Wargaming US & China Hypothetical Future Conflict to See if it Goes Nuclear

[DEFCON Warning System]

The assumption that the U.S. "wouldn’t nuke China over Taiwan" oversimplifies how modern escalation works.

We do have historical precedence. The US didn't nuke Korea. They didn't nuke Vietnam. Why would the US use nukes over Taiwan.

Now, I will couch that by assuming the conflict remains over Taiwan. If China decides to start attacking the US itself like Hawaii or California, then we are talking about a different kind of war.

Does anyone see China attacking the US itself over China?

 

[NuclearID]

We do have historical precedence. The US didn't nuke Korea. They didn't nuke Vietnam. Why would the US use nukes over Taiwan.

Now, I will couch that by assuming the conflict remains over Taiwan. If China decides to start attacking the US itself like Hawaii or California, then we are talking about a different kind of war.

Does anyone see China attacking the US itself over China?

The Korea/Vietnam precedent do not hold here imo. That was at time a bipolar world with clear lines, proxy wars, and understood escalation boundaries with the main aggressor the Soviets. Not the case with CCP.

Nukes are not only used as retaliation for homeland strikes... They’re also used when escalation blindsides leadership and conventional forces start to lose high value assets especially at sea. If China sinks a U.S. carrier, or if we cripple a Chinese space or command system, you don't need Hawaii to get hit before things spiral... likly first nuclear exchange will occur in international waters then widen to land targets most likly shortly thereafter.

This won’t be decided in textbooks. It'll be decided in the fog, with fragmented comms, overreactions, and no off ramps. That’s how things go nuclear. Not because anyone plans to but because neither side plans not to well enough.

 

[NCDinosFan]

I don't feel like fighting over Chinese Taipei is reasonable. It's like China invading Guam or Hawaii.

Republic of China includes Chinese Taipei.

United States includes Hawaii, Guam, Alaska.

 

[NuclearID]

I don't feel like fighting over Chinese Taipei is reasonable. It's like China invading Guam or Hawaii.

Since when have wars gone the way they where planned/intened? Escalation does not give a danm about reason and when communication and other intelligence assest go, that's when people in power or military get itchy.

 

[NCDinosFan]

Since when have wars gone the way they where planned? Escalation doesn't care about reason and when communication and other intelligence assest go, that's when people in power or military get itchy.

But why would we go over to that side of the world and initiate a war over a country already apart of the Republic of China.

That's like them taking of attacking a Territory of the United States. The closest thing we had to that was them poisoning the education system in San Fran.

But honestly this just seems like an argument that happens every other month with us and China.

Outside countries have no place to speak on the internal workings of a nation's territory.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

and understood escalation boundaries with the main aggressor the Soviets. Not the case with CCP.

Why do you think China does not understand escalation boundaries?

They’re also used when escalation blindsides leadership and conventional forces start to lose high value assets especially at sea.

That depends. Let's say China uses coventional forces and wipes out the American fleet around Taiwan. Do you think the US would nuke China in response? Why?

Reverse it. The US obliterates China's naval assets around Taiwan. Does China respond by nuking the American fleet?

 

[NuclearID]

But why would we go over to that side of the world and initiate a war over a country already apart of the Republic of China.

That's like them taking of attacking a Territory of the United States. The closest thing we had to that was them poisoning the education system in San Fran.

But honestly this just seems like an argument that happens every other month with us and China.

Outside countries have no place to speak on the internal workings of a nation's territory.

You're trying to apply rational peacetime logic to wartime escalation. That’s not how it works. Lol

Wars aren't launched purely on clean legal or territorial definitions they escalate from perception, posture, and missteps.

Taiwan isn’t just “internal Chinese politics.” It’s a strategic flashpoint between two nuclear powers, each with alliances, **privately held red lines**, and much more I won't repeat again.

If the U.S. and China go to war, it won’t matter how the conflict started it’ll matter how fast it spirals once someone loses a carrier group, a satellite constellation, or a key radar chain.

Let’s be real with ourselves here... no country with major global trade, military presence, and nuclear assets sits back when a rival redraws borders by force. Regardless many more ways a war can start besides Taiwan.

This isn’t about taking sides. It’s about understanding how history actually unfolds... not how we wish it would.

 

[NuclearID]

Why do you think China does not understand escalation boundaries?

Did you type that with a straight face? Asking for real...

Just ask India, Vietnam, the Philippines, or Taiwan how well China respects escalation boundaries. Hell, even Australia’s gotten a taste.

China plays brinkmanship like a sport. Constant probing, salami slicing, unmarked militia ships, and gray zone ops. And that’s exactly what makes escalation with them dangerous.

 

[NCDinosFan]

You're trying to apply rational peacetime logic to wartime escalation. That’s not how it works. Lol

Wars aren't launched purely on clean legal or territorial definitions they escalate from perception, posture, and missteps.

Taiwan isn’t just “internal Chinese politics.” It’s a strategic flashpoint between two nuclear powers, each with alliances, **privately held red lines**, and much more I won't repeat again.

If the U.S. and China go to war, it won’t matter how the conflict started it’ll matter how fast it spirals once someone loses a carrier group, a satellite constellation, or a key radar chain.

Let’s be real with ourselves here... no country with major global trade, military presence, and nuclear assets sits back when a rival redraws borders by force. We didn’t do that in Korea. We didn’t do that in Kuwait. We’re not doing that with Taiwan either.

This isn’t about taking sides. It’s about understanding how history actually unfolds... not how we wish it would.

Russia did it during the Cold war. We did it during the Cold war with the nuclear weapons being documented and within historical context after heightened tensions being used as defense. Each country was afraid of an attack on the homeland as the justification for nuclear exchange: not Territories.

Nazi Germany when developing the bomb held the same view, same for modern day Israel.

It's a weapon used for homeland defense in the modern era.

 

[NuclearID]

Russia did it during the Cold war. We did it during the Cold war with the nuclear weapons being documented and within historical context after heightened tensions being used as defense. Each country was afraid of an attack on the homeland as the justification for nuclear exchange: not Territories.

Nazi Germany when developing the bomb held the same view, same for modern day Israel.

It's a weapon used for homeland defense in the modern era.

Sigh... already addressed this with director. That's not how it works.

The Korea/Vietnam precedent do not hold here imo. That was at time a bipolar world with clear lines, proxy wars, and understood escalation boundaries with the main aggressor the Soviets. Not the case with CCP.

 

[NCDinosFan]

already addressed this with director.

Why clan mentality other countries and their actions when they are doing the same thing as your country.

You can't blame Russia for the Cold war as it was both America and Russia putting petal to the metal with the ending point being a removal of missiles from turky and Cuba on a mutual agreement. Both counties were enforcing and flipping countries.

If America was superior in every way they claimed they would have killed Russia. Because we claimed so much that Russia didn't have working nukes or as many as they claimed, or they weren't quality, and we were technically superior.

Even though the Russians were in space first. Which we then claimed they were doing something evil up there and created a whole issue out of that.

Russia made a really good supersonic jet and then we claimed they were making it to bomb the homeland even after we found out it doesn't have the fuel range for it.

We continue to fearmonger on what we make, and they do the same. None of it ever turns out to be what we expected while both countries propagandize their people over time to brainwash them from the common ground of humanity.

During American policy for all pressure on Russia that led to nuclear tension due to fake reports of a nuclear launch which one man prevented the world from being destroyed. America put a campaign of pressure and flying very close and even over Russian airspace (documented).

Kennedy even said the escalation between the two countries is idiotic and highlighted human behavior of retaliation, but that very idea from a great American is constantly buried in light for something better for propaganda, aka they just want to kill us so we need to kill them.

 

[NuclearID]

Why clan mentality other countries and their actions when they are doing the same thing as your country.

You can't blame Russia for the Cold war as it was both America and Russia putting petal to the metal with the ending point being a removal of missiles from turky and Cuba on a mutual agreement. Both counties were enforcing and flipping countries.

If America was superior in every way they claimed they would have killed Russia. Because we claimed so much that Russia didn't have working nukes or as many as they claimed, or they weren't quality, and we were technically superior.

Even though the Russians were in space first. Which we then claimed they were doing something evil up there and created a whole issue out of that.

Russia made a really good supersonic jet and then we claimed they were making it to bomb the homeland even after we found out it doesn't have the fuel range for it.

We continue to fearmonger on what we make, and they do the same. None of it ever turns out to be what we expected while both countries propagandize their people over time to brainwash them from the common ground of humanity.

Again you're trying to apply rational peacetime logic to wartime escalation. That’s not how it works. Lol

Wars aren't launched purely on clean legal or territorial definitions they escalate from perception, posture, and missteps.

 

[NCDinosFan]

Again you're trying to apply rational peacetime logic to wartime escalation. That’s not how it works. Lol

Wars aren't launched purely on clean legal or territorial definitions they escalate from perception, posture, and missteps.

And once again, both sides cause it. You can't blame a single side.

Both groups allowed and emboldened the situation to happen. It's like when you're at a food place and a mistake happens and you somehow take it personally. Or you're at baseball park and someone falls over on accident. Or you are braking too hard and someone hits your car eventually.

 

[NuclearID]

And once again, both sides cause it. You can't blame a single side.

Both groups allowed and emboldened the situation to happen. It's like when you're at a food place and a mistake happens and you somehow take it personally. Or you're at baseball part and someone falls over on accident. Or you are braking too hard and someone hits your car eventually.

You can moralize history all you want but the physics of escalation does not care.

 

[NCDinosFan]

You can moralize history all you want but the physics of escalation does not care.

But you're blaming everyone but your own country when your country also is initiating in on the degeneracy.

 

[NuclearID]

But you're blaming everyone but your own country when your country also is initiating in on the degeneracy.

Degeneracy doesn’t trigger launch protocols... Escalation chains do. Now circle back to

You can moralize history all you want but the physics of escalation does not care.

 

[NCDinosFan]

Degeneracy doesn’t trigger launch protocols... Escalation chains do. Now circle back to

But why are you avoiding the comment that your country does the same as many others; can you admit your own country has done the same many other do, and they have the same reaction as most non-religion based countries?

 

[NuclearID]

But why are you avoiding the comment that your country does the same as many others; can you admit your own country has done the same many other do, and they have the same reaction as most non-religion based countries?

You’re arguing ethics & morality. I’m explaining real world mechanics. If you can’t tell the difference, that’s not my problem.

 

[Deleted account]

We do have historical precedence. The US didn't nuke Korea. They didn't nuke Vietnam. Why would the US use nukes over Taiwan.

They came perilously close. MacArthur did formally apply to the WH to allow him to drop a bunch of nukes on targets along the Korean/Chinese border, as well as on... Vladivostok(!) There's anecdotal evidence that this actually forced Truman's hand in dismissing him - he came to be regarded as too much of a loose cannon.

Now, I will couch that by assuming the conflict remains over Taiwan. If China decides to start attacking the US itself like Hawaii or California, then we are talking about a different kind of war.

Does anyone see China attacking the US itself over China?

China has engaged in a large-scale expansion of its strategic nuclear arsenal. There are conflicting opinions as to why they're doing it - the one I subscribe to is that it's because they want to achieve sufficient deterrence to push this conflict down into the conventional zone, where they believe they will have the advantage. This would also explain why they leaned on Putin to not use nukes in his war with Ukraine.

My take is: China probably does not want a hot war with the US, but is prepared for one if the US steps in to defend Taiwan. Since it looks like China will be invading, the question "where do we go from here?" should be addressed to the WH.

 

[NCDinosFan]

You’re arguing ethics & morality. I’m explaining real world mechanics. If you can’t tell the difference, that’s not my problem.

So you won't even have a mutual ground that your country does exactly what many other do in the same instance. If we had china over here doing what we did over there, we'd be pissed too. In fact Russia was just over in Cuba and we were pissed.

It's whitewashing and you'll never see eye to eye or hold others in a human re guard till you see eye to eye. It's people who are unable to see the enemy as human that are the issue and lead to this.