UA-RU-NATO | Discussions 2024

[krzepice1976]

7. The strategy of forcing peace negotiations on Moscow should be multi-stage, provide the possibility of increasing pressure and should lead to increased security of the eastern flank of NATO and the Republic of Poland. Its basic, phased-in elements include:

a. limiting the freedom of navigation of ships that are part of the "shadow fleet" that serve Russian interests in the Baltic Sea, up to the point of completely closing this water area to such vessels

b. building a joint situational awareness system in the Baltic Sea as part of the deterrence-by-detection strategy, closing the access of Russian ships and merchant ships to subsequent parts of the Baltic Sea as part of

a strategy of increasing pressure on Russia, starting from the western part of this Baltic water area

c. strengthening Ukrainian capabilities to defend its own airspace by deploying additional anti-missile defense systems from NATO countries

d. creating a joint combat aviation mission and introducing a "no-fly zones" first over the western regions of Ukraine, and then, if Moscow is persistent, expanding the areas covered by protection

e. strengthening NATO capabilities in the area of protecting shipping lanes in the Black Sea

f. creating a multinational stabilization corps of land forces by NATO countries and starting its deployment to Ukraine, starting from the western part of the country, even before the ceasefire talks began

https://twitter.com/x/status/1872308100478181681

 

[krzepice1976]

8. In parallel, the Republic of Poland's Western allies, including primarily the United States, should signal their readiness to change the target security system of NATO's eastern flank. The most important steps that must be agreed upon before the implementation of the strategy to enforce peace in Ukraine begins include:

a. abrogation of the Russia-NATO Founding Act and abandonment of the "three times no" doctrine.

b. The United States, strengthening the defense of NATO's eastern flank, should decide to shift part of its military potential from its current locations (Italy and Germany) to Poland, as well as support actions that would lead to the transfer of the main logistics corridors to the Baltic and Northern European areas

c. As part of strengthening the nuclear deterrence of the Russian Federation, the Nuclear Sharing program should be reformed by taking actions leading to its expansion to include Poland and other interested countries in the region, and conventional deterrence capabilities should also be strengthened

d. Poland's increased involvement in the security architecture on NATO's eastern flank must ultimately lead to changes in the program of the forward presence of the North Atlantic Treaty forces, which would be confirmed by the Republic of Poland assuming the duties of a framework state in one of the allied countries.

 

[DarkNoon]

On this day in 1991, the totalitarian Soviet empire collapsed, liberating hundreds of millions of people from slavery and genocide. Today, Russia seeks to rebuild this failed empire. We must stand with Ukrainians and Georgians and all free peoples to ensure they do not succeed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1872392398934085921

 

[Torch]

abrogation of the Russia-NATO Founding Act and abandonment of the "three times no" doctrine.

Ok with you over abrogating or at least abeyance of the treaty. (Oddly enough this could require negotiations)

However AFAIK 3X3No or “no—three times no” applies to torts in common law. Are you referring to post war reparations or damages?
If so I am way out of my league here. (Heck probably out of my league no matter what it means)

 

[GBS61]

Wishful thinking. Soft support from USA, and more to come.

We must stand with Ukrainians and Georgians and all free peoples to ensure they do not succeed.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Anything that begins with "Russia gives up..." is an automatic loser. Russia has no incentive to acquiesce anything in the face of inadequate and waning Western support.

 

[Snowfall]

In the defense report of the State Council, it is considered possible that Russia would attack Finland, Northern Norway and the Baltics.

- The war in Ukraine has shown that Russia is ready to take significant risks regardless of losses, the Finnish government warns.
NATO sources tell Iltalehti that Russia has been practicing an attack on Finland and other countries of NATO's eastern side. This analysis describes NATO's assessment of the Russian threat.

Last March, the defense alliance NATO practiced moving 20,000 soldiers to Northern Norway and Finnish Lapland.

The Nordic Response exercise was led by American Vice Admiral Douglas Perry, Commander of NATO's Northern Headquarters in Norfolk.

- With the number of troops, ships and aircraft and our presence here, we show that we are capable of large-scale operations, which we would carry out if necessary to expel the Russian invaders, Perry stressed to Iltalehti.

Analyysi: Venäjä harjoitteli hyökkäystä Suomeen ja Viroon – näin vakava on Naton uhka-arvio

Nato-lähteet kertovat Iltalehdelle, millaista hyökkäystä Venäjä on harjoitellut Suomeen, Baltiaan ja Norjaan. Tilanteen vakavuus käy ilmi puolustusselonteon kirjauksista, Iltalehden politiikan toimittaja Lauri Nurmi kirjoittaa analyysissaan.

www.iltalehti.fi

So what they’re saying is Russia practices attacks on NATO and NATO practices attacks on Russia, isn’t that the whole point of having a military?
As for significant risks with no regards for losses, there’s a difference between taking high losses and achieving your goal, and taking high losses and your entire country being destroyed in a nuclear war, which there’s no way way Russia doesn’t know that starting a with with NATO would end with.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

So what they’re saying is Russia practices attacks on NATO and NATO practices attacks on Russia, isn’t that the whole point of having a military?

The concern is that one side may see the other side's "drills" as preparation for invasion.

 

[Snowfall]

The concern is that one side may see the other side's "drills" as preparation for invasion.

Fair point able archer in reverse I guess.

 

[Torch]

ReForGer was absolutely scaled to fight the USSR. But after 1990, the Russians were our friends and both sides stopped drills against each other.

So many mistakes and missed opportunities for a lasting Peace. Although I guess 30 years was a good run by post war metrics.

 

[Snowfall]

️️
Latvia May Begin Seizing Ships of The Russian “Shadow Fleet” in Order to Defend Critical Infrastructure:

Latvia may seize Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ if threats arise in the Baltic Sea — Prime Minister

Latvia may seize ships from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” if threats emerge in the Baltic Sea, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa said in an interview with BBC World.

english.nv.ua

I’d assume this is similar to what Finland did in regards to the ship they accused of breaking the cable not just seizing ships left and right in international waters. Mainly because they only have 5 patrol boats and a few mine laying vessels.

 

[DarkNoon]

Interesting that Ukraine's regular attacks on russia's oil industry, deep inside russia, have also become quietly normalised.

Neither the kremlin nor Western media is screaming about WWIII anymore.

Ukraine's long range strikes were never a problem. I hope that's clear now.
Video:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1878353224228331597

 

[GBS61]

Neither the kremlin nor Western media is screaming about WWIII anymore.

Of course, they are waiting for Donald Trump to come, it will depend on the Trump administration for the future.
I predict that Moscow will be DT's first trip abroad.

 

[DarkNoon]

I predict that Moscow will be DT's first trip abroad.

I predict RIP Ukraine.

 

[Snowfall]

I predict RIP Ukraine.

I used to think that but I’m beginning to think that someone at the kremlin will offend Trump and then he may pull a Reagan.

 

[DarkNoon]

I used to think that but I’m beginning to think that someone at the kremlin will offend Trump and then he may pull a Reagan.

I respect you. So I say this with no disrespect. But that is wishful thinking imo...

 

[King Crab]

Trump is very set in stone hard headed template and typically his first comments on a topic may seem off the cuff but usually are the ones he will be adhering to come hell or high water. He may dance around a subject to keep a polarized impression to the world but it's pretty obvious Ukraine is fucked.

 

[Peter Griffin]

The fate of Ukraine depends on if Zelensky can make it beneficial for Trump to keep supplying them with weapons. It would probably take an extreme Hybrid warfare/terrorist attack perped by Russia or proxies such as Chechnya, on the USA, to even get Trump to think about supporting Ukraine. However, I do believe that if Trump were to be swayed to the side of Ukraine, it would take a severe amount of education on the conflict for the large swathes of his supporters who are completely uneducated on the subject. His entire campaign was fueled by the Dunning-Krueger effect wrapped in real sentiment, so any real opinion change in his base is unlikely if he continues to platform some of the ideas that he is currently.

 

[Peter Griffin]

The fate of Ukraine depends on if Zelensky can make it beneficial for Trump to keep supplying them with weapons. It would probably take an extreme Hybrid warfare/terrorist attack perped by Russia or proxies such as Chechnya, on the USA, to even get Trump to think about supporting Ukraine. However, I do believe that if Trump were to be swayed to the side of Ukraine, it would take a severe amount of education on the conflict for the large swathes of his supporters who are completely uneducated on the subject. His entire campaign was fueled by the Dunning-Krueger effect wrapped in real sentiment, so any real opinion change in his base is unlikely if he continues to platform some of the ideas that he is currently.

Also, if Trump were to take the side of Ukraine, I believe he would execute his plans to the utmost extend, solidifying his image as a strongman. Which could prove to be exactly what Ukraine needs right now.

 

[Snowfall]

I respect you. So I say this with no disrespect. But that is wishful thinking imo...

The only reason I say it is because Trump is extremely reactionary. If Trump thinks he’s gonna come into office and make a deal with the kremlin but the kremlin tries to make him look stupid I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit back quite hard. It’s gonna come down to what the kremlin wants but I sincerely doubt the kremlin has any honest intentions of negotiating right now or in this year even. So if the kremlin makes trump look dumb or weak then don’t put it past him. Then we’re gonna have the smugness from Trump though acting like saving Ukraine is a nationally priority after trash talking them for a year.