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Ukraine military events

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willrod1989 said:
Are we still under the assumption that any kinetic action will remain limited to Ukraine? As far as I am aware, NATO is not getting involved? I don't know why this keeps feeling like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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So far, NATO is still staying out of it.
 
willrod1989 said:
Are we still under the assumption that any kinetic action will remain limited to Ukraine? As far as I am aware, NATO is not getting involved? I don't know why this keeps feeling like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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It's not the CMC. If Russia limits itself to SE Ukraine, NATO won't do anything. I'm less sure of that position if they attempt to take all of Ukraine. But for now, we're nowhere close to where we were in '62.
 
willrod1989 said:
Are we still under the assumption that any kinetic action will remain limited to Ukraine? As far as I am aware, NATO is not getting involved? I don't know why this keeps feeling like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Because the media is playing it up, and it’s the first time we’ve seen Russia do anything this big since the end of the Cold War. Plus, we now have the ability to see quite literally everything they’re doing.

It’s always scary when no one wants to listen to eachother.
 
willrod1989 said:
Are we still under the assumption that any kinetic action will remain limited to Ukraine? As far as I am aware, NATO is not getting involved? I don't know why this keeps feeling like the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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It feels so because of the extensive and overheated media coverage. Not saying there is nothing to watch, but the scope of the coverage is not on par with anything happened in this region since 1992. During the active stage of war there were far less media campaigns than we have now, with near zero actual combat on the front (with the exception of today).
 
TruthandJustice said:
They are going to invade. The only question is when and where. Putin doesn’t play games. He said Ukraine and NATO would be a red line and he meant it. We are already past the point of no return. When neither side wants to give, you have war.
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We'll only know if they're going to invade once they've invaded. Putin has been playing games his whole time in power. Every major power necessarily has to as part of foreign policy.
 
RiffRaff said:
It's not the CMC. If Russia limits itself to SE Ukraine, NATO won't do anything. I'm less sure of that position if they attempt to take all of Ukraine. But for now, we're nowhere close to where we were in '62.
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That's somewhat reassuring. As tragic as a war in Ukraine would be, a full scale nuclear conflict is horrifying. I've been in some violent areas of South America where I've had some very close calls, but this frightens me more.
 
Private Hope said:
It feels so because of the extensive and overheated media coverage. Not saying there is nothing to watch, but the scope of the coverage is not on par with anything happened in this region since 1992. During the active stage of war there were far less media campaigns than we have now, with near zero actual combat on the front (with the exception of today).
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It was a different world when perception management on both sides was easier, in the 90s. With the internet and social media if you don't blanket every media with rhetoric it won't be consistently heard without contrast.
 
RiffRaff said:
It's not the CMC. If Russia limits itself to SE Ukraine, NATO won't do anything. I'm less sure of that position if they attempt to take all of Ukraine. But for now, we're nowhere close to where we were in '62.
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Tbh, more and more I think it's going to be mainly focused on the Donbas. Obviously, the propaganda is pointing towards the Donbas and how there are "injustices" being done there. My opinion at this point is that they'll move troops into the occupied Donbas, at some point. What the Ukranians do after that is up for anyone's guess.

I imagine, in this scenerio, that the other forces around Ukraine are more of a threat. Don't do anything, and we won't invade.

Of course, won't know till it happens, just one scenerio and one I feel is becoming more likely as disinformation comes out.
 
RiffRaff said:
It's not the CMC. If Russia limits itself to SE Ukraine, NATO won't do anything. I'm less sure of that position if they attempt to take all of Ukraine. But for now, we're nowhere close to where we were in '62.
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This is easy to miss because of all the anxiety around in the public, understandably.
 
I was going to ask how this all feels compared to Russia invading Georgia in 2008. It feels like this is so much more stressful though the conditions are basically the same with both UKR/GEO dealing with pro-RF separatists, and the RF moving in for potential "peacekeeping".
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Yeah, it doesn't look good when they keep crying "Invasion today!" "No, invasion today." "No, invasion today!"

Of course, Russia isn't helping things by doing everything they can to look like they are actually going to invade again.
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So WHY ARE the media and WH in our faces screaming invasion instead of things to calm the situation? It’s like poking the bear… even if he wasn’t going to, he will now, and it could be much worse. I’d like to think there’s some grand plan behind it that we don’t know, but…?
 
Soldiereye said:
So WHY ARE the media and WH in our faces screaming invasion instead of things to calm the situation? It’s like poking the bear… even if he wasn’t going to, he will now, and it could be much worse. I’d like to think there’s some grand plan behind it that we don’t know, but…?
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The media like it because it causes people to watch/read/click on them.

The government likes it because Biden is old school and sees the Soviets (yes, he still sees the Soviet Union) as the bad guy.

If the U.S. had a younger President, like Obama when Russia invaded Ukraine the last time, you'd be seeing a different reaction.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
The media like it because it causes people to watch/read/click on them.

The government likes it because Biden is old school and sees the Soviets (yes, he still sees the Soviet Union) as the bad guy.

If the U.S. had a younger President, like Obama when Russia invaded Ukraine the last time, you'd be seeing a different reaction.
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I do wish america would stop electing dinosaurs
 
Soldiereye said:
So WHY ARE the media and WH in our faces screaming invasion instead of things to calm the situation? It’s like poking the bear… even if he wasn’t going to, he will now, and it could be much worse. I’d like to think there’s some grand plan behind it that we don’t know, but…?
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Yeah but I think we’re seeing the same thing out of Russia. Escalation of demands to the west over the last two months. “Finding” mass graves and genocide after 8 years? Convoluting stingers and Javelins with offensive weapons threatening Russian territory.
The propaganda narrative is just as crucial and fluid part of a conflict as the kinetic planned or used.
“are our own people on board? Are we weakening the enemy’s resolve? Are we shaping the worlds opinion in a favorable towards us.” Hearts and minds are both at once a positive and a pejorative. The internet has exponentially complicated the battle of the narrative.
 
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DEFCON Warning System said:
The media like it because it causes people to watch/read/click on them.

The government likes it because Biden is old school and sees the Soviets (yes, he still sees the Soviet Union) as the bad guy.

If the U.S. had a younger President, like Obama when Russia invaded Ukraine the last time, you'd be seeing a different reaction.
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My impression is that this is all part of the information war. We want Russia to suspect leaks and be paranoid. We also want to preempt and get in front of any illegitimate casus belli. Plus, I think "old" Europe (as Mr. Rumsfeld would say) needs to be jolted out of their complacency
 
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