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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS

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Irag8er said:

Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine | Russia Matters

www.russiamatters.org www.russiamatters.org

Interesting article .......long......not really anything new,
but it does a good job of laying out what could possibly be
Putin’s “thought process” concerning the use of nukes.
I found the summation both thought provokin
Click to expand...

Ok so I don't think for one second, Putin will use a tactical weapon in Ukraine. He doesn't just want it back under the Russian flag, he wants the wealth of the natural resources and trade access. He won't want to irradiate that. But what if he used a strategic on say, Finland. Now, we all know that we can't respond in kind, because anyone over 40 knows we fire ours, he fires his at the same time. Game over. So what would we do? Risk all out conflict, ( not even a risk but a certainty imho), or destroy his Black Sea fleet and hope for the best? That's why I don't think MAD actually works. If someone is literally mad enough to fire one, what does the other side do? Destroy the human race or back off and try and isolate the enemy and live with it? Just a layman's opinion of course but something I don't see discussed often.
 
Irag8er said:

Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine | Russia Matters

www.russiamatters.org www.russiamatters.org

Interesting article .......long......not really anything new,
but it does a good job of laying out what could possibly be
Putin’s “thought process” concerning the use of nukes.
I found the summation both thought provoking and alarming:
Click to expand...
It's a thought provoking article, but the part I don't agree with is "7 billion people will go about their business physically unaffected by nuclear weapons".

That doesn't make sense. In a nuclear war, Europe is 10 minutes away, the US is 30 minutes away. There's no difference at all really. If a single nuke is exploded in Ukraine, the entire Northern Hemisphere goes into panic mode, and it seems like NATO is more likely to enter the war at that point with a conventional strike than to sit back and let it happen and essentially normalize tactical nuclear weapon use. That would lead to a direct standoff between NATO and Russia, which could resolve itself several different ways including an exchange of nuclear strikes against military targets followed by a cease-fire, a full nuclear war, NATO successfully causing Putin to back down without using strategic nukes, or NATO backing down itself (the least likely).

So I don't see a situation where nuke use in Ukraine becomes normalized and the rest of the world goes about its business while Europe cowers in fear. This lessens but doesn't eliminate the chance of Putin using nukes, since he has to know a full nuclear exchange comes in play once he does so.
 
Theodosius19 said:
If a single nuke is exploded in Ukraine, the entire Northern Hemisphere goes into panic mode
Click to expand...
Oh yea. If a nuke anywhere goes off even just 1 (in a attack). That will lead to the breakdown of society in the west. Everyone will panic. It will be pure anachry.

People will likly kill for the last bit of food/water left in stores once people raid them clean in a frenzy panic. Just utter chaos will consume.

With social media it will only make the chaos much, much worse.
 
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jealousmelon said:
Ok so I don't think for one second, Putin will use a tactical weapon in Ukraine. He doesn't just want it back under the Russian flag, he wants the wealth of the natural resources and trade access. He won't want to irradiate that. But what if he used a strategic on say, Finland. Now, we all know that we can't respond in kind, because anyone over 40 knows we fire ours, he fires his at the same time. Game over. So what would we do? Risk all out conflict, ( not even a risk but a certainty imho), or destroy his Black Sea fleet and hope for the best? That's why I don't think MAD actually works. If someone is literally mad enough to fire one, what does the other side do? Destroy the human race or back off and try and isolate the enemy and live with it? Just a layman's opinion of course but something I don't see discussed often.
Click to expand...
Finland is NATO now, so a strategic attack on them would invoke Article 5. My guess is NATO would respond with a crushing conventional response against Russian military assets. What Russia does next is anyone's guess.
 
Theodosius19 said:
If a single nuke is exploded in Ukraine, the entire Northern Hemisphere goes into panic mode
Click to expand...
I would have to agree with this. I can't even begin to imagine what would happen.

This is why we keep telling people again and again and again to stock up now while supplies are available. You don't want to be caught in the crunch when the mobs come in a blind panic.
 
william said:

Russia arrests hypersonic missile engineers​


These arrests were made public in an open letter from the staff of RAS Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, published on May 16.

According to the letter, Valery Zvegintsev, head of the aerodynamics lab of at the institute, has been arrested on charges of high treason.

"The past year has seen the arrest of three prominent aerodynamics scientists at our institute – Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk, and Valery Zvegintsev – on suspicion of committing a crime under the graves article the Criminal Code – high treason," the letter reads.

Click to expand...
If I was a russian Engineer, I would think at least twice, before inventing something for the Kremlin. Way too risky.

At a point they are running out of capable Personnel (like the former Soviet Union).
 
Well nothing like being consistent with his bombastic rhetoric. He’s been saying stuff like this since April 2022.

It highlights desperation in the survival of the old guard elites in Russia. Not the rank and file or Russia itself. Russia would not end. The Russian leadership and oligarchs would end.

Nothing like declaring, you better - you better - you bet, have our way.
Not that they can win conventionally so we’ll invade another nation because we’re paranoid. And everyone knows we’re paranoid and they should account for that and let us have our way. Because we’re paranoid!!

He is willing to repeatedly proclaim we’ll destroy the whole world if we can’t have our way. As he sets on the kitchen floor and bangs his head against the cabinet while holding his breath like a spoiled child.

This changes everything maybe it’s the west who needs to start seriously talking about a decapitation first strike.
I mean if Russia is going to continually talk about escalating a conventional war they can’t win to nukes. Well how the hell should the west respond?
Let the power hungry children have their way.

Maybe Russia leadership and pontificators will get the message that using threat of nuclear war as a tool of blackmail to expand their boarders is not such a good idea.
Or maybe their serious and a decapitation first strike is called for. What the hell their threatening the whole world with nukes.

Yes I’m being sarcastic - but only to a point.
Maybe a little bombastic rhetoric is called for.
 
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Prigozhin's mouthpiece channel admin GREY ZONE watches a video by the 3rd Assault brigade assaulting a Russian defensive position near Bakhmut which resulted in 300m of progress in 16 minutes. Unable to understand how the enemy [Ukrainians] can calmly send vehicles and infantry to walk along the woodline, meanwhile if Russians tried the same anywhere, they'd be burned on the approach.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659197340111220738
 
Seriously said:
It is somewhat significant . A response to Russian nuclear posturing .
Click to expand...
Correct. But think it should be done regardless. NATO is after all a defensive alliance and if you don't have a defensive plan what good is it?

This is a good thing. Also don't think of it as a escalation but a natural step to make NATO relevant or workable again.
 
Spyglass said:
Anyone seen this yet???
https://twitter.com/x/status/1659123217565376512

Can this be verified? Furthermore I am seeing rumors Russia is planning a surprise first strike (conventional) against the EU.
Click to expand...
While they may be correct, I see Terror Alarm as sensationalist reports. There is sufficient truth in each of their stories to cause critical thinking to kick in, as opposed to “aw what a bunch of horse hoey” reaction. They manage to find something, somewhere, every day, sometimes hourly to suggest that mass panic is appropriate. I find them to be <charitable mood> distracting. My2¢
 
alphaecho said:
Prigozhin's mouthpiece channel admin GREY ZONE watches a video by the 3rd Assault brigade assaulting a Russian defensive position near Bakhmut which resulted in 300m of progress in 16 minutes. Unable to understand how the enemy [Ukrainians] can calmly send vehicles and infantry to walk along the woodline, meanwhile if Russians tried the same anywhere, they'd be burned on the approach.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659197340111220738
Click to expand...
This open ongoing criticism by prigozhin of the Russian military and leadership in Moscow is a puzzle.
It could be disinformation. Wagner has been an appendage of Putin for years.

Or it could be an indication of growing dissatisfaction and or control of Russian leadership
 
Torcher said:
While they may be correct, I see Terror Alarm as sensationalist reports. There is sufficient truth in each of their stories to cause critical thinking to kick in, as opposed to “aw what a bunch of horse hoey” reaction. They manage to find something, somewhere, every day, sometimes hourly to suggest that mass panic is appropriate. I find them to be <charitable mood> distracting. My2¢
Click to expand...
It's confirmed @Torcher via Reuters.
👇
https://twitter.com/x/status/1659140749731024898
 
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Totality said:
It's confirmed @Torcher via Reuters.
👇
https://twitter.com/x/status/1659140749731024898
Click to expand...
Oh, its confirmed that Russia is about to conduct first strikes on Poland and Germany? I missed that.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1659123217565376512
I said thery may be right but they ALWAYS have explosive breaking news. Just once I’d like to see them say nothing much happened today or even “Some Russian got shot by a Ukrainian farmer because he was a dumb ass…”

I didnt say they were wrong. In fact I said the may be correct. They are just distracting and blurring up the landscape. IMHO. YMMV 😇
IMG_6706.png
That is the tweet, just below the NATO WarPlanning tweet.
 
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