Do you think Russia is probably stopping them? If China went to war with Taiwan there would be a sudden shortage of weapons for Russia to buy from China or exchange for gas/oil.
Just a passing thought.
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US, PRC, ROC | 2024
- Thread starter NuclearID
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Just a passing thought.
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- Jan 23, 2020
2025 is when they will do it. US elections may delay it depending on who is elected. North Korea started squawking for a reason. North Korea will be activated if U.S. intervenes in Taiwan. China probably made a deal to provide them with chip tech if they engage the U.S. in defense of the CCP. Too much is happening at once.
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Taiwan is the flashpoint for WW3. China doesn’t want to be the one to begin it in earnest.
Historians may look back and see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the first step, and while there is validity there, World War 2 started as a conflict with Germany and European states. Until Japan bombed Pearl Harbor, the war was mostly regional/continental at that point. Personally I see that as the true start of the true WORLD war.
So you see my point. Adding a nation like Taiwan and potentially Korea/China/US into this directly, it becomes a true world conflict.
China started COVID, which arguably was the first shot of WW3, and then they take Taiwan? The world historians will not look on China kindly. China cares about its image. They want to be provoked, and the U.S. needs to be distracted.
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The biggest problem with any potential invasion of Taiwan is China’s desire to grow into an economic powerhouse. The two goals can not be met consecutively at the current moment. If the past year has shown anything it’s that Chinas economy can not survive on domestic spending and if anything jeopardizes their ability to sell internationally then they will collapse. Will China eventually move in some form against Taiwan? Maybe, but I sincerely doubt it’s a full scale invasion id place my money on blockade or pressure campaign of some form.
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I would think Russia would be prodding them to attack. Would certainly divert attention from Ukraine.
But also dip into their weapons procurements from China. Can't imagine the weapons supply from Iran as of late have been any good if any given the frantic supply Iran has been trying to give to their terror proxies being decimated by israel.
So long as mistakes, misunderstandings, miscommunication, or overreaction doesn't occur on all sides. And uh last I checked where all human if you catch my drift. Heh.
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Honestly in terms of odds of a miscalculation I’d put this conflict on the lower end purely because any action taken by China is going to pretty overt. The only thing I would be worried is if the government of Taiwan becomes too pro independence but I don’t really see that happening because they’d rather maintain the status quo.
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I agree with you here. I think once the election is over we're in for either peace or war. I also think China's economy is faltering and they're planning on invading Taiwan at some point to bolster themselves. Time will tell tbh.
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Invading Taiwan thinking it would bolster China’s economy would be the ultimate miscalculation.
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China’s economy is already suffering. With a great sacrifice, a great long term reward awaits within Taiwan. They have limitless human capital. They can lose 100 million men and not break a sweat. As a matter of fact, China actually needs to thin the herd of men. They have a marriage problem, and a very imbalanced sex ratio. Chinese culture incentivizes a male child over a female child. Many single Chinese men with no prospects are great conscription targets.
This war would be a strategic net win for China long term. They have the capacity to win it.
Not with the US in its way. We have no choice but to protect ours and the rest of the west's microchips. You better believe we will step directly in.
Either we do directly protect Taiwan, or we might as well surrender to China the new Microchip overlord, yea see we will do whatever to make sure that does not occur. No wishy-washy stuff like Ukraine. I'm sure we made it clear we will step in, likly why they have not done anything.
Or at bare minimum we have a secret agreement with Taiwan to completely sabotage/destroy the Microchip industry in the country before letting it slip into CCP hands. Wouldn't be suprised if we (US) bombed the chip plants ourselves worst case scenario.
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NO MATTER how it plays out. I am certain China will not get its hands on the microchip industry intact AND MOST IMPORTANTLY Taiwan will be brain drained long before China takes the island.
All the people who know how to make, operate, and run a high end microchip industry in Tawain would flee to the United States or Europe and would recreate what they did in Taiwan in the United States or Europe. With I'm sure gracious funding from the Western governments to recreate what they did in Taiwan.
All the people who know how to make, operate, and run a high end microchip industry in Tawain would flee to the United States or Europe and would recreate what they did in Taiwan in the United States or Europe. With I'm sure gracious funding from the Western governments to recreate what they did in Taiwan.
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The microchip industry is the bonus if they can take the island quickly enough. A naval blockade to squeeze the island is a relatively sound strategy. The Chinese people are very…very patient. They are the longest standing empire on earth for a reason.
The island also poses a massive strategic advantage in the pacific. They have deep water access for submarines. They have the mountain which acts as a shield to radar, and the morale boost to the Chinese people to boot.
Ideologically, China believes that island is their own. It’s been a major CCP promise for decade to reunify. Yeah, we might step in, but a war in the South China Sea would be devastating for China. Your right. I don’t see China NOT taking the island by 2025 at this point.
The current regime that occupies China has zero historical connections to the great Chinese empires that once where. Although you couldn't tell by their
propaganda that often evokes FALSE historical and cultural connections to bolster its cruel modern-day authority..The communist party that occupies China does not play the long game nor understands it. If they did they would have never enacted the one child policy and be in the demographic situation they are in now.
Autocracies, communist regimes, dictatorships all alike they all think shortsighted. Look no further than Putin's 3-day special military operation. Laugh out loud.
It's one of the reasons why these types of governments are always doomed to fail as history has shown us time and again.
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You cannot hide something that massive. Just like how the United States knew before Russia invaded Ukraine weeks prior to the invasion. They can tell when a military drill is not a military drill just a prelude to invasion.
Guaranteed a week before China makes its move on Taiwan all of the important people will be out of there such as the chip manufacturing tycoons/ceo's and the people who know how to operate them, the people who know how to logistically make it happen, and so on.
They will do nice in America and Europe where both perspective governments will Fork over billions to their companies to establish operations in the States and Europe.
That is OF COURSE worst case scenario and US does nothing directly to stop a Chinese take over. We will bare minimum ANY situation get the people who know how to make high end chips and set up a new shop here. May take years and be catastrophic to our economy but we could do it... maybe...
And yes I am using the word occupied for a specific reason. BECAUSE the Chinese Communist Party holds the Chinese people prisoners and have no historical legitimacy as they falsely claim consistently.
Excuse my rant there about the Chinese communist party. Once I get started hard to stop. 
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Asymmetric war. They will not invade in any conventional manner. Simply wear them down until they can influence the domestic population or international community to cave and agree to control going to China.
Only exception to this is if the CCP is at risk of losing power. They might start a fight.
Only exception to this is if the CCP is at risk of losing power. They might start a fight.
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Nothing about a war over Taiwan is a win for China. They might want Taiwan back as a point of pride but one any benefit they would receive in the form of semiconductor manufacturing would be destroyed in the invasion and two Chinas military is still completely unproven this invasion wouldn’t be some cake walk even against Taiwan on their own let alone against the United States.
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