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US - Iran - Israel | Hostilities May Breakout Shortly | Feb. 2nd-28th | Discussions

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DEFCON Warning System said:
That said, Ukraine is doing much better than anyone thought going against Russia.
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NuclearID said:
Recall before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? A lot of people treated them like the big bad wolf. Instead, we’ve watched a hollowed out force show up, and it’s raised real questions about maintenance, readiness, and what “on paper” capability actually means. Yes, Russia has working nuclear weapons, but “how many are reliable and ready” is a question people ask out loud now.
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Same thing with Iran. We/Israel already fought them once. Safe to say they are not a formidable power. Again, can't even defend its airspace for less than a hour and doesn't have a piloted Air Force to speak of.
 
RiffRaff said:
Islamic factions have historically united to defeat a common enemy.
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Saudi Arabia is not friends with Iran. Opening diplomatic ties and embassies doesn't mean the Saudis trust the Iranians. SA may not let the US launch strikes from their territories, and SA may even protest any attack. But behind the scenes, Saudi Arabia would be happy if Iran fell.
 
NuclearID said:
Same thing with Iran. We/Israel already fought them once. Safe to say they are not a formidable power. Again, can't even defend its airspace for less than a hour and doesn't have a piloted Air Force to speak of.
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They do have the ability to create some havoc in the Strait with drones. Everyone is seeing how effective they are in the Ukraine war.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Venezuela certainly did not have cutting edge technology. Whoever goes up against Russia and China directly will face more formidable systems.

That said, Ukraine is doing much better than anyone thought going against Russia.
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I don't always say things the right way. I was responding to both DEFCON Warning System & NuclearID. Russia and China COULD be playing the weak card but be more powerful...but then again they could be "boobs" for all I know. And yes, I also think both Russia and China have better equipment, technology, espionage, and training and have been holding back the "good stuff."

I hope I didn't offend anyone.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
They do have the ability to create some havoc in the Strait with drones. Everyone is seeing how effective they are in the Ukraine war.
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Until they run out and can't make anymore. Unlike Russia who has its factories in tact and can make more. Most if not all of Iran's advanced inventory is strictly temporary in any wider war with the West. Once depleted they can't/won't be able to make anymore or fast enough.

👉I mean, it would be crazy for people to think US/Israel would not hit drone/missile factories in Iran when the fighting starts so once they depleted them, that's it, no more.

This is why you cannot compare it to Russia. As Russian industry hasn't been crippled (nor can it by Ukraine) unlike how Iran's will be in a larger/broader war making it unable to make more drones/missiles. At least not enough to make a difference long term.
 
Linking my discussion thread around a DEFCON Forecast for Iran, and discussion of what threshold triggers what. I think it got moved to General Discussion, so I wanted to make sure it's visible.

Spyglass

Thread 'Iran Tensions - DEFCON Escalation Thresholds (DISCUSSION)'

This thread is to discuss what criteria or particular "trigger" events would be required in order to escalate the DEFCON level past 4 (BLUE) within the Middle Eastern Theatre.

As it stands currently, we are at DEFCON 4 due to heightened tensions in the region, and the likely eventuality of all-out war taking place. There is current suspicion of the Iranians possessing a highly limited inventory of nuclear devices. While the means of delivery are highly limited, and miniaturization is currently NOT a capability the Iranians are thought to possess, it is not likely that a nation state such...
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When what will happen is hard to say. Don't equate the US’s military capability to destroy Irans military with a preferred geopolitical outcome.
We could militarily trounce the IRGC no question. Would that alone bring about regime change? Probably NOT.

Remember there is currently a pro Shia gov in Iraq. Are we just going to chase them to Iraq? Starting to see why this all seems like Groundhog Day.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Venezuela certainly did not have cutting edge technology. Whoever goes up against Russia and China directly will face more formidable systems.

That said, Ukraine is doing much better than anyone thought going against Russia.
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hey, maybe if in the Iran attacks, airstrikes take out all production centers for shaheds and other drone misdle systems,
maybe that’ll end the supply line to the Russian war on Ukraine🤔
 
Lostpuppy said:
maybe that’ll end the supply line to the Russian war on Ukraine🤔
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Russia makes its own drones now. They essentially reverse engineered Iran drones. So losing Iran wouldn't effect Russian military output by any means. Russia started making their own version awhile ago and have now almost gone entirely in-house production.
 
Here is an assessment from Ryan McBeth proposing that we may not see a strike on Iran until Feb 25 to Feb 27 or in mid March. He considers arrival of the Ford, moon cycles, and Ramadan. I guess we'll see what happens. Stay tuned....

 
The US and Israels unprovoked attack once again coming soon will definitely cause a very different response from Iran this time around. Impo regional war will result. Irans patience was bound to run out eventually. Seriously some countries refuse to accept and learn even with decades of attempts .🙄🤦‍♂️🤷‍♂️
 
Does anyone know israels nuclear targets ? And amount of nuclear weapons? Considering no one could sensibly answer my question on aircraft carrier crew rescue situation hopefully these 2 questions maybe a little less challenging
 
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Yingyang said:
Does anyone know israels nuclear targets ? And amount of nuclear weapons? Considering no one could sensibly answer my question on aircraft carrier crew rescue situation hopefully these 2 questions maybe a little less challenging
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Probably reasonable to assume Tehran. Israel’s entire nuclear arsenal is so secretive it’s hard to tell for sure though. Can’t see it getting to the point Israel would feel the need to use them though.
 
Yingyang said:
Does anyone know israels nuclear targets ? And amount of nuclear weapons? Considering no one could sensibly answer my question on aircraft carrier crew rescue situation hopefully these 2 questions maybe a little less challenging
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Unless Iran uses a nuke on Israel, Israel won't use a nuke on Iran.

The ME isn't going to gang up on Israel if the US attacks Iran. The ME hates Iran.
 
Snowfall said:
Probably reasonable to assume Tehran. Israel’s entire nuclear arsenal is so secretive it’s hard to tell for sure though. Can’t see it getting to the point Israel would feel the need to use them though.
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Personally i'm not so sure. I beleive Iran has the amount of missiles required to devastate israel to the point of panic enough to launch nukes at Iran. Iran hasn't used it's best missiles yet, only old stuff mostly just like western support for ukraine and russian responses mostly aswell. Everyone seems to be depleting old stock in conflicts first .
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
Unless Iran uses a nuke on Israel, Israel won't use a nuke on Iran.

The ME isn't going to gang up on Israel if the US attacks Iran. The ME hates Iran.
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So why are my questions so hard to directly answer ? I never suggested ME gang up on israel. My regional war comment is because i think irans target lists involve many ME countries due to US bases.
Question list again looking for direct answers to each without deflection.
1. Rescue plan for carrier sailors should it arise?
2. Amount of israeli nuclear weapons?
3. Possible israeli nuclear targets including outside of iran?
 
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