additionally will almost certainly remain under the control of Russian personnel permanently deployed in Belarus.
 
The Kremlin continues to attempt to employ nuclear threats to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu justified Russia’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus by accusing NATO of intensifying combat training and reconnaissance activities near the Russian and Belarusian borders and accused the West of escalating the war in Ukraine by providing additional military aid to Ukraine on April 4.[5] Shoigu reinforced existing Russian nuclear threats by stating that Belarus has nuclear-capable attack aircraft and nuclear strike-capable Iskander-M systems.[6] Shoigu also stated that Belarusian missile forces began training in Russia to operate Iskander-M systems, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, on April 3.[7] Shoigu’s statements do not present any new information on Belarusian training and are likely part of an information operation. ISW previously reported that Belarusian servicemen were training with Iskander systems in Russia as of February 2023.[8] Shoigu’s reinvigorated nuclear blackmail rhetoric coincides with Finland joining NATO and a new US aid package to Ukraine.[9] ISW continues to assess that the risk of nuclear escalation remains extremely low and that Russian deployments of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus are highly unlikely to affect battlefield realities in Ukraine.[10] Russian-deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus additionally will almost certainly remain under the control of Russian personnel permanently deployed in Belarus.
Russia nuclear card is the only trump card they have left, and they are playing it it try to stave off the “epic beat down”, a highly technical military term I learned in the advances course.

The biggest problem, as I see it, is Russia can only play the card once, then they will receive in kind. People ask will the US trade NYC for Moscow. My question is back at them: Is Russia ready to trade Moscow for Kiev? I’m sure thats a hard pass. However Im certain they are willing to risk anything to hold on to the Crimea.

The only way out seems to be a bullet in Putins head and then a Ukraine willing to negotiate. I wonder if a deal such as the US indefinite lease of Guantánamo Bay, can be worked out?
 
Alternate sources:
 
Ukrainian military complete NATO CIMIC training course – General Staff


*This is important in that it begins, or continues, the training of near future leaders of UA to NATO standards. Many more of these will be required for integration with NATO.
 
Uops just noticed i posted a link previously with a paywall.
Here it is:
 
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