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War Game This...

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Lostpuppy

Lostpuppy

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Mar 3, 2022
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Shakelton Crater
Hello members,
Lets create an opportunity the board game out US Israel war against Iran
We currently have very heated debates on the issues.
We have members who dive it with questions on fears on escalation. Understandable, and so.

Keep our debate online with realistic scenario,
No fake news only work with real time current data.
Keep political bias out ,
civilian lives are at stake
No fear mongering
be polite and respect each others opinions.
Reveal both sides of the battles perspective.
Consider all spheres of influence with warring sides.
Consider cause and effect.
ask can alternative actions be made
Some moves can be taken back,
Plan on your input to be criticed

Consider this war may or maynot extend to other regions( consider impacts?)
Do this war effect other wars, or potential wars.
How csn peace be made?
back you information with sound, testable prognostacations
But above all be kind to each and think of thoses guests as they witness it unfold.

Game on
 
The easy answer is Iran surrenders,
No i don’ win!
Take a look at how they are fighting back agaisnt the Israeli/US ONSLAUGHT!

I think they are pretty darn mad!
US leadership commrnt attuned to “ I can stop the war , when i feel”

I see the war extending at 3 weeks at present, oil prices will higher, prices of food and car gas higher,,,,

Allies threatened with tarrifs and reluctant to join a war they didnt start.

Russia isnt going to join the US side to fight Iran,

Is there really any WMD issues?

The US has control of Venzuela oil, could they make sure the countries effected by the closer and win favor?

The GCC countries likely wont put boots on ground.

China wont send ships as they them for country of Taiwan but they will support Iran in supply and tech,,
North Korea, non player

What can happen?
 
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Perhaps lets get into Why? Did this war start, Who started it,
Yes one statement is Iran has been a bad actor for along time,

Its not an Article 5 NATO situation.

Can the Bored of Peace fix it?

Will there ever be peace
 

Russia and China: Gaining from the war with Iran? | State of Play​

www.csis.org

Russia and China: Gaining from the war with Iran? | State of Play | CSIS Events

The CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department invites you to a live episode of State of Play to explore the implications of the war with Iran for China and Russia on Monday 16 March at 4:00pm. The discussion will feature Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Maria Snegovaya, and Will Todman.
www.csis.org www.csis.org
 
Lostpuppy said:
Iran surrenders
Click to expand...
No they don't. Iran's leaders are underground and protected. The IRGC is outside quelling the population.

No chance Iran surrenders unless the West destroys their economy and plunges Iran into economic chaos. But that would threaten China oil and destabilise and already rickety oil market. So the odds of that happening are low.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
No they don't. Iran's leaders are underground and protected. The IRGC is outside quelling the population.

No chance Iran surrenders unless the West destroys their economy and plunges Iran into economic chaos. But that would threaten China oil and destabilise and already rickety oil market. So the odds of that happening are low.
Click to expand...
Nice! So Can you expand,
Are there easy solutions?
China oil is somewhat threatened, noting reductions in external ssles.
What kind of actions could possibly be taken to achieve a better solution?🏴‍☠👍🏻
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
No they don't. Iran's leaders are underground and protected. The IRGC is outside quelling the population.

No chance Iran surrenders unless the West destroys their economy and plunges Iran into economic chaos. But that would threaten China oil and destabilise and already rickety oil market. So the odds of that happening are low.
Click to expand...
agree, while I can't tell if it is the president being who he is or an actual threat he does keep saying he is going to hit the Iranian Oil infrastructure, I can't tell if it is real or just him talking.

China would hurt from a disruption in oil from Iran but they could get by and find other suppliers, it would not be ideal and it would be costly but they could do it, I am not sure it would be enough to ignite a conflict between the US and China ( I personally doubt it). so it would change the game in China's eye's but I don't think it would directly lead to a conflict, sure it would escalate things and be a stepping stone to a conflict but being the trigger that ignites it I do not think so.

I am not sure why we were not dropping weapons and ammunition for the Iranian people to use all this time, when the protests were really going on we should have given the people the ability to defend themselves, while I agree things will not change from the air alone, I do not think it needs to be US boots on the ground.

but I do fear that that chance has been wasted, the people are too scared to fight back now and are now just trying to survive.
 
Lostpuppy said:
What kind of actions could possibly be taken to achieve a better solution?🏴‍☠👍🏻
Click to expand...
Solutions are hard to come by.

You can't threaten China's oil. Doing so risks pulling them in on Iran's side.

Could always take over Iran's island, take Iran's oil, and then sell it to China. Iran would be hard pressed to interfere because then China would come in against Iran. 'Course, that oil won't last forever.

A second option would be to sabotage Iran's oil line. Kill their economy and have plausible deniability with China.

Me? I would destroy Iran's communications and take it over. Proclaim a new government. With the official government silenced, Iran would have a hard time countering that.

Baring that, though, the economy is Iran's weakness. Look at Cuba for an example. They're coming to the table because the US is strangling them.

Harder to do when Iran has China dependent on oil. But if the US could find a way to deal with that, keep China supplied, Iran loses its only large ally and becomes vulnerable to economic attack.
 
What’s undeniable I think is everything till now has been done to try and not destroy Irans economy and infrastructure.
China might provide back door economic and military intelligence.
But the longer this goes on that becomes counter productive to them just as much as everyone else.

The IRGC foot soldiers and police units in Iran need crushed now. Without them the Iranian gov is dead.

Again don’t look for historical scenarios of how this might escalate. It’s not the 90’s.
All the gulf states are standing with the US and Israeli actions.
Russia is head down in the war in Ukraine. They’re being lured to stay out of it to one degree of the other.

China has some capacity to influence it. But what is in Chinas best interest? Instability and long term elevated oil prices, or stability and predictable oil market. Turkey has stayed relatively neutral in all this. Pakistan has bilateral agreements with Saudi Arabia.

So an expansion in any direction is counter beneficial to everyone.
 
Briefly on presidential bluster, his profile suggest telegraph testing,
Simply say something , pop a threat!
Watch reaction, assess, plan, act.
We are seeing seeing the outcomes at present,

On the field of oil economics, China needs oil from Iran, so far china oil has not been molested by Iran,
China oil from Venezuela has been effected. China is taking vast amounts of discounted oil from Russia

The GCC oil states are disrupted snd their petro dollar is disrupted,

Currently India has large capacity to refine,
Kazakstan is lary US oil investment.

Being a game show host, put on the thinking cap,
If US control oil from the americas, Africa, and now strongly influences oil in the Mid east,
Lets make a deal,
India washes Russia in favor of gaining oil production,
Leverage the oil production on China, and any other country for that matter,
Alliance are broken, to be remade, terms at my discretion.

Oil is my weapon of choice, profit is my motive, and i dont have to like you, i just have to have your money(resources)
 
Interesting thought, Iran saying running a toll on the straits. I did a brief run down on who is using the strait. based on posted goverment customs and excise document for last 2 years.

if they talk tolls, who collectes the money?
What is it used for? Reparations?
on reading the list, I am not sure if all parties will be happy🤔
 
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