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US-PRC-ROC | DISCUSSIONS

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DarkNoon said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1649388224001736707
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The CCP did not win the war for control of Taiwan. Nor was Taiwan ceded to it so his proposition is faulty.
It’s more of a wish sandwich than a territorial or geographic fact.

If the CCP wants Taiwan they can act in a way that might encourage ROC to reunite or take it by force.
But pravda bulling is unbecoming for a modern nation state
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
They are just drafting plans. They are not actually evacuating.
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There is only one scenario I can see where any nation could evacuate 10 of thousands of their foreign nationals out of Taiwan.
That would be a slow walk block-aid of Taiwan be China.
It’s a possibility china might try this under the guise of at sea inspection of inbound and out bound ships.
This also were the sea conflict could start and escalate quickly depending how the US reacted.
If China regularly began harassing air and sea routes into Taiwan it could turn into a hair ball really fast and cause all kinds of opportunities for missteps and mishaps.
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As well as it would be in keeping with Chinas past actions and claims over sovereign control of the South China Sea.
 
Defcon0 said:
Then comes the Taiwan question…2035/2040
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🟡ANYLISIS🟡
Neither dates. The blockade and ultimately the invasion of Taiwan will occur much, much sooner. US is giving China no other choice but to act soon.

Many like to say "China is watching Russia's invasion of Ukraine, learning from them, and Western actions". That is very right.

They have learned if they have any chance of taking Taiwan without getting stuck in a quagmire like Russia they need to do it quickly before the US does start to flood Taiwan with weapons.

With very loud and bold statements coming from both DEM and GOP congressional leaders to arm Taiwan and quickly ONLY moves up the date for China to act. We are giving China no choice but to take action now/soon or never once US weapons start to flood Taiwan soon.

(This is the anylisis I have given in DWS Staff Discussion)​
 
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DarkNoon said:
They have learned if they have any chance of taking Taiwan without getting stuck in a quagmire like Russia they need to do it quickly before the US starts flooding Taiwan with weapons.
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I would have to agree with this.

Honestly, I would have invaded already if I was China.

But there is the the theory of a soft takeover. Already, China has an ally ready to take over the Taiwan presidency if he can get it. We saw this happen with Georgia.

Maybe they are waiting to see if they can go this route.
 
There are economic numbers out their regarding chines manufacturing. The profit margin on chines exports are around 1.3%. Most of China lending internally just goes to keep chines people working and sufficiently low unemployment.

If and when China Yuan can no longer subsidize chines manufacturing then they will be in a world of hurt.
They have economic gain in taking taiwans semi-conductor manf off line. It hurts the world economy thus consequently hurts Chinas economy. As well as China is not able to capitalize on lost chip manufacturing from Taiwan because they don’t nor can manufacture the type of chips from Taiwanese semi-conductor.
It’s just a no go.
All they can do is feint and bluff at conflict with Taiwan.
I also read a good assessment on Chinas carrier. They do not even have a complete carrier strike group to defend their carrier. There could be anywhere between 2-3 US carrier strike groups as well as 2 light carriers from Japan. Plus aircraft from four or five allied nations in west pac and long range US bombers. It is simply not a comparable.
China also has to remember that at any given time they will have millions of dollars in exports at sea subject to seizure and well as any interruption Middle East oil.
If it’s going to be a war they need to realize the full consequences of that choice.
Their best hope is a orchestrated coup in Taiwan. I’m pretty sure the Koumintang party in Taiwan would have no qualms rounding up and arresting any Chinese subversive in a conflict.
 
Seriously said:
It will be contested straight away verbally then with force
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How long time will go with condemnation and speeches?? and you think taiwan will shoot first? Looking at Taiwans energy consumption, the island will have to ration right away and stop most manufacturering capacities.
 
Erecon said:
How long time will go with condemnation and speeches??
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Once major US companies can't upgrade their computer systems, or new companies can't build their computer systems for their businesses which every business from Ma & Pa to your top 500 depend on. Maybe when we can't build our weapons anymore.

As Mike Pompeo said every single Americans life is interconnected and highly dependent on Taiwan semiconductors manufacturing. It is in ever essence one of the most important national security matters that will be attempted to be resolved by any means or face certain total economic destruction the US or the world has never seen before ever.
 
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