UA-RU War | NATO Crisis | REPORTS

[Publius]

Where was service reported as "back to normal" on the 15th? As of 15 hours ago, Zelensky reiterated that service has not been restored.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2113677048354947180

Ukraine's Starlink and Starshield satellite services — critical tools in its war against Russia that were unexpectedly throttled this week — have been restored to full capacity, a Ukrainian official tells Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2026/10/15/ukraine-starlink-restored-strikes-russia-trump-musk

Zelinski has since reported that services are completely back to normal with no apparent throttling of services.

Starshield operations restored to normal speed, Zelensky confirms

"We record a speed of more than 400 kilometers per hour, the connection is stable," the ministry said.

kyivindependent.com

So there was reporting that services had mostly been returned to normal by the 15th and as of this morning Ukrainian time service were completely back.

 

[Publius]

My personal opinion is that the USA with the tacit approval of the EU (ie they dont publicly complain) is leaning hard into the UA to accept that the Crimean is lost to them (reality) and negotiate accordingly. Remeber this is still a tremendous upset by Ukraine against the Russians.

Russia rolled in on Kiev and parachuted troops to the capital and attemting to capture Zelenskyy and wrap things up.
Instead the Ukraine met Russia with a mailed fist, and delivered a beat down unseen since WW2. Well of one million Russian were killed or wounded and The Ukraine still has the right to exist.

The US has never lost a war militarily. Usually we lose interest on move on.
Russia has made the French defeat at Dien Bien Phu look like a mild forces realignment. The west will not help him push towards the Crimean. Right or wrong Russia has placed it under her nuclear umbrella.

Anyways thats my tea leave reading: Lean on a recalcitrance Zelenskyy to negotiate for peace, but without the Crimean.

I tend to agree and am reminded of the reporting and consensus at the outset of the invasion. To how it soon changed when Ukraine was able to stop and turn the deep Russian incursions around especially those approaching Kiev.
There was a noticeable shift in stated public goals in and for Ukraine in April of 22. After the Bucha graves were exposed and Russias advance on Kiev face planted so spectacularly. Talk in the West and Ukraine stopped being about salvaging what was left through resistance and negotiations. And became about defeating Russia completely.

You’re also right I think that in totality Ukraine has mostly been a failure for Russia.
It’s seems like a classic case where both sides began believing their own propaganda. Russia would easily reoccupy all of Ukraine. And for Ukraine and the west Russia could be driven back to prewar lines.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

And for Ukraine and the west Russia could be driven back to prewar lines.

If the West would properly commit and stop throttling Ukraine, that could have been more likely. Not assured, but there is no question that Ukraine is fighting harder than it needs to due to the restrictions that have been placed on it.

 

[GBS61]

Ukraine has mostly been a failure for Russia.

As of now, neither failure nor victory... it is not over yet...

 

[Publius]

If the West would properly commit and stop throttling Ukraine, that could have been more likely. Not assured, but there is no question that Ukraine is fighting harder than it needs to due to the restrictions that have been placed on it.

Absolutely no disagreement from me on this. This truth however does not change reality that there is not the political will to do what is necessary to allow this to happen. Not with the current US president not with close to a majority of Americans. And certainly the same results are found in Europe.

As far as throttling Ukraine what exactly does that mean. Restricting intel, disrupting or slowing data links. Or does it also include not fully enacting and enforcing real and total sanctions against Russia.
Or does it also include committing to and actually delivering an unrestricted flow of arms and aid to Ukraine. Or might it also require a direct commitment of military intervention.

If it’s just data and intel how long might that take to work?
If it’s arms and aid how long and how much is that commitment supposed to cost.

 

[Ben Dhyani]

Elon sets the record straight.....
Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be. Starshield, a different system, is controlled by the US government. What they decide to do is up to them. Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2114063986744275011

 

[william]

Musk Ordered Starlink Slowdown That Blindsided Ukraine​

Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of a military-grade version of Starlink relied on by Ukraine, a decision that sparked panic in Kyiv and confusion inside the Trump administration, U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter said.
Musk and Trump discussed the Starlink decision in a call soon after the slowdown became public.
One of the people also claimed Musk and Trump discussed the matter prior to the decision to throttle Starlink.
During the uproar, SpaceX representatives called White House counterparts seeking a unified understanding and subsequent message that the company and Trump administration coordinated ahead of Musk’s directive.
Some U.S. officials say that Musk acted unilaterally and that Trump didn’t specifically order any retribution against Ukraine. But a person familiar with the situation said Musk talked to multiple senior administration officials, including with Trump, before imposing the new speed cap.

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraine-starlink-elon-musk-trump-dbc49193?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Zelenskyy Admits Ukraine Was Using Starlink For Drone Warfare“Starshield is a military version of Starlink … We found a way to destroy Iranian jet drones … with our interceptors, new drones, which we are using with quick speed by Starlink.”

Looks like to me that Ukraine hacked Starlink for military use and Musk wasn't having it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2114148455744409624

 

[william]

While Donald Trump seeks closer relations with Vladimir Putin, the CIA is reportedly intensifying its operations against Russia and helping Ukraine strike targets deep inside Russian territory. Behind Washington’s diplomatic overtures, America’s intelligence war against Moscow appears to be growing more aggressive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2113953848704299313

Carrot and Stick?

• The post by @visionergeo summarizes a recent Atlantic article detailing CIA Director John Ratcliffe's agency providing Ukraine with intelligence for deep strikes inside Russia and early warnings on missiles/drones, amid Trump's push for closer Putin ties.
• Baltic and U.S. sources cited indicate CIA operations in Ukraine are now more aggressive than during the Biden era, with the agency leading U.S. efforts on the ground to support Kyiv's precision targeting of Russian assets like oil refineries.
• The commentary underscores policy tensions in Washington, where ongoing intelligence cooperation bolsters Ukraine's battlefield position even as diplomatic pressure grows for a negotiated settlement. Grok

recent Atlantic article detailing CIA Director John Ratcliffe's agency providing Ukraine with intelligence for deep strikes inside Russia - Bing

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[RiffRaff]

Just deleted several comments that were way off topic and in a Reports thread. Let's tighten things up, people. My personal rule of thumb: A single sentence comment in a Reports thread I can ignore. A paragraph belongs in the Analysis/Discussion thread.