UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS (Closed)

[DEFCON Warning System]

Thing is, it's not that easy - in a very practical sense - to "go nuclear". Nukes are not an "I win" button for Putin. In fact, you could perhaps argue that nukes are kind of a crappy weapon - at least when you evaluate their potential as a tool which allows you to meet your political objectives.

In the case of Ukraine, nuclear weapons are a psychological weapon. Russia would pop one off in the hopes that it gets Ukraine to surrender or at the very least get the West to back off, fearing escalation. After all, is Germany really willing to sacrifice Berlin for Kyiv?

So what is preventing Russia from doing that now? It's a cost/benefit analysis. How would the world react to a nuclear weapon being used? Russia thinks it is a pariah now, just wait until a mushroom cloud shows up.

But don't think that such a calculus doesn't have nuclear weapon use in it. Russia has thrown around a lot of "red lines" only to step back and back and back. There is a point, however, where their back will be to a wall.

Crimea may be it. They need that warm water port. I can see nukes being used over that. Without Crimea, the Russian fleet is bogged down in the winter. Honestly, I'd use a nuke to keep it.

 

[Torch]

In my opinion the only way Russia DOESN'T use a nuke over the Crimea is if they get to keep part of it, like the US in Cuba, from Sevastopol to Kerch. I believe that Russia will unhappily accept 2022 borders. Perhaps the single most important point is that the people in the Southern Crimean WANT to be part of the greater glory that is the Russian Empire.

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

greater glory that is the Russian Empire.

Glory isn't the word I'd use. Haha!!!

 

[Torch]

Glory isn't the word I'd use. Haha!!!

No sh#t!
I was definitely smirking when I wrote that!

 

[Yingyang]

Just a thought here and I know most aren't interested but Russia-Glory is actually a thing if you stop comparing it to ussr.
Study a bit more on Russia today not years ago. Russia is prosperous Russia is proud. Most of all Russia is united.
Regardless of propaganda of a couple of small groups running around trying to cause havoc.
Never underestimate the opponent you create-or believe you have , infact scrub my first two and stick with enemy .NEVER UNDERESTIMATE YOUR ENEMY.

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

Russia-Glory

Hahahaha! Stop your gonna make me cry I'm laughing so hard.

 

[Yingyang]

Apologies DARKNOON-TOTALITY. In no way was that meant as personal attack. I was simply pointing out individuals decision making processes, staggered information leading to decisions made, and beliefs due to education and information received and believed without questioning-studying.

 

[Publius]

Just a thought here and I know most aren't interested but Russia-Glory is actually a thing if you stop comparing it to ussr.
Study a bit more on Russia today not years ago. Russia is prosperous Russia is proud. Most of all Russia is united.
Regardless of propaganda of a couple of small groups running around trying to cause havoc.
Never underestimate the opponent you create-or believe you have , infact scrub my first two and stick with enemy .NEVER UNDERESTIMATE YOUR ENEMY.

Why I agree with you we can’t say that support for the war is waning in Russia. We all know the public support can flip quickly.
Just as everyone was taken by surprise when the Soviets crashed. It is often difficult to know true public opinion in semi closed societies.
Last I read it was estimated as just over 50% favorable.

If pride is demonstrably proven by invading and assimilating another nation. Then I say their pride is misplaced.

 

[Erecon]

But this is not just about the US and Russia as much as some would like it to make about that.
This is about Russias actions now against Ukraine. It is about the majority of the Eastern European NATO members reaction and response towards Russias invasion.
So yeah - there you go

Its excactly about Russian and US imperialisme "there you go fella I corrected you"

 

[Publius]

Its excactly about Russian and US imperialisme "there you go fella I corrected you"

Would you like to explain why? I’ve explained why it is not.
Infact the only provably obvious imperialist here is Russia inflicting their will on Ukraine.
I’ve illustrated numerous times how it was the Eastern European countries who were ringing the alarm bells in the fall before the war that Russia was a threat and they were going to invade Ukraine.
Was it imperialist America who coerced Finland and Sweden to join nato after seventy years of choosing to stay out of NATO?
What form of imperialist machinations forces two successful independent nations to bow on bended knee to join a defense pac.
Def pacs by nature and definition are treaties to thwart an aggressor.
Which Russia has successfully proven true and accurate.

A voluntary treaty org, verses a expansionist nation who possess overwhelming threat of military power to overrun small independent European nations.

It’s seems the expansion of nato was infact proven necessary all along.

 

[Yingyang]

Would you like to explain why? I’ve explained why it is not.
Infact the only provably obvious imperialist here is Russia inflicting their will on Ukraine.
I’ve illustrated numerous times how it was the Eastern European countries who were ringing the alarm bells in the fall before the war that Russia was a threat and they were going to invade Ukraine.
Was it imperialist America who coerced Finland and Sweden to join nato after seventy years of choosing to stay out of NATO?
What form of imperialist machinations forces two successful independent nations to bow on bended knee to join a defense pac.
Def pacs by nature and definition are treaties to thwart an aggressor.
Which Russia has successfully proven true and accurate.

A voluntary treaty org, verses a expansionist nation who possess overwhelming threat of military power to overrun small independent European nations.

It’s seems the expansion of nato was infact proven necessary all along.

This issue on how Russia and Ukraine started conflict is ridiculous. Especially by this stage . Really who did what and why is an never ending debate.
In all honesty we really should only be fixated on possible outcomes because turning back the clock and pointing fingers won't achieve a different outcome. What happens, happens. Only those with the power to change the situation have the option. Unfortunately as both sides have this option and choose not too , for obvious reasons all the whinging and blames changes nothing. The future is the issue now. And honestly we are just spectators being affected by it, granted not to same capacity as those actually in Ukraine or Russia or even parts of Europe. But we could easily all be victims equally if worse case scenario comes to a head. All because a regional war can-could possibly has suddenly expanded from something that started approximately a decade ago has suddenly become global effort.
Sit back wait and watch. Because we can't change it nor stop it. We are not authorised.

 

[Publius]

This issue on how Russia and Ukraine started conflict is ridiculous. Especially by this stage . Really who did what and why is an never ending debate.
In all honesty we really should only be fixated on possible outcomes because turning back the clock and pointing fingers won't achieve a different outcome. What happens, happens. Only those with the power to change the situation have the option. Unfortunately as both sides have this option and choose not too , for obvious reasons all the whinging and blames changes nothing. The future is the issue now. And honestly we are just spectators being affected by it, granted not to same capacity as those actually in Ukraine or Russia or even parts of Europe. But we could easily all be victims equally if worse case scenario comes to a head. All because a regional war can-could possibly has suddenly expanded from something that started approximately a decade ago has suddenly become global effort.
Sit back wait and watch. Because we can't change it nor stop it. We are not authorised.

In principle I agree with you yingyang.
But this is not universally true.
The publics abandonment of the Vietnam war did have a significant effect on the US’s withdraw from the war.
Individuals and small groups obviously can’t change the course but as it spreads it can at times bring change

 

[Yingyang]

In principle I agree with you yingyang.
But this is not universally true.
The publics abandonment of the Vietnam war did have a significant effect on the US’s withdraw from the war.
Individuals and small groups obviously can’t change the course but as it spreads it can at times bring change

Yes I guess sometimes I lose faith in humanity. My father is vet who served in Vietnam and he always told me I have to much faith in humanity. As I get older and local plus international issues seem to be getting worse than better I'm slowly losing faith. Sorry I know it's not impossible but the general public interests seem to have changed alot since back in the day.

 

[Yingyang]

In principle I agree with you yingyang.
But this is not universally true.
The publics abandonment of the Vietnam war did have a significant effect on the US’s withdraw from the war.
Individuals and small groups obviously can’t change the course but as it spreads it can at times bring change

Funny though you use that as an example considering how those vets were treated when they got home . and not just by the public but the government's and military establishments that sent them.

 

[Deleted account]

But don't think that such a calculus doesn't have nuclear weapon use in it. Russia has thrown around a lot of "red lines" only to step back and back and back. There is a point, however, where their back will be to a wall.

Crimea may be it. They need that warm water port. I can see nukes being used over that. Without Crimea, the Russian fleet is bogged down in the winter. Honestly, I'd use a nuke to keep it.

I agree. If the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes a lot of headway, the calculus may change. Whether it's Crimea or something else is up for debate. Personally, I believe Putin might also push the button if his land corridor to Crimea is at risk of being severed, as this would make Crimea untenable given the lack of a convenient supply route.

There's been conflicting rhetoric coming out of Kyiv as regards Crimea. Some officials are advocating for a military reconquest of the peninsula, while others (apparently including Zelensky himself) are speaking of taking back Crimea "by diplomatic means" (which is probably a veiled way to say the Russians can keep it if they give up everything else).

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

It’s seems the expansion of nato was infact proven necessary all along.

Sure was/is. No one else but Putin could have done such a amazing job uniting NATO and making it entirely necessary again. Thanks Putin.

 

[Publius]

Funny though you use that as an example considering how those vets were treated when they got home . and not just by the public but the government's and military establishments that sent them.

It’s was a difficult and confusing time for everyone. Many were convinced that US military action could do no wrong. But they did not understand the dynamics of emerging geopolitical power and action.
Without a clear civilian understanding and buy in for military action. WW2 was easy. But war is rarely easy.
Today the civilian population would not respond well to the meat grinder of Grant and Sherman’s defeat of the confederacy. It was brutal, really brutal and it in action took no prisoners uniformed or not. But it was the only way to facilitate the u equivocal surrender of Lee. They simply gave him no where to turn to escape and resupply. It was total war.
Kind of like the way Russians fight, except today they are short of resupply in a few key weapons systems.
The solders were received home in such a poor way because they were the face of the civilian leadership’s failures.
And I don’t just mean Nixon. But Johnson and Kennedy as well.

The Vietnam war proved one thing static defensive warfare is always doomed to failure. If blood is to be spilled in it should be total war with the aim to beat the adversary into total surrender. If that cannot be accomplished then other means should be employed short of open warfare. That is what the Cold War was it was a war with the Soviets short of open warfare.

 

[Saguenay]

Sure was/is. No one else but Putin could have done such a amazing job uniting NATO and making it entirely necessary again. Thanks Putin.

NATO is more united politically, but weaker since the end of the Cold War, most NATO countries have abolished compulsory military service.
Some countries have compulsory military service (for example, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Norway, Turkey, Switzerland, Sweden and Israel). In this list: Austria, Switzerland and Israel are not part of NATO.
During a world conflict, the great weakness of NATO would be its lack of soldiers, especially if China takes part in it.

 

[Publius]

NATO is more united politically, but weaker since the end of the Cold War, most NATO countries have abolished compulsory military service.
Some countries have compulsory military service (for example, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Norway, Turkey, Switzerland, Sweden and Israel). In this list: Austria, Switzerland and Israel are not part of NATO.
During a world conflict, the great weakness of NATO would be its lack of soldiers, especially if China takes part in it.

Russia has never won a war in which they initiated the conflict. Yes against Georgia and Chechnya they won. But those were overwhelming odds. And they had to resort to scorched earth in Chechnya.
Before WW2 the standing US military was smaller than the standing army of Portugal. So readiness is not always a proven indicator of a nations ability to respond to a major conflict.
It is true that the US is definitely divided regarding foreign wars right now. But it is impossible to predict how the US for one would respond.
Their is a significant portion of Americans who would be willing to responded to a significant new military attack with a strategic nuke on said nations capital and call it even. That’s not the correct response of course.
I’m only saying don’t confuse current readiness with response.

I will also again point out That a million man army is useless if they dont have the logistics to move them in a timely.

In a recent policy meeting Xi announced that restoring CCP control of their nations citizenry was also a national security issue. Going so far as to say china must resort the Marxist Lennon system of state craft at home and abroad.

Xi tells Communist Party security organs to prepare for ‘worst-case’ scenarios

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged top security officials of the ruling Communist Party this week to modernize the country’s national security system and warned them to be ready for “worst-case” scenarios amid growing tensions with the United States.

www.washingtontimes.com

 

[Totality 🇺🇦 🇮🇱]

During a world conflict, the great weakness of NATO would be its lack of soldiers

Not at all. Why we have superior highly accurate weapons and systems to overcome the Russian brute ill-equipped numbers.

We could flatten Russian assets, goverment, and military installations without nukes in a day. Without a single boot on the ground.