UA-RU-NATO | Oct 6th-20th | REPORTS

[krzepice1976]

One week after the strike against the Kerch Bridge, the Russian government is slowly admitting that the damage was far worse than they initially claimed. They say now that it will take until July 2023 to fix the bridges. If Ukraine does not interfere.. #Ukraine #Kerch #Crimea

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581174951175806976

 

[krzepice1976]

This assessment was 100%, a month before Russia invaded Ukraine. Current Russian deployments into Belarus and the creation of the regional grouping of forces to protect the Union State are also likely deception activities.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581359309673283584

 

[Irag8er]

Russian ministry of defense: two citizens committed a "terrorist act" and opened fire at a military training ground in Belgorod, Russia. 11 dead & 15 injured.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581368793179181056

 

[alphaecho]

According to him, Russia is transferring dual-equipped Iskander-M systems to Belarus and re-equipping some Belarusian Su-25 aircraft with the technical capability to carry nuclear weapons. 2/6

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581211664586010625

 

[alphaecho]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581368793179181056

More Info

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581359666642046977

 

[watcher11]

Can any one confirm this??

️ ️ RUSSIA’S ALLIES: During the middle of the night Saturday, China told citizens to leave. Kazakhstan is closing embassy.

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Serbia already have told citizens to go.

Tajikistan and Belarussian websites don’t work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581427728422559745

 

[intel-bank]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581345747777179651

 

[Irag8er]

Can any one confirm this??

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581427728422559745

Can any one confirm this??

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581427728422559745

More Info

With the current grim security situation in #Ukraine, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese Embassy in Ukraine on Sat urge Chinese citizens in the country to enhance safety precautions and evacuate. The Embassy will assist in organizing the evacuation of people in need.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581287890377617409

 

[Irag8er]

TARGET KYIV? Reports from diplomatic and local sources indicate that Tajikistan, Kazakstan and China have urged their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. On 11 OCT, Reuters reported that Belarus and Russian forces had grouped on UKR's borders as a 'defensive measure'.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581437200155414528

 

[alphaecho]

BREAKING: Egypt is urging its citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581445168040853504

 

[alphaecho]

https://africainnews.com/embajada-egipcia-en-kiev-urge-a-los-nacionales-a-salir-lo-pronto-posible/

 

[Travis The Dragon]

So with this call to leave or evacuate does this count as number 17 on the escalation ladder now?

No, it does not. I had a similar question related to Ukraine's evacuations early the war. Per the book, the evacuation would be between the nuclear powers. I would broaden that, but still would suggest it should be thought of in terms of the belligerents.
Third parties asking their citizens to get out is not strongly relevant to escalation ladder.

If Belarus orders a mass evacuation of Belarussians, then perhaps can revisit.

Edit to add: Number 17 is also 20% of population. . . . There is no way that threshold is getting hit by Chinese and Kazak warnings.

It’s something to watch also reading your post it occurred to me that escalation models are by nature limited in flexibility. There built for possible perceived threats. But as we have seen there is no in-depth modeling for this particular situation.
The moves could be in relation to a conventional escalation.
At this point I still see it as a feint to divide Ukraines attention and forces.

Please remember what DarkNoon said about keeping discussions in the proper thread.

 

[Irag8er]

16-october-34-mig31-fighters-empty-with-no-missiles-have

3-4 MiG-31 fighters (empty with no missiles) have been spotted over Minsk​

 

[Irag8er]

Iran could be sending the Fateh-110 missile to Russia Iran used this missile to strike Kurdish dissidents in Iraq in 2018 and to carry out the attacks on US military bases in Iraq after Soleimani's death in 2020

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581603792067629057

 

[Irag8er]

Belgorod in Russia today, which is gradually turning into a frontline city in this war. Reports that the airport has been heavily damaged in strikes this morning.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581585013295890433

 

[alphaecho]

16-octubre-34-mig31-cazas-vacios-sin-misiles-tienen

Se han visto 3-4 cazas MiG-31 (vacíos y sin misiles) sobre Minsk​

More Info

Fighters have been detected flying over Minsk for more than 20 minutes, with approach landing at Machulishchy airfield.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581597928816545792

 

[alphaecho]

Russia has started transferring military planes and helicopters to Belarus, which will make up the aviation component of the regional grouping of troops, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reports.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581630686426865664

 

[Irag8er]

BREAKING: Belarus says that just under 9,000 Russian troops will arrive in the country as part of the "regional grouping" of forces to protect its borders. - Reuters

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581630308423979009

 

[alphaecho]

Massive Amounts of Russian Armor and Personnel have reportedly been observed arriving by Aircraft/Trains across Belarus over the last several days, while Russian Combat Aircraft have been spotted over multiple Cities in Country for the first time in months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581628973401853952

9000 Russian troops have already arrived in Belarus

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581628807265812480

 

[alphaecho]

In response to Surovikin's missile attacks on Belgorod, Russian Lapin troops mined all landings in the Belgorod región.

In the Shebekinsky urban district, a man stepped on a mine, as a result of which his foot was torn off. The ambulance took him to the hospital. All necessary medical assistance is provided. ⠀ Dear residents of the region! As a result of previous shelling, it is now dangerous in the forests of the Belgorod region. I ask you to refrain from visiting forest belts in all border municipalities.

В Шебекинском городском округе
мужчина наступил на мину, в результате чего ему оторвало ступню. Бригада скорой помощи доставила его в больницу. Вся необходимая медицинская помощь оказывается.
⠀
Уважаемые жители области! В результате предыдущих обстрелов в лесах Белгородской области сейчас опасно. Прошу вас воздержаться от посещения лесополос во всех приграничных муниципалитетах.