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US-PRC-ROC | Jan-April 11th | REPORTS

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What's the current threat analysis of a possible blockade of Taiwan? Let's say it happens and the US starts moving assets and manpower to the island via ship convoys and cargo planes, and something gets sunk or large amounts of aid is destroyed. How much of fast track to a nuclear altercation are we on? I know that's a hard thing to speculate, I just think this could snowball much faster than Ukraine.
 
Peter Griffin said:
What's the current threat analysis of a possible blockade of Taiwan? Let's say it happens and the US starts moving assets and manpower to the island via ship convoys and cargo planes, and something gets sunk or large amounts of aid is destroyed. How much of fast track to a nuclear altercation are we on? I know that's a hard thing to speculate, I just think this could snowball much faster than Ukraine.
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It's not a blockade. It's a naval exercise. I wouldn't be too hasty to over-analyse this. Don't let it keep you up at night.
I'm thinking it'll end once we get past the third and final day of the exercise. If it doesn't end on the third day, then I'll be concerned.
 
DarkNoon 🇺🇦 said:
I would not be surprised if Taiwan & US already have plans to ensures China gains nothing but a pile of useless rubble.

Without a doubt if Taiwan starts to lose they/we will destroy all the chip factories, then brain drain the nation of all the tech people who know how to make high end chips send them to America. Even with a blockade I'm sure it will be possible to smuggle people out of Taiwan before their collapse.

Taiwan & The US will make sure China chokes on Taiwan when they try to swallow it.
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This discounts the Taiwanese resolve to to defend their sovereignty. Sure, perhaps they will destroy some facilities once they are taken by the Chinese. But I don't see them willing to destroy generations of progress and the source of their leverage over the west. If that happens then the US would be more so inclined to push for peace talks.
 
Peter Griffin said:
just think this could snowball much faster than Ukraine.
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Well first off... we had a month plus warning and work up to the invasion with Russia over Ukraine because again that key word **invasion** takes a lot of resources one cannot do on a whim or unnoticed.

But a blockade is enitely different than a invasion so no comparisons can really be made between Ukraine Invasion and a Taiwan blockade.

China wouldn't need a lot of time or a whole lottta resources to enforce a effective blockade around Taiwan. In fact what they have there now would do a decent job in pulling off a blockade.
 
Peter Griffin said:
How much of fast track
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As for how fast it escalates? Well give it a week with no high end manufacturered chips flowing in the Western markets and see how fast we are to react.

Our entire world depends A LOT on what Taiwan makes, not all of it but a good chunck. A week without their semiconductors and you just effectively hung the Western economies to dry up and die. You think where just going to sit by and let that happen? Nope!
 
Friendly Engineer said:
It's not a blockade. It's a naval exercise. I wouldn't be too hasty to over-analyse this. Don't let it keep you up at night.
I'm thinking it'll end once we get past the third and final day of the exercise. If it doesn't end on the third day, then I'll be concerned.
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Honestly the only thing that worries me is human error than anything else but at that point I might as well bunker down because that can happen to anything and everything we humans manage.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
It's not a blockade. It's a naval exercise. I wouldn't be too hasty to over-analyse this. Don't let it keep you up at night.
I'm thinking it'll end once we get past the third and final day of the exercise. If it doesn't end on the third day, then I'll be concerned.
Click to expand...
Not saying it is. That's why I labeled it as hypothetical. Also we should learn that from the atmosphere of the moments before Ukraine was invaded. The russians were just training right up until they weren't. Also I don't see this turning into a blockade as much as a rapid deployment of marines and rocket support to overwhelm the Taiwanese as fast as possible. The only way the Chinese can win is if they gain control of the island as fast as possible and they know this.
 
Peter Griffin said:
What's the current threat analysis of a possible blockade of Taiwan? Let's say it happens and the US starts moving assets and manpower to the island via ship convoys and cargo planes, and something gets sunk or large amounts of aid is destroyed. How much of fast track to a nuclear altercation are we on? I know that's a hard thing to speculate, I just think this could snowball much faster than Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Nuclear altercation isn't on my mind at the moment. I don't think it's likely in the near future. Realistically a nuclear conflict could only occur if China & the US were in a shooting war and one side decides to escalate.
We are nowhere near that point, and I doubt we will get to that point.
 
Peter Griffin said:
Not saying it is. That's why I labeled it as hypothetical. Also we should learn that from the atmosphere of the moments before Ukraine was invaded. The russians were just training right up until they weren't. Also I don't see this turning into a blockade as much as a rapid deployment of marines and rocket support to overwhelm the Taiwanese as fast as possible. The only way the Chinese can win is if they gain control of the island as fast as possible and they know this.
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The Chinese have self-imposed a 3 day time limit on these exercises. We're on day 2 at the moment. I don't think the atmosphere is anything like the Russian exercises, remember, we were getting lots of warnings weeks/months in advance that these weren't simple training exercises. Even the intelligence community said so.
 
This whole thing reminds me a lot of how things were in eastern europe prior to the war. They chinese simulated this last year too iirc, similar to how russia did its thing months before the real one.
 
Friendly Engineer said:
It's not a blockade. It's a naval exercise. I wouldn't be too hasty to over-analyse this. Don't let it keep you up at night.
I'm thinking it'll end once we get past the third and final day of the exercise. If it doesn't end on the third day, then I'll be concerned.
Click to expand...
Even then it won't go from 0- nuclear. China is happy to fight anyone or everyone conventionally over Taiwan.
 
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