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us iran conflict high likely in 2017

krzepice1976

Power Poster IV
Joined
Sep 20, 2016
In conversations today w/2 former senior US national security officials both rated prospect of conflict w/Iran this year as "highly likely."
https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/829896369175400449
 
krzepice1976 said:
In conversations today w/2 former senior US national security officials both rated prospect of conflict w/Iran this year as "highly likely."
https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/829896369175400449
Obama administration officials. Unsurprising. Still, certainly worth keeping in mind. I can't imagine that the United States would engage Iran in full-scale war though. Iran would be the most powerful country fought by America since WWII. Iran's terrain, air defense network and myriad other factors would make such a conflict miserable for everyone involved. Even if America engaged Iran in only a limited air campaign, US would still have to contend with Iran's air defenses. Both USAF and USN would have to be prepared to take losses, both in aircraft and warships. This is to say nothing of the losses and expenses involved in a ground war. Even if the "conflict" was extremely limited, after Jimmy Carter every POTUS must be terrified by the prospect of a war with Iran, on some level. Even attacking Iranian forces in only Syria would run a considerable risk of a rapidly widening conflict.

I think you'd have to be prepared for a potential full-scale war with Iran should you attack them, to include potential utilization of nuclear weapons. One would also have to be prepared for war with Iran's allies, namely Russia and China. I can't imagine any limited objectives being worth that non-zero risk. Far from non-zero if you intend to actually accomplish something meaningful.
 
Correct strike (by US) mean full wcale conflict.
Proxy war likę saudi vs iran has much probility to scalate.
A case when us will help defend saudi arabia shall reduce chance involving china and russia.
Practicaly war shall be started by saudi arabia
They ask for help.us shall limit his avtion to defensive actions( but air strike on ground are possible).
 
krzepice1976 said:
Correct strike (by US) mean full wcale conflict.
Proxy war likę saudi vs iran has much probility to scalate.
A case when us will help defend saudi arabia shall reduce chance involving china and russia.
Practicaly war shall be started by saudi arabia
They ask for help.us shall limit his avtion to defensive actions( but air strike on ground are possible).
Saudi Arabia is suffering severe financial troubles, resulting in large part from the Saudi war in Yemen. I'm not sure that the Saudi military can fight a two-front war, and I'm not sure that the Saudi economy could sustain both wars, especially if Iran engages in successful interdiction. For Saudi Arabia to lead the effort against Iran would be to risk the collapse of the House of Saud. What's more, Saudi Arabia recently remarked that it desired for America to lead the effort against ISIS, and Iran. I can only conclude that Saudi Arabia would at best play a minor supporting role. Even a minor support role may risk the collapse of the House of Saud, however.
 
I'm not surprised with Mad Dog having a seat at the table. The real question is who makes the first move? Just In Iranians chant "death to America" apart of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Not sure if that escalates things.
 
I'm still holding out for an Iran-Saudi war. If the oil wars get worse, insolvency happens, and war becomes the stimulus package to fix it all. The strait of Hormuz will affect us, and Yemen would affect SA. With a little Russian support, they can really stick it to us through a proxy war. Iran has made it known that they want to be a major player on the world scene, we'll see to what lengths they'll go.
 
ThunderStealer said:
I'm still holding out for an Iran-Saudi war. If the oil wars get worse, insolvency happens, and war becomes the stimulus package to fix it all. The strait of Hormuz will affect us, and Yemen would affect SA. With a little Russian support, they can really stick it to us through a proxy war. Iran has made it known that they want to be a major player on the world scene, we'll see to what lengths they'll go.
The Russians would like nothing better than for Saudi Arabia to give the Bear a reason to bomb Saudi oil fields.
 
PeacePlease said:
I'm not surprised with Mad Dog having a seat at the table. The real question is who makes the first move? Just In Iranians chant "death to America" apart of the 1979 Islamic revolution. Not sure if that escalates things.

No that's more like a Memorial Day parade for them.
 
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