• Guests may view all public nodes. However, you must be registered to post.

US-Israel/Iran | Post CF Announcement | April 8th-19th | Analysis

Status
Not open for further replies.
Lostpuppy said:
The list includes the following:

- commitment not to attack;

- retention of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz;

- agreement to uranium enrichment;

- lifting of all primary sanctions;

- lifting of all secondary sanctions;

- invalidation of all UN Security Council resolutions;

- cancellation of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions;

- payment of compensation to Iran;

- withdrawal of US troops from the region;

- cessation of war on all fronts, including the war against “Hezbollah” in Lebanon.
modern.az

Trump has agreed to Iran's 10 demands - CONDITIONS

US President Donald Trump stated on his Truth Social social network account that he accepted Iran's 10 demands before a two-week ceasefire.
modern.az modern.az
Click to expand...
#FakeNews

The US has not agreed to these terms. These terms are what Iran is wanting. Wanting and getting are two different things.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
#FakeNews

The US has not agreed to these terms. These terms are what Iran is wanting. Wanting and getting are two different things.
Click to expand...
Here is the proposed agreement:

But it is not clear; points 3, 4, 5, 8, and especially 9, should not be accepted by Israel and the USA. Points 3-10 will not be accepted by Israel.

1- The initial commitment of the United States to provide non-aggression guarantees;

2- The maintenance of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz;

3- The recognition of Iran's right to uranium enrichment;

4- The lifting of all primary sanctions;

5- The lifting of all secondary sanctions;

6- The cessation of resolutions against the Islamic Republic passed by the UN Security Council;

7- The termination of resolutions passed by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA);

8- The payment to Iran of the necessary compensation for the damages suffered;

9- The withdrawal of US military forces from the region;

10- A cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Lebanon not included in the truce, according to Israel.
Conflicting messages have circulated regarding Lebanon, where the Israeli army is conducting a bombing campaign against Hezbollah. The group had opened a front against the Jewish state in support of Iran, its patron.

In a message on X, the Prime Minister of Pakistan initially indicated that the ceasefire agreement included Lebanon.

Later that evening, however, Israeli media reported statements attributed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated that his country supports Donald Trump's decision to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks, but that the truce agreement does not include Lebanon.
 
GBS61 said:
Here is the proposed agreement:

But it is not clear; points 3, 4, 5, 8, and especially 9, should not be accepted by Israel and the USA. Points 3-10 will not be accepted by Israel.

1- The initial commitment of the United States to provide non-aggression guarantees;

2- The maintenance of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz;

3- The recognition of Iran's right to uranium enrichment;

4- The lifting of all primary sanctions;

5- The lifting of all secondary sanctions;

6- The cessation of resolutions against the Islamic Republic passed by the UN Security Council;

7- The termination of resolutions passed by the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA);

8- The payment to Iran of the necessary compensation for the damages suffered;

9- The withdrawal of US military forces from the region;

10- A cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Lebanon not included in the truce, according to Israel.
Conflicting messages have circulated regarding Lebanon, where the Israeli army is conducting a bombing campaign against Hezbollah. The group had opened a front against the Jewish state in support of Iran, its patron.

In a message on X, the Prime Minister of Pakistan initially indicated that the ceasefire agreement included Lebanon.

Later that evening, however, Israeli media reported statements attributed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who stated that his country supports Donald Trump's decision to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks, but that the truce agreement does not include Lebanon.
Click to expand...
What you need to understand is that for now, only a cessation of US-Israeli and Iranian attacks in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz has been agreed upon. The rest will be negotiated starting April 10, 2026, in Islamabad.
This is not a peace treaty; it's a two-week ceasefire.
 
I can't help but wonder if Iran's willingness to a cease fire after 2 months of opposition could really be viewed as a sign to the US and Israel not to stop pummeling them.

I'll ask, is it possible the regime/IRGC might think the infrastructure strikes threatened by Trump could weaken it too far, providing an opportunity for revolutionary change to germinate? The decision to cease fire might be an attempt to stop that from happening and allow the regime to keep control over what's left. If this is the case, I would say keep pummeling....

It could also just be another Iranian stall tactic to draw this conflict out and allow them to hold on closer to the mid terms with the hopes of a US electoral blue wave...

Then again the US might have agreed to a cease fire to see if the regime relaxes to allow intelligence mechanisms to relocate new leaders and target them for future..
uh... "enlightenment".

I'm not sure what to believe. I do find it interesting that Iran finally agreed to a cease fire, and I am curious what their motivation is...
 
teekay99 said:
I can't help but wonder if Iran's willingness to a cease fire after 2 months of opposition could really be viewed as a sign to the US and Israel not to stop pummeling them.

I'll ask, is it possible the regime/IRGC might think the infrastructure strikes threatened by Trump could weaken it too far, providing an opportunity for revolutionary change to germinate? The decision to cease fire might be an attempt to stop that from happening and allow the regime to keep control over what's left. If this is the case, I would say keep pummeling....

It could also just be another Iranian stall tactic to draw this conflict out and allow them to hold on closer to the mid terms with the hopes of a US electoral blue wave...

Then again the US might have agreed to a cease fire to see if the regime relaxes to allow intelligence mechanisms to relocate new leaders and target them for future..
uh... "enlightenment".

I'm not sure what to believe. I do find it interesting that Iran finally agreed to a cease fire, and I am curious what their motivation is...
Click to expand...
This isn’t a conflict either side is truly “winning.” The U.S. has the upper hand because they can do more damage to Iran’s infrastructure and keep killing leaders for a long time, but at the cost of increased oil prices and damage to regional allies. Iran on the other hand can probably continue drone strikes for a while but their economy will not hold out much longer so they will become a failed state.

War occurs when both sides believe they can get more out of fighting then they can out of negotiations, so if they can get more through negotiations than a continuation of the conflict they will stop the war.
 
Snowfall said:
This isn’t a conflict either side is truly “winning.” The U.S. has the upper hand because they can do more damage to Iran’s infrastructure and keep killing leaders for a long time, but at the cost of increased oil prices and damage to regional allies. Iran on the other hand can probably continue drone strikes for a while but their economy will not hold out much longer so they will become a failed state.

War occurs when both sides believe they can get more out of fighting then they can out of negotiations, so if they can get more through negotiations than a continuation of the conflict they will stop the war.
Click to expand...
Whats your take on Trumps 50% tariffs on anyone supplying Iran?
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
Likely to bring some kind of incentive toward Russia to stop supplying them.
Click to expand...
Iran signed a ceasefire last night and broke it before most Americans finished breakfast. But that’s not the story. The story is what Trump did while everyone was staring at the missiles. Everyone is asking the wrong question. The question isn’t “why did Iran break the ceasefire.” The answer to that is obvious. Iran has a political wing that wants to negotiate and a military wing that wants to die fighting. The IRGC operates 32 independent regional commands. The politicians signed the paper. The generals launched the missiles. Iran is a country negotiating with itself at gunpoint. Trump already knows this.
Click to expand...
This morning he posted that Iran has gone through “a very productive regime change.” He’s not angry about the broken ceasefire. He’s looking past the IRGC and talking directly to the political faction that’s still alive and desperate. Then, minutes later, he posted a 50 percent tariff on any country supplying weapons to Iran. He didn’t name China. He didn’t have to. Five Iranian ships left a Chinese port carrying sodium perchlorate, the chemical you need to make the solid rocket fuel inside every missile that just hit Kuwait. China trades $500 billion a year with the US. Russia trades under $500 million. The tariff isn’t about Russia. So: one hand offers Iran reconstruction money and sanctions relief. The other hand prices China out of the Iranian weapons pipeline. Two posts, two targets, one table.
Click to expand...
He just set the opening bid for a meeting with Xi Jinping.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/2041881010896245108
Click to expand...
 
@william
👉“He didn’t have to. Five Iranian ships left a Chinese port carrying sodium perchlorate, the chemical you need to make the solid rocket fuel inside every missile that just hit Kuwait. China trades $500 billion a year with the US. Russia trades under $500 million. The tariff isn’t about Russia.”

Can you clarify trade with Russia?
It looks like it may be more ??

United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers - 2026 Data 2027 Forecast 1992-2024 Historical

United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers was US$1.3 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Russia of Fertilizers - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2026.
tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com
 
Last edited:
I concur with this analysis. 👇
The ceasefire =▪︎ Two weeks to reload aircraft carriers
Click to expand...
▪︎ Replenishing Israel with interceptor missiles
Click to expand...
▪︎ Rearming bombers with heavy bombs
Click to expand...
▪︎ And freeing up Israel for southern Lebanon
Click to expand...
After that =▪︎ A surprise knockout strike before the ceasefire expires, ending what remains of the crumbling regime
Click to expand...
▪︎ Ground movement to tighten the grip on the capital Tehran
Click to expand...
▪︎ Supporting the rebels and toppling the regime from within
Click to expand...
▪︎ Seizing the enriched uranium and delivering it to the International Atomic Energy Agency
Click to expand...
▪︎ Securing international navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
Click to expand...
▪︎ And controlling the oil jewel "Kharg Island"
Click to expand...
The United States =▪︎ Controls the world's first oil reserve (Venezuela)▪︎
Click to expand...
Controls the world's third oil reserve (Iran)
Click to expand...
▪︎ Controls the world's fourth oil reserve (Iraq)
Click to expand...
America is fighting China, not just Iran
Click to expand...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom